Value
7.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.9 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 36.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.10
GNE · Why this verdict
Why Genie Energy (GNE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Genie Energy has a breakout chart and cheap-looking valuation, but price has already moved 18.2% past the analyst target, revenue is falling about 5% and 95.3% of revenue comes from one retail energy business, so there is no room to add.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Price is above the analyst target (upside of -18.2%) against 5.7% downside, so the asymmetry is negative at -3.22 and little upside remains. Estimated upside | Upside to the target reopens above 10% only after a pullback or a higher analyst target. | →Stable |
| CounterEstimates are falling, so the target may be stale, and a golden-cross breakout can keep running well past an analyst target. | ||
Genie Retail Energy contributes 95.3% of consolidated revenue, a high product concentration risk. Bear case | Revenue mix diversifies away from retail energy over 12 months, or the concentration risk remains. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA focused retail business can be well run and cash generative, with a current ratio score of 9.7 and conservative debt levels. | ||
Revenue is declining about 5%, with the June 2026 quarter at $100.4M versus $105.3M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Year-over-year quarterly revenue stabilizes and returns to growth within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterUtility-style revenue is seasonal, and the $122M next-quarter estimate implies a sequential rebound. | ||
Estimates are down 43.8% over 30 days and earnings history is split with 2 beats and 2 misses, signalling an unreliable earnings path. Catalyst breakdown | Estimate revisions turn positive as the August beat (EPS $0.44 versus $0.25) carries into the November 3 report. | ↑Improving |
| CounterEstimate cuts follow the volatile prior-year results, and the latest quarter beat by 76%, so downgrades may already be priced in. | ||
A golden cross with price above all moving averages and rising on-balance volume gives a momentum score of 6.3, above the 5.5 bar. Chart pattern detection | Momentum stays above 5.5 while price holds above its 200-day average. | →Stable |
| CounterWith price already past the analyst target and implied volatility of 172%, a breakout can reverse sharply. | ||
Price is above the analyst target (upside of -18.2%) against 5.7% downside, so the asymmetry is negative at -3.22 and little upside remains.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Upside to the target reopens above 10% only after a pullback or a higher analyst target.
CounterEstimates are falling, so the target may be stale, and a golden-cross breakout can keep running well past an analyst target.
Genie Retail Energy contributes 95.3% of consolidated revenue, a high product concentration risk.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue mix diversifies away from retail energy over 12 months, or the concentration risk remains.
CounterA focused retail business can be well run and cash generative, with a current ratio score of 9.7 and conservative debt levels.
Revenue is declining about 5%, with the June 2026 quarter at $100.4M versus $105.3M a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Year-over-year quarterly revenue stabilizes and returns to growth within 12 months.
CounterUtility-style revenue is seasonal, and the $122M next-quarter estimate implies a sequential rebound.
Estimates are down 43.8% over 30 days and earnings history is split with 2 beats and 2 misses, signalling an unreliable earnings path.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Estimate revisions turn positive as the August beat (EPS $0.44 versus $0.25) carries into the November 3 report.
CounterEstimate cuts follow the volatile prior-year results, and the latest quarter beat by 76%, so downgrades may already be priced in.
A golden cross with price above all moving averages and rising on-balance volume gives a momentum score of 6.3, above the 5.5 bar.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Momentum stays above 5.5 while price holds above its 200-day average.
CounterWith price already past the analyst target and implied volatility of 172%, a breakout can reverse sharply.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.4 |
| ROA | 2.4 |
| Gross margin | 1.1 |
| Op margin | 2.6 |
| Net margin | 2.5 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| FCF quality | 6.9 |
| Moat | 5.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.4 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -5%
Momentum
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 3.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.4 |
Insider
6.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.9 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.8 |
| quality rank | 4.0 |
| growth rank | 0.8 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.6 |
| support resistance | 3.1 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 3.2 |
| volatility | 5.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.7 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸High IV: 64%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 9 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-3.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:9d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-3.32
Upside
-18.6%
Downside
5.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 7.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-3.3=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -3.32 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.1, Value at 7.0, and Insider at 6.6; the weakest are Growth at 1.4, Momentum at 4.0, and Quality at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -3.32 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target rises above 10% from current -18.2%.
- P2Retail Energy Revenue Concentration
Trip ifGenie Retail Energy share of revenue falls below 80% from current 95.3%.
- P3Declining Revenue Trend
Trip ifYear-over-year quarterly revenue growth exceeds 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Falling Earnings Estimates
Trip if30-day estimate revisions rises above 0% from current -43.8%.
- P5Breakout Momentum Setup
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.5 from current 6.3.