Value
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.3 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.4 |
| PEG | 6.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.24
HAE · Why this verdict
Why Haemonetics (HAE) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Haemonetics has delivered four consecutive quarterly earnings beats with estimates trending higher and converts cash at more than three times reported net income, but the stock has essentially reached its near-term price target — leaving only 4.5% of upside against a 7% defined downside at a 0.64-to-1 reward-to-risk ratio — while supply-chain concentration in key components adds an idiosyncratic risk that limits conviction.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten analyst estimates in each of the last four quarters with estimates trending upward, delivering beats of roughly 8%, 14%, 5%, and 1% from oldest to most recent — a clean track record of execution that supports the quality of management guidance. Earnings | Earnings beats continue for at least 2 more consecutive quarters with positive surprises above 3%, sustaining the current outperformance trend. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFour straight beats following rising estimates can become a setup for disappointment as expectations get too rich; maintaining the streak requires genuine acceleration rather than disciplined guidance once the base is elevated. | ||
Free cash flow is running at approximately 306% of reported net income, a level that suggests the business generates real economic cash far in excess of what the income statement reports, and a strong financial health score of 8 out of 9 corroborates the overall earnings quality. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow remains above 150% of net income for the next 4 quarters, confirming the conversion premium is structural rather than a single-quarter anomaly. | →Stable |
| CounterCash conversion at 306% of net income is far above sustainable norms and is likely influenced by working-capital timing or deferred items; normalization toward 100–150% would still be healthy but would remove the headline quality premium currently supporting valuation. | ||
At current prices, only about 4.5% of headroom remains to the near-term price target while the defined downside is approximately 7%, producing a risk-to-reward ratio of roughly 0.64-to-1 — a setup that does not reward new investment even in a quality business with a solid earnings track record. Price targets | The investment setup improves only if the target is revised materially higher, with implied upside expanding above 15% and the reward-to-risk ratio recovering above 1.5-to-1. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA quality medical-device business with rising earnings estimates can close a modest price-to-target gap quickly if the next earnings print materially exceeds consensus, prompting target upgrades that widen the upside before the next reporting cycle. | ||
The business carries multiple high-severity supply-chain concentration risks, including dependence on apheresis equipment sourced from Asia and a single manufacturing partner, exposing it to disruption risk not fully reflected in an otherwise clean earnings history. Bear case | Revenue misses consensus by less than 2% in each of the next 4 quarters, confirming the concentration risks have not materialized into operational disruptions. | ↑Improving |
| CounterLong-term supply relationships with single-source partners can reflect switching costs that benefit the company as much as the supplier; the concentration risk may be manageable if contracts guarantee supply continuity over the medium term. | ||
The company has beaten analyst estimates in each of the last four quarters with estimates trending upward, delivering beats of roughly 8%, 14%, 5%, and 1% from oldest to most recent — a clean track record of execution that supports the quality of management guidance.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beats continue for at least 2 more consecutive quarters with positive surprises above 3%, sustaining the current outperformance trend.
CounterFour straight beats following rising estimates can become a setup for disappointment as expectations get too rich; maintaining the streak requires genuine acceleration rather than disciplined guidance once the base is elevated.
Free cash flow is running at approximately 306% of reported net income, a level that suggests the business generates real economic cash far in excess of what the income statement reports, and a strong financial health score of 8 out of 9 corroborates the overall earnings quality.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow remains above 150% of net income for the next 4 quarters, confirming the conversion premium is structural rather than a single-quarter anomaly.
CounterCash conversion at 306% of net income is far above sustainable norms and is likely influenced by working-capital timing or deferred items; normalization toward 100–150% would still be healthy but would remove the headline quality premium currently supporting valuation.
At current prices, only about 4.5% of headroom remains to the near-term price target while the defined downside is approximately 7%, producing a risk-to-reward ratio of roughly 0.64-to-1 — a setup that does not reward new investment even in a quality business with a solid earnings track record.
Tripped↓DeterioratingPrice targets
- Expectation
- The investment setup improves only if the target is revised materially higher, with implied upside expanding above 15% and the reward-to-risk ratio recovering above 1.5-to-1.
CounterA quality medical-device business with rising earnings estimates can close a modest price-to-target gap quickly if the next earnings print materially exceeds consensus, prompting target upgrades that widen the upside before the next reporting cycle.
The business carries multiple high-severity supply-chain concentration risks, including dependence on apheresis equipment sourced from Asia and a single manufacturing partner, exposing it to disruption risk not fully reflected in an otherwise clean earnings history.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue misses consensus by less than 2% in each of the next 4 quarters, confirming the concentration risks have not materialized into operational disruptions.
CounterLong-term supply relationships with single-source partners can reflect switching costs that benefit the company as much as the supplier; the concentration risk may be manageable if contracts guarantee supply continuity over the medium term.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.0 |
| ROA | 4.3 |
| Gross margin | 7.9 |
| Op margin | 5.6 |
| Net margin | 3.6 |
| Current ratio | 9.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 306% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
3.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.7 |
Momentum
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 3.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 6.4 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.55 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.2 |
| quality rank | 6.8 |
| growth rank | 2.7 |
Technical
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.5 |
| support resistance | 1.2 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.7 |
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 4.4 |
| beta | 9.9 |
| debt equity | 3.8 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.1 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:16d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.51
Upside
-4.6%
Downside
9.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 16d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Insider at 7.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.51 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Sentiment at 7.1, and Quality at 6.7; the weakest are Technical at 3.3, Growth at 3.7, and Peer rank at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.51 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Execution
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for any 1 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Exceptional Cash Conversion Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow drops below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Price At Target Thin UpsideTripped
Trip ifImplied upside to the analyst price target expands above 15%, with reward-to-risk recovering above 1.5-to-1.
- P4Supply Chain Concentration Risk
Trip ifRevenue misses consensus by more than 5% in 2 consecutive quarters.