Warrior Met Coal (HCC) Q2 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $1.65
- Estimate
- $1.46
- Surprise
- +13.3%
- Score at report (before → after)
- 6.6 → 6.8/10
Revenue for this quarter isn’t shown: the reported figure hasn’t cleared TrendMatrix’s freshness and sanity checks yet, and consensus revenue isn’t tracked. EPS above is the available figure.
How the report landed
Warrior Met Coal (HCC) beat the $1.46 estimate with adjusted EPS of $1.65 — a large 13.3% upside surprise. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (6.6/10) to Hold at 6.8/10 after the report.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates HCC Sell at 6.5/10.
2 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +13.3% surprise compares with a +55.0% four-quarter average. Next scheduled report: 2026-11-04.
What supports the rating
- Attractive valuation
- Strong growth profile
What argues against it
- Concentration risk — Commodity: steelmaking coal
- Concentration risk — Customer: five largest customers (56.0%)
- Thin upside margin: 4.6%
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $90.24
- Price target
- $94.39
- Stop
- $84.69
- Upside to target
- +4.6%
- Reward-to-risk
- 0.5:1
The stock trades at 21.7× trailing but 13.2× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Risk check: RSI 23 — a level conventionally read as oversold.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-09-24 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
HCC at TrendMatrix's latest read
Materials producers report against the commodity cycle — realized-price capture and volume, not the EPS line, are the tells in a quarter like this.
- Industry
- Coking Coal
- Market cap
- $4.76B
- P/E (fwd)
- 13.2
- P/E (ttm)
- 21.7
- 52-week range
- $61.87–$111.42
- Off 52-week high
- 19.0%
- RSI (14)
- 23
- Volume vs avg
- 0.53×
- Score today
- 6.5/10