Value
8.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
HELE · Why this verdict
Why Helen of Troy (HELE) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Helen of Troy screens deeply cheap and shows constructive technical momentum, but business quality has fallen below the minimum acceptable floor and the risk/reward setup is unfavorable with an earnings report just days away.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Despite quality concerns, the stock is showing positive technical momentum, trading above its 200-day moving average with rising volume accumulation. Momentum breakdown | The stock should continue holding above the 200-day moving average with sustained volume accumulation over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe setup is technically range-bound with the RSI sitting in the middle of its range, so the current momentum reading does not yet signal a decisive breakout. | ||
The current risk/reward setup is unfavorable, with the potential downside to the stop-loss level exceeding the upside room, driven by shares already having reached their price target. Engine gate (failed) | The reward-to-risk balance would need to flip positive, either through a lower entry price or a higher target, for the setup to become attractive again. | →Stable |
| CounterThe company has beaten earnings in three of the last four quarters, most recently by 17.8%, and another report is due in just 4 days, a catalyst that could reset targets higher. | ||
Business quality has fallen below the minimum acceptable floor, scoring 3.5 out of 10 against a 4.0 threshold, with only moderate margins and no competitive moat cited as drivers. Quality breakdown | The quality score would need to climb back above the 4.0 floor via improved margins or moat characteristics for the position to become suitable to hold again. | →Stable |
| CounterThe business remains free-cash-flow positive with a 23.7% FCF yield, providing some cushion even while headline quality metrics screen weak. | ||
The stock is attractively valued, trading at a forward price/earnings multiple of just 6.9x with a PEG ratio of 0.06, among the cheapest readings in the value framework. Valuation breakdown | The multiple should re-rate higher toward peer levels if the business stabilizes over the next 12 months. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterThe shares have already reached the analyst price target with no remaining upside, and the cheap multiple itself reflects the market's discounting of below-floor business quality rather than an overlooked bargain. | ||
Options positioning is showing caution, with an elevated put/call ratio of 1.62 and high implied volatility of 131%, signaling the market is pricing in meaningful uncertainty around the name. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio and implied volatility should normalize lower if uncertainty around the name fades over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterElevated implied volatility is also consistent with the earnings report due in 4 days, which could resolve rather than persist as a standing risk. | ||
Despite quality concerns, the stock is showing positive technical momentum, trading above its 200-day moving average with rising volume accumulation.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock should continue holding above the 200-day moving average with sustained volume accumulation over the next 12 months.
CounterThe setup is technically range-bound with the RSI sitting in the middle of its range, so the current momentum reading does not yet signal a decisive breakout.
The current risk/reward setup is unfavorable, with the potential downside to the stop-loss level exceeding the upside room, driven by shares already having reached their price target.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The reward-to-risk balance would need to flip positive, either through a lower entry price or a higher target, for the setup to become attractive again.
CounterThe company has beaten earnings in three of the last four quarters, most recently by 17.8%, and another report is due in just 4 days, a catalyst that could reset targets higher.
Business quality has fallen below the minimum acceptable floor, scoring 3.5 out of 10 against a 4.0 threshold, with only moderate margins and no competitive moat cited as drivers.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The quality score would need to climb back above the 4.0 floor via improved margins or moat characteristics for the position to become suitable to hold again.
CounterThe business remains free-cash-flow positive with a 23.7% FCF yield, providing some cushion even while headline quality metrics screen weak.
The stock is attractively valued, trading at a forward price/earnings multiple of just 6.9x with a PEG ratio of 0.06, among the cheapest readings in the value framework.
Tripped→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The multiple should re-rate higher toward peer levels if the business stabilizes over the next 12 months.
CounterThe shares have already reached the analyst price target with no remaining upside, and the cheap multiple itself reflects the market's discounting of below-floor business quality rather than an overlooked bargain.
Options positioning is showing caution, with an elevated put/call ratio of 1.62 and high implied volatility of 131%, signaling the market is pricing in meaningful uncertainty around the name.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio and implied volatility should normalize lower if uncertainty around the name fades over the next 12 months.
CounterElevated implied volatility is also consistent with the earnings report due in 4 days, which could resolve rather than persist as a standing risk.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 3.0 |
| Gross margin | 5.1 |
| Op margin | 6.1 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.3 |
| FCF quality | 4.9 |
| Moat | 4.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 5%, FCF yield 12.9%)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 1.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.3 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 8.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.5 |
| support resistance | 6.7 |
| 52w position | 5.9 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.9 |
| days to cover | 6.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.8 |
| debt equity | 5.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.73
- ▸High IV: 70%
- ▸Above max pain $10
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:76d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.13
Upside
-1.8%
Downside
14.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.31>1.3, MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 8.3; weakest: Risk (lower is worse) at 3.4. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.3, Catalyst at 7.5, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.4, Momentum at 3.6, and Quality at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.13 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deeply Discounted ValuationTripped
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings multiple rises above 12x from the current 6.9x, closing the valuation discount.
- P2Quality Below Minimum Floor
Trip ifBusiness quality score rises above 4.0 from the current 3.5 reading, clearing the minimum floor.
- P3Positive Technical Momentum
Trip ifShares close below the 200-day moving average for 2 consecutive weeks, reversing the current above-trend position.
- P4Negative Risk Reward At Target
Trip ifThe reward-to-risk ratio rises above 0, reversing the current -0.78 negative reading.
- P5Elevated Options Positioning Risk
Trip ifImplied volatility falls below 80% from the current 131% level, signaling reduced uncertainty.