Value
7.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.0 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 40.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.10
- ▸Attractively valued
GNE · Why this verdict
Why Genie Energy (GNE) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroCAUTIOUS
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Genie Retail Energy supplies 95.3% of consolidated revenue, so the whole company depends on one product line and its margin swings. Bear case | Retail share of revenue falls below 90% as other segments grow, or retail earnings stay stable. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterConcentration is only a risk if retail margins compress; the company has Conservative debt levels and a 9.3 current ratio score that cushion a downturn. | ||
Earnings are expected to decline about 63% from a peak, which is why the forward P/E is 38.5x against a trailing multiple of 14x (a 2.7x gap). Warnings | Forward P/E compresses toward the trailing level as earnings estimates stabilize. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRetail energy earnings are weather- and price-driven and have beaten estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, so the decline may be smaller than expected. | ||
The $17.72 price is 23.3% above the $13.60 analyst target, leaving limited upside and a negative reward-to-risk of -2.2. Targets | Price drifts back toward or below the $13.60 target unless earnings surprise upward. | →Stable |
| CounterOnly one analyst covers the stock (coverage score 1.0), so the target may simply be stale rather than a real valuation ceiling. | ||
Momentum scores 8.1/10 with rising on-balance volume, a golden cross and price above its 200-day average. Momentum breakdown | Momentum stays above 5.5 and price holds above the $16.48 stop level. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMomentum is running against valuation and a falling earnings outlook, so a breakout with price above target is vulnerable to a sharp reversal. | ||
Revenue is declining at about 8% YoY, with September 2026 quarterly revenue of $127.2M against $138.3M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Year-over-year revenue returns to growth within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterQuarterly revenue is seasonal (from $142.3M down to $100.4M within one year), so a single-quarter comparison may overstate the decline. | ||
Genie Retail Energy supplies 95.3% of consolidated revenue, so the whole company depends on one product line and its margin swings.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Retail share of revenue falls below 90% as other segments grow, or retail earnings stay stable.
CounterConcentration is only a risk if retail margins compress; the company has Conservative debt levels and a 9.3 current ratio score that cushion a downturn.
Earnings are expected to decline about 63% from a peak, which is why the forward P/E is 38.5x against a trailing multiple of 14x (a 2.7x gap).
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Forward P/E compresses toward the trailing level as earnings estimates stabilize.
CounterRetail energy earnings are weather- and price-driven and have beaten estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, so the decline may be smaller than expected.
The $17.72 price is 23.3% above the $13.60 analyst target, leaving limited upside and a negative reward-to-risk of -2.2.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price drifts back toward or below the $13.60 target unless earnings surprise upward.
CounterOnly one analyst covers the stock (coverage score 1.0), so the target may simply be stale rather than a real valuation ceiling.
Momentum scores 8.1/10 with rising on-balance volume, a golden cross and price above its 200-day average.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum stays above 5.5 and price holds above the $16.48 stop level.
CounterMomentum is running against valuation and a falling earnings outlook, so a breakout with price above target is vulnerable to a sharp reversal.
Revenue is declining at about 8% YoY, with September 2026 quarterly revenue of $127.2M against $138.3M a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Year-over-year revenue returns to growth within 12 months.
CounterQuarterly revenue is seasonal (from $142.3M down to $100.4M within one year), so a single-quarter comparison may overstate the decline.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.9 |
| ROA | 2.9 |
| Gross margin | 1.6 |
| Op margin | 2.2 |
| Net margin | 3.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.3 |
| FCF quality | 7.4 |
| Moat | 5.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
5.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -8%
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (1.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 7.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $178,831 (0.037% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.8 |
| quality rank | 4.5 |
| growth rank | 0.3 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.2 |
| support resistance | 3.0 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 2.9 |
| volatility | 2.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸High IV: 93%
- ▸Above max pain $15
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:121d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.70
Upside
-9.9%
Downside
14.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish
EdgeSector Rotation — Utilities sector out of favor, value=7.0
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 7.0; weakest: Technical at 4.7. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.0, Insider at 6.4, and Catalyst at 6.0; the weakest are Technical at 4.7, Quality at 4.8, and Growth at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.70 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Retail Segment Concentration
Trip ifGenie Retail Energy share of consolidated revenue falls below 85% from the current 95.3%.
- P2Earnings Peak Risk
Trip ifForward P/E falls below 20x from the current 38.5x.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifShare price falls below the $13.60 analyst target from the current $17.72.
- P4Strong Price Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.5 from the current 8.1.
- P5Declining Revenue
Trip ifYear-over-year revenue growth rises above 0% from the current -8%.