Value
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.9 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.09
- ▸Attractively valued
GCMG · Why this verdict
Why GCM Grosvenor (GCMG) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
GCM Grosvenor's shares screen attractively valued against analyst targets with strong cash generation and a solid beat streak, but a market cap below the $1B investable floor, heavy private-markets concentration, and unfavorable price asymmetry collectively constrain the practical case for a new position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward P/E of 10.8x and a PEG of 0.10, shares are priced attractively relative to earnings power, and analyst consensus implies approximately 25% additional upside from current levels — a notable gap between market price and professional estimates. Valuation breakdown | If the discount closes, the stock should advance toward consensus targets over 12 months, driven by reaffirmation of estimates or upward revisions following continued execution. | →Stable |
| CounterThe market cap of $0.69B sits below the $1B minimum for most institutional buyers, structurally limiting the demand base that could close this valuation gap and suggesting the discount may persist for technical rather than fundamental reasons. | ||
Free cash flow runs at more than twice reported net income (229%), the financial health score is 7 out of 9, and over the three quarters through early 2026 the company delivered three consecutive beats — together signaling a business that consistently converts earnings power into actual cash. Quality breakdown | FCF-to-net-income ratio stays above 150% for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming the conversion premium is structural rather than driven by one-time items. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter came in at estimates with no positive surprise, ending the three-quarter beat streak — raising the question of whether operating momentum is beginning to slow. | ||
With 71% of assets concentrated in private markets and customized separate accounts representing the same 71% share, the business has limited diversification, amplifying its exposure to any contraction in alternatives demand. Bear case | This risk persists until the company discloses a reduction in private-markets concentration below 60% of assets in a subsequent filing. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMomentum has recovered and volume is accumulating, suggesting the market is already pricing in this concentration risk without imposing a further structural discount on the shares. | ||
Upside of 6.1% to the take-profit target versus downside of 14.7% produces a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.42-to-1 — well below the level where the setup would be considered compelling for new capital, even against a reasonable fundamental backdrop. Price targets | The setup becomes attractive only when the reward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5-to-1 through either a price pullback or a meaningful upward revision to analyst price targets. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterA positive momentum trend with volume accumulation could support a gradual upward drift that slowly improves the asymmetry without requiring a correction, particularly if upcoming earnings continue to meet or exceed estimates. | ||
At a forward P/E of 10.8x and a PEG of 0.10, shares are priced attractively relative to earnings power, and analyst consensus implies approximately 25% additional upside from current levels — a notable gap between market price and professional estimates.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- If the discount closes, the stock should advance toward consensus targets over 12 months, driven by reaffirmation of estimates or upward revisions following continued execution.
CounterThe market cap of $0.69B sits below the $1B minimum for most institutional buyers, structurally limiting the demand base that could close this valuation gap and suggesting the discount may persist for technical rather than fundamental reasons.
Free cash flow runs at more than twice reported net income (229%), the financial health score is 7 out of 9, and over the three quarters through early 2026 the company delivered three consecutive beats — together signaling a business that consistently converts earnings power into actual cash.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF-to-net-income ratio stays above 150% for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming the conversion premium is structural rather than driven by one-time items.
CounterThe most recent quarter came in at estimates with no positive surprise, ending the three-quarter beat streak — raising the question of whether operating momentum is beginning to slow.
With 71% of assets concentrated in private markets and customized separate accounts representing the same 71% share, the business has limited diversification, amplifying its exposure to any contraction in alternatives demand.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- This risk persists until the company discloses a reduction in private-markets concentration below 60% of assets in a subsequent filing.
CounterMomentum has recovered and volume is accumulating, suggesting the market is already pricing in this concentration risk without imposing a further structural discount on the shares.
Upside of 6.1% to the take-profit target versus downside of 14.7% produces a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.42-to-1 — well below the level where the setup would be considered compelling for new capital, even against a reasonable fundamental backdrop.
Tripped→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- The setup becomes attractive only when the reward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5-to-1 through either a price pullback or a meaningful upward revision to analyst price targets.
CounterA positive momentum trend with volume accumulation could support a gradual upward drift that slowly improves the asymmetry without requiring a correction, particularly if upcoming earnings continue to meet or exceed estimates.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 9.8 |
| Gross margin | 5.1 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 3.9 |
| Current ratio | 8.0 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 300%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 250% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
7.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.4 |
| OBV | 4.6 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.9 |
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.7 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.6 |
| quality rank | 5.7 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.5 |
| support resistance | 8.1 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 9.1 |
| volatility | 6.1 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.0 |
| debt equity | 1.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 5.00
- ▸High IV: 105%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.5 |
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 3.6%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.09, quality 8.1/10, growth 7.7/10).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:62d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.26
Upside
-1.3%
Downside
5.1%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 8.1 and growth 7.7 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of -0.26 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.1, Growth at 7.7, and Value at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 4.3, Peer rank at 4.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.26 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Valuation Analyst Target Gap
Trip ifUpside to analyst consensus price target compresses below 5% as the stock closes the valuation gap (consensus currently implies approximately 25% upside).
- P2Cash Conversion Earnings Quality
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income ratio falls below 100% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Private Markets Concentration
Trip ifPrivate markets concentration falls below 60% of assets under management in a subsequent disclosed filing (currently 71%).
- P4Unfavorable Price AsymmetryTripped
Trip ifReward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5-to-1 as the price setup improves (currently 0.42-to-1).