Warrior Met Coal (HCC) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $0.93
- Estimate
- $1.44
- Surprise
- -35.3%
- Revenue (period 2026-09-30)
- $507.9M
- Score at report (before → after)
- 6.5 → 6.4/10
Revenue source: xbrl.
How the report landed
Warrior Met Coal (HCC) missed the $1.44 estimate with adjusted EPS of $0.93 — a large 35.3% shortfall. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Hold (6.5/10) to Sell at 6.4/10 after the report.
Coverage in the report window
- Warrior Met Coal Q3 EPS $0.93 Misses $1.42 Estimate, Sales $507.928M Beat $499.714M Estimate — benzinga, 2026-11-04
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates HCC Sell at 6.4/10.
1 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's -35.3% surprise compares with a -12.9% four-quarter average.
What supports the rating
- Attractive valuation
- Strong growth profile
What argues against it
- Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 10.0× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.51× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
- Concentration risk — Commodity: steelmaking coal
- Concentration risk — Customer: five largest customers (56.0%)
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $80.92
- Price target
- $94.83
- Stop
- $75.26
- Upside to target
- +17.2%
- Reward-to-risk
- 1.8:1
The stock trades at 19.5× trailing but 10.0× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Risk check: trading volume is running 1.7× its average — elevated turnover around the report window.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-11-05 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
HCC at TrendMatrix's latest read
Materials producers report against the commodity cycle — realized-price capture and volume, not the EPS line, are the tells in a quarter like this.
- Industry
- Coking Coal
- Market cap
- $4.27B
- P/E (fwd)
- 10.0
- P/E (ttm)
- 19.5
- 52-week range
- $64.66–$111.42
- Off 52-week high
- 27.4%
- RSI (14)
- 33
- Volume vs avg
- 1.67×
- Score today
- 6.4/10