Value
3.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 3.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.8 |
| p ocf | 6.5 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 16.6x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
GTY · Why this verdict
Why Getty Realty (GTY) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Getty Realty is a high-quality real estate business — Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9, free cash flow at 136% of net income, and strong margins at 40% — with a consistent earnings delivery record; the setup is uninvestable today because the stock has traded to within a fraction of its target and the reward-to-risk geometry has turned negative, but the quality profile warrants watching for a better entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9, free cash flow conversion at 136% of net income, and operating margins of 40% collectively describe a financially healthy real estate business that converts earnings into real cash at a rate well above what the reported income statement suggests. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion should remain above 100% of net income and the Piotroski F-score should hold at 7 or above over the next four quarters, confirming that the quality profile is durable. | →Stable |
| CounterA yield trap warning is flagged — the dividend yield is elevated but the coverage is identified as unsafe — meaning the cash-flow quality that looks strong in aggregate may be partially committed to a dividend the business cannot sustain over a full cycle. | ||
An in-line quarter was followed by three consecutive beats in the most recent four periods, with the three beats averaging a positive surprise of roughly 14%, suggesting the business has found a reliable delivery rhythm after the in-line result. Earnings | The beat streak should extend for at least two more quarters with positive surprises above 5% each, maintaining the pattern of consistent outperformance against consensus. | →Stable |
| CounterThe oldest of the four periods produced only an in-line result, and analyst coverage is noted as light, meaning the consensus estimates may not be robustly set — a wider miss could occur if conditions soften and the coverage base is too thin to reset expectations quickly. | ||
With only 0.6% headroom remaining to the price target and a reward-to-risk ratio well below the minimum threshold, the stock is priced to near-perfection in the near term — any adverse development would produce asymmetric downside relative to the remaining upside. Price targets | A price pullback that restores at least 8% upside to the take-profit target would be required to make the entry geometry attractive for new capital. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is near a 52-week high with momentum that has cleared the minimum threshold and above its 200-day moving average — a technically strong name near its target can continue to drift higher if the broad market cooperates. | ||
The dividend yield is flagged as a yield-trap situation — the yield is high but the coverage is identified as unsafe — introducing the risk that a dividend cut could reprice the stock sharply lower given that income investors are likely a significant part of the holder base. Catalyst breakdown | Free cash flow should cover the dividend at a ratio above 1.2 times for at least two consecutive quarters, or management should provide explicit guidance on dividend sustainability, before the yield-trap concern can be dismissed. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh short interest of 20% means a portion of the market is already positioned for downside, including potentially a dividend cut; if the dividend proves sustainable, short covering could amplify any upside move. | ||
A Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9, free cash flow conversion at 136% of net income, and operating margins of 40% collectively describe a financially healthy real estate business that converts earnings into real cash at a rate well above what the reported income statement suggests.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion should remain above 100% of net income and the Piotroski F-score should hold at 7 or above over the next four quarters, confirming that the quality profile is durable.
CounterA yield trap warning is flagged — the dividend yield is elevated but the coverage is identified as unsafe — meaning the cash-flow quality that looks strong in aggregate may be partially committed to a dividend the business cannot sustain over a full cycle.
An in-line quarter was followed by three consecutive beats in the most recent four periods, with the three beats averaging a positive surprise of roughly 14%, suggesting the business has found a reliable delivery rhythm after the in-line result.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend for at least two more quarters with positive surprises above 5% each, maintaining the pattern of consistent outperformance against consensus.
CounterThe oldest of the four periods produced only an in-line result, and analyst coverage is noted as light, meaning the consensus estimates may not be robustly set — a wider miss could occur if conditions soften and the coverage base is too thin to reset expectations quickly.
With only 0.6% headroom remaining to the price target and a reward-to-risk ratio well below the minimum threshold, the stock is priced to near-perfection in the near term — any adverse development would produce asymmetric downside relative to the remaining upside.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A price pullback that restores at least 8% upside to the take-profit target would be required to make the entry geometry attractive for new capital.
CounterThe stock is near a 52-week high with momentum that has cleared the minimum threshold and above its 200-day moving average — a technically strong name near its target can continue to drift higher if the broad market cooperates.
The dividend yield is flagged as a yield-trap situation — the yield is high but the coverage is identified as unsafe — introducing the risk that a dividend cut could reprice the stock sharply lower given that income investors are likely a significant part of the holder base.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should cover the dividend at a ratio above 1.2 times for at least two consecutive quarters, or management should provide explicit guidance on dividend sustainability, before the yield-trap concern can be dismissed.
CounterHigh short interest of 20% means a portion of the market is already positioned for downside, including potentially a dividend cut; if the dividend proves sustainable, short covering could amplify any upside move.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.0 |
| ROA | 2.8 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.0 |
| FCF quality | 9.5 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 40%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 136% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 60 (pass)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.8 |
| EPS growth | 8.7 |
Momentum
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.4 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.9 |
| quality rank | 7.1 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.6 |
| 52w position | 9.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.2 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 8.1 |
| beta | 8.5 |
| debt equity | 6.1 |
- ▸High short interest: 20%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.7 |
| dividend safety | 3.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 3 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $36.25 has reached target $35.80. No upside to wait for.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|SANITY:WAIT+price>=TPPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.41
Upside
-16.7%
Downside
11.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.2B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $36.25 has reached target $35.80. No upside to wait for. The 10-dimension scores remain Quality at 7.5 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.5, Insider at 7.3, and Momentum at 7.0; the weakest are Technical at 3.5, Value at 3.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.41 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Cash Flow Profile
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Consistent Earnings Delivery
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Near Term Upside Exhausted
Trip ifUpside to the take-profit target recovers above 8% from the current 0.6% level.
- P4Dividend Safety Concern
Trip ifDividend coverage ratio rises above 1.2 times free cash flow for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming dividend safety.