Value
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.4 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
HIPO · Why this verdict
Why Hippo Holdings (HIPO) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Hippo is a fast-growing property and casualty insurer (29% YoY) with a perfect 4-quarter beat streak and excellent cash conversion, but the stock is already above its analyst target and depends heavily on a single reinsurer.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Cash conversion is excellent at 765% FCF/NI, with a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above net income and Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or higher. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterReturns are weak (ROE 2.4/10, ROA 0.6/10), and quality ranks near the bottom of peers at 1.5/10. | ||
Revenue is growing 29% YoY and the company is an industry growth leader, with quarterly revenue rising to $156.0M. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue climbs toward the $162.4M estimate and beyond over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterEarnings growth scores 0.0/10, so rapid revenue growth has not yet translated into earnings growth. | ||
Hippo has beaten estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about 160%. Earnings track record | Beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterHuge percentage surprises come off a very small earnings base and are volatile, so a streak of beats is not a reliable forecast. | ||
The price of $36.63 is above the $34.74 analyst target, with upside of -5.1% against 12.6% downside. Warnings | Analysts raise targets above the current price, or price retreats toward the target. | ↑Improving |
| CounterCoverage is light (4.0, signal dampened) and a breakout setup with golden cross and bullish MACD could keep the stock rising past stale targets. | ||
Counterparty concentration is a key risk, with reliance on a single reinsurer in the builder channel, in a binary insurance industry. Bear case | Reinsurance relationships diversify without a rise in ceded costs over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterLoss of or repricing by the key reinsurer, or a catastrophe season, could sharply cut earnings in a property insurer. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent at 765% FCF/NI, with a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above net income and Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or higher.
CounterReturns are weak (ROE 2.4/10, ROA 0.6/10), and quality ranks near the bottom of peers at 1.5/10.
Revenue is growing 29% YoY and the company is an industry growth leader, with quarterly revenue rising to $156.0M.
↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue climbs toward the $162.4M estimate and beyond over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings growth scores 0.0/10, so rapid revenue growth has not yet translated into earnings growth.
Hippo has beaten estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about 160%.
→StableEarnings track record
- Expectation
- Beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterHuge percentage surprises come off a very small earnings base and are volatile, so a streak of beats is not a reliable forecast.
The price of $36.63 is above the $34.74 analyst target, with upside of -5.1% against 12.6% downside.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above the current price, or price retreats toward the target.
CounterCoverage is light (4.0, signal dampened) and a breakout setup with golden cross and bullish MACD could keep the stock rising past stale targets.
Counterparty concentration is a key risk, with reliance on a single reinsurer in the builder channel, in a binary insurance industry.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Reinsurance relationships diversify without a rise in ceded costs over 12 months.
CounterLoss of or repricing by the key reinsurer, or a catastrophe season, could sharply cut earnings in a property insurer.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.4 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 7.7 |
| Op margin | 2.6 |
| Net margin | 2.9 |
| Current ratio | 4.0 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 765% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
9.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 29% YoY
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 1.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.7 |
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 7.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.33 (n=3)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 20%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 8.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $571,582 (0.059% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.1 |
| quality rank | 1.5 |
| growth rank | 8.3 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.3 |
| support resistance | 5.0 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 5.5 |
| volatility | 2.8 |
| put call | 4.4 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| beta | 4.8 |
| debt equity | 9.6 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:113d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.23
Upside
+2.4%
Downside
10.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 9.9; weakest: Momentum at 3.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.9, Catalyst at 7.6, and Value at 6.9; the weakest are Momentum at 3.3, Peer rank at 5.0, and Quality at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.23 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Cash Conversion Moat
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 from current 7 of 9.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls more than 12% from the current $36.63.
- P5Single Reinsurer Concentration
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $120M from the latest $156.0M.