Value
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.9 |
| P/S | 4.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.5 |
| PEG | 7.9 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.85
HLNE · Why this verdict
Why Hamilton Lane (HLNE) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.5/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Hamilton Lane is a high-quality asset manager with strong margins, a four-quarter earnings beat streak, and a deeply discounted valuation — but a confirmed death cross and declining revenue create meaningful near-term headwinds that must resolve before the full value proposition can be captured.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with the average quarterly beat running roughly 23 percentage points above consensus — a pattern of consistently under-promising and over-delivering that suggests disciplined guidance practices. Earnings | Average EPS beat remains above 5% and no quarterly misses occur over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue has been declining at approximately 2% annually; if fee income continues contracting, future earnings estimates will be set at lower levels, reducing the room to beat and potentially ending the streak. | ||
The business generates a 32% return on equity, sustains 33% net margins, and converts 122% of net income into free cash flow — a combination reflecting strong capital efficiency and earnings quality within asset management. Quality breakdown | Net margin holds above 30% and free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue is declining at roughly 2% annually; sustained top-line contraction can erode even strong margin structures over time if fee income is under pressure, making margin maintenance increasingly dependent on cost discipline rather than growth. | ||
The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of roughly 11 times with a PEG of 0.44, and analysts' consensus target implies about 44% headroom from the current price — producing a risk/reward ratio of more than 6-to-1 in favor of the long. Price targets | The share price advances at least 20% toward the analyst consensus target over the next 12 months as the valuation discount narrows. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe upside case assumes earnings momentum holds; if revenue decline accelerates, consensus estimates will be revised lower, compressing the target and shrinking the apparent discount. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the trend slope falling roughly 8% over the prior 30 days, RSI near 33, and a death cross has formed — a configuration that typically limits near-term price recovery even for fundamentally sound businesses. Warnings | The stock should cross back above its 200-day moving average and hold there for at least 4 consecutive weeks over the next 12 months to confirm the technical headwind has lifted. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterVolume accumulation (rising OBV) and a deeply discounted forward multiple could attract buyers at current levels before the moving-average structure fully repairs, shortening the duration of the downward pressure. | ||
The business has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with the average quarterly beat running roughly 23 percentage points above consensus — a pattern of consistently under-promising and over-delivering that suggests disciplined guidance practices.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Average EPS beat remains above 5% and no quarterly misses occur over the next four quarters.
CounterRevenue has been declining at approximately 2% annually; if fee income continues contracting, future earnings estimates will be set at lower levels, reducing the room to beat and potentially ending the streak.
The business generates a 32% return on equity, sustains 33% net margins, and converts 122% of net income into free cash flow — a combination reflecting strong capital efficiency and earnings quality within asset management.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin holds above 30% and free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income over the next four quarters.
CounterRevenue is declining at roughly 2% annually; sustained top-line contraction can erode even strong margin structures over time if fee income is under pressure, making margin maintenance increasingly dependent on cost discipline rather than growth.
The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of roughly 11 times with a PEG of 0.44, and analysts' consensus target implies about 44% headroom from the current price — producing a risk/reward ratio of more than 6-to-1 in favor of the long.
↓DeterioratingPrice targets
- Expectation
- The share price advances at least 20% toward the analyst consensus target over the next 12 months as the valuation discount narrows.
CounterThe upside case assumes earnings momentum holds; if revenue decline accelerates, consensus estimates will be revised lower, compressing the target and shrinking the apparent discount.
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the trend slope falling roughly 8% over the prior 30 days, RSI near 33, and a death cross has formed — a configuration that typically limits near-term price recovery even for fundamentally sound businesses.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- The stock should cross back above its 200-day moving average and hold there for at least 4 consecutive weeks over the next 12 months to confirm the technical headwind has lifted.
CounterVolume accumulation (rising OBV) and a deeply discounted forward multiple could attract buyers at current levels before the moving-average structure fully repairs, shortening the duration of the downward pressure.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 7.2 |
| Gross margin | 8.1 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.9 |
| FCF quality | 6.2 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 32%
- ▸Strong margins: 32%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 56% YoY
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 1.9 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 3.8 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 86)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.8 |
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 8.1 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.57 (n=3)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 24%
Insider
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 8.0 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider buying — $14,241,108 (0.212% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
7.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.7 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 9.4 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
1.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.4 |
| support resistance | 0.6 |
| 52w position | 3.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.8 |
| days to cover | 6.2 |
| volatility | 2.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.2 |
| beta | 6.3 |
| debt equity | 9.1 |
- ▸High IV: 67%
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 2.4% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.85, quality 8.8/10, growth 10.0/10).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:83d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=8.8>=7.5+momentum=6.3>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
0.55
Upside
+8.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 86
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 8.8 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 0.55 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 8.8, and Insider at 8.2; the weakest are Technical at 1.4, Risk (lower is worse) at 5.7, and Momentum at 6.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.55 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Outperformance
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2High Quality Margins And Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 80% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Deep Valuation Discount Wide Upside
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target compresses below $82 in 2 consecutive quarterly revisions.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend Technical Headwind
Trip ifRSI rises above 50 and the 30-day moving average slope turns positive for 2 consecutive months.