Value
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.2 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.26
- ▸Attractively valued
GCO · Why this verdict
Why Genesco (GCO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
GCO screens reasonably valued (12.5x forward P/E) with strong cash conversion, but has already run roughly 3.9% past its analyst target and sits just under the $400M investable-universe cutoff, leaving limited near-term asymmetric upside despite a solid recent earnings-beat record.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Cash conversion is very strong at 403% of net income, with a high Piotroski F-score of 8/9, despite the engine flagging no identifiable competitive moat. Quality breakdown | FCF-to-net-income conversion should stay well above 100% and the Piotroski score hold at 7+ across the next several quarters. | — |
| CounterExtremely high FCF/NI ratios can reflect working-capital timing benefits rather than a repeatable structural advantage, especially absent a moat. | ||
Trades at a modest forward multiple (12.5x forward P/E, PEG 0.23), flagged attractively valued despite having already run past its analyst price target. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should hold in a reasonable range, below roughly 15x, if earnings continue to support the current valuation. | Tripped— |
| CounterThe stock has already surpassed its analyst target by roughly 3.9%, so most of the near-term value case may already be captured. | ||
Shares trade above the 200-day moving average even as on-balance volume shows distribution, a mixed technical signal. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume should turn back to accumulation to confirm the above-trend price action is durable. | — |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume while price holds above the 200-day MA can be an early warning that the uptrend is running out of buying support. | ||
The engine's own asymmetry check failed with a negative reading, reflecting that price already sits roughly 3.9% above the analyst price target, an unfavorable risk/reward setup at current levels. Estimated upside | For a fresh entry to become attractive, either price should pull back toward the target or the analyst target itself should be raised, restoring positive asymmetry. | Tripped— |
| CounterAnalyst targets can lag fast-moving fundamentals — with 3 of the last 4 quarters beaten, the target itself may simply need to catch up to improving execution. | ||
Market capitalization of $396M sits just below the $400M minimum threshold, excluding the stock from the investable universe despite otherwise passing most engine gates. Warnings | Market cap should climb back above $400M within the next few months given the modest gap of roughly 1%. | — |
| CounterThis is purely a mandate-driven cutoff rather than a fundamental red flag, and could resolve on normal price fluctuation alone. | ||
Cash conversion is very strong at 403% of net income, with a high Piotroski F-score of 8/9, despite the engine flagging no identifiable competitive moat.
—Quality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF-to-net-income conversion should stay well above 100% and the Piotroski score hold at 7+ across the next several quarters.
CounterExtremely high FCF/NI ratios can reflect working-capital timing benefits rather than a repeatable structural advantage, especially absent a moat.
Trades at a modest forward multiple (12.5x forward P/E, PEG 0.23), flagged attractively valued despite having already run past its analyst price target.
Tripped—Valuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should hold in a reasonable range, below roughly 15x, if earnings continue to support the current valuation.
CounterThe stock has already surpassed its analyst target by roughly 3.9%, so most of the near-term value case may already be captured.
Shares trade above the 200-day moving average even as on-balance volume shows distribution, a mixed technical signal.
—Momentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume should turn back to accumulation to confirm the above-trend price action is durable.
CounterFalling on-balance volume while price holds above the 200-day MA can be an early warning that the uptrend is running out of buying support.
The engine's own asymmetry check failed with a negative reading, reflecting that price already sits roughly 3.9% above the analyst price target, an unfavorable risk/reward setup at current levels.
Tripped—Estimated upside
- Expectation
- For a fresh entry to become attractive, either price should pull back toward the target or the analyst target itself should be raised, restoring positive asymmetry.
CounterAnalyst targets can lag fast-moving fundamentals — with 3 of the last 4 quarters beaten, the target itself may simply need to catch up to improving execution.
Market capitalization of $396M sits just below the $400M minimum threshold, excluding the stock from the investable universe despite otherwise passing most engine gates.
—Warnings
- Expectation
- Market cap should climb back above $400M within the next few months given the modest gap of roughly 1%.
CounterThis is purely a mandate-driven cutoff rather than a fundamental red flag, and could resolve on normal price fluctuation alone.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.2 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 5.3 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.4 |
| Current ratio | 6.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 403% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| holder change | 9.4 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $99,980 (0.023% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.3 |
| quality rank | 1.1 |
| growth rank | 1.7 |
Technical
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.6 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.4 |
| days to cover | 5.9 |
| volatility | 2.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 3.9 |
| debt equity | 4.9 |
- ▸High IV: 63%
- ▸Above max pain $30
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:22d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.88
Upside
-13.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 22d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.83>1.3, MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.88 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.1, Insider at 7.0, and Momentum at 6.8; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.4, Technical at 3.7, and Quality at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.88 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Modest Forward ValuationTripped
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 18x, from the current 12.5x, without a corresponding increase in forward earnings estimates, indicating valuation has become stretched.
- P2Strong Cash Conversion
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income conversion falls below 150% for 2 consecutive quarters, showing the current cash-conversion strength was not structural.
- P3Mixed Obv Signal Above Trend
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average for more than 10 consecutive trading days, confirming the on-balance-volume distribution signal was an early warning.
- P4Target Already ReachedTripped
Trip ifThe analyst price target is raised such that upside turns positive above 5%, or price pulls back more than 10%, either of which would restore a favorable asymmetric setup.
- P5Below Investable Universe Cutoff
Trip ifMarket capitalization falls below $350M, further from the current $396M, rather than recovering above the $400M threshold within 2 quarters.