Value
5.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.3 |
| PEG | 9.3 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.62
GTLS · Why this verdict
Why Chart Industries (GTLS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score3.9/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Three of the last four quarters produced earnings misses, with the most recent quarter missing by 117% and the average quarterly surprise coming in at negative 35% — a pattern that signals a sustained gap between analyst expectations and actual business delivery. Earnings | Over the next 12 months, earnings surprises should turn consistently positive, with at least two consecutive beats exceeding 5%, to indicate that the delivery gap has closed. | →Stable |
| CounterThe single beat in the streak showed a positive 3.3% surprise, suggesting the business can outperform when conditions align; if the most recent outsized miss reflects a one-time charge rather than an operational trend, the streak could reverse quickly. | ||
Revenue is declining 12% year over year with no identified competitive moat, leaving the business exposed to further share loss without a structural defense to arrest the erosion. Quality breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive on a year-over-year basis for two consecutive quarters, signaling that the top-line decline has stabilized. | →Stable |
| CounterInternational markets represent 58% of revenue, meaning currency tailwinds or a regional demand recovery could restore reported growth even without domestic improvement. | ||
Price momentum has weakened below the minimum threshold for investment-grade setups, volume is in distribution with a falling on-balance volume reading, and RSI at 37 reflects a pullback that has not yet found institutional support. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume should turn from distribution to accumulation and the stock should hold above its 200-day moving average on a closing basis for four consecutive weeks. | →Stable |
| CounterThe momentum notes characterize the current RSI level as a potential buying opportunity within an uptrend, and the stock does remain above its 200-day moving average — the pressure may prove temporary. | ||
A put/call ratio of 1.64 signals that options participants are positioned defensively against further price weakness, reinforcing the negative technical and fundamental picture. Key risks | The put/call ratio should decline below 1.0 and remain there for at least one full options cycle as a sign that defensive hedging pressure has abated. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put/call ratios can be contrarian bullish signals when positioning becomes one-sidedly bearish; a rapid unwind of short hedges could drive a sharp near-term bounce even without a fundamental improvement. | ||
Three of the last four quarters produced earnings misses, with the most recent quarter missing by 117% and the average quarterly surprise coming in at negative 35% — a pattern that signals a sustained gap between analyst expectations and actual business delivery.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Over the next 12 months, earnings surprises should turn consistently positive, with at least two consecutive beats exceeding 5%, to indicate that the delivery gap has closed.
CounterThe single beat in the streak showed a positive 3.3% surprise, suggesting the business can outperform when conditions align; if the most recent outsized miss reflects a one-time charge rather than an operational trend, the streak could reverse quickly.
Revenue is declining 12% year over year with no identified competitive moat, leaving the business exposed to further share loss without a structural defense to arrest the erosion.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive on a year-over-year basis for two consecutive quarters, signaling that the top-line decline has stabilized.
CounterInternational markets represent 58% of revenue, meaning currency tailwinds or a regional demand recovery could restore reported growth even without domestic improvement.
Price momentum has weakened below the minimum threshold for investment-grade setups, volume is in distribution with a falling on-balance volume reading, and RSI at 37 reflects a pullback that has not yet found institutional support.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume should turn from distribution to accumulation and the stock should hold above its 200-day moving average on a closing basis for four consecutive weeks.
CounterThe momentum notes characterize the current RSI level as a potential buying opportunity within an uptrend, and the stock does remain above its 200-day moving average — the pressure may prove temporary.
A put/call ratio of 1.64 signals that options participants are positioned defensively against further price weakness, reinforcing the negative technical and fundamental picture.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should decline below 1.0 and remain there for at least one full options cycle as a sign that defensive hedging pressure has abated.
CounterElevated put/call ratios can be contrarian bullish signals when positioning becomes one-sidedly bearish; a rapid unwind of short hedges could drive a sharp near-term bounce even without a fundamental improvement.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Chart Industries is in a deteriorating fundamental position: revenue is declining 12% year over year, earnings have missed three of the last four quarters by an average of 35%, quality metrics sit below the minimum investable threshold, and the stock is already trading above its price target — creating a setup where downside risk materially outweighs any near-term upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 2.4 |
| Gross margin | 2.5 |
| Op margin | 2.4 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.6 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -12%
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 8.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 74)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=2)
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.4 |
| quality rank | 1.0 |
| growth rank | 0.4 |
Technical
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.2 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 10.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.7 |
| days to cover | 7.0 |
| volatility | 10.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.3 |
| beta | 4.9 |
| debt equity | 4.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.50
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:23d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.00
Upside
-14.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.53>1.3
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Momentum at 6.3 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 6.3, Value at 5.9, and Sentiment at 5.9; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Peer rank at 2.2, and Quality at 2.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Persistent Earnings Miss Streak
Trip ifEarnings surprise turns positive, exceeding 5% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Revenue Decline No Competitive Moat
Trip ifRevenue growth rises above 0% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Momentum Breakdown Volume Distribution
Trip ifRSI rises above 50 and on-balance volume turns to accumulation for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P4Elevated Options Bearish Positioning
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0 and holds there for 30 or more days.