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GCM Grosvenor Inc. (GCMG) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.51, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Private Markets (71.0%); Market cap $0.65B below $1B minimum.

GCM Grosvenor is a global alternative asset manager with $90.9B AUM across private equity, infrastructure, real estate, absolute return strategies, and alternative credit. Total management fees were $426M and total operating revenues were $558M in 2025; 71% of AUM is in private... Read more

$10.51+14.3% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#26 of 112 Asset Management
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield17.74%
IncomeYield4.46%(5y avg 4.13%)Payout92.00%at-risk
Stop $10.03Target $12.01(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$14.13+34.4%4 analysts
$12.01our TP
$10.51price
$14.13mean
$18

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.51, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Private Markets (71.0%); Market cap $0.65B below $1B minimum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Market cap $0.65B below $1B minimum. Not in investable universe. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — GCM Grosvenor Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Private Markets (71.0%)
Market cap $0.65B below $1B minimum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.5
P/E (Fwd)10.6
Mkt Cap$650M
EV/EBITDA7.0
Profit Mgn9.1%
ROE986.8%
Rev Growth-1.2%
Beta0.88
Dividend4.46%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

IV83%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductPrivate Markets71%
    10-K Item 1: 'Private Markets represents $64.1 billion of AUM, or 71% of total AUM.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.34Resistance $11.65

Price Targets

$10
$12
A.Upside+14.3%
A.R:R1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Market cap $0.65B below $1B minimum
! Momentum score 4.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GCMG stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.51, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Private Markets (71.0%); Market cap $0.65B below $1B minimum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Market cap $0.65B below $1B minimum. Not in investable universe. Target $12.01 (+14.3%), stop $10.03 (−4.8%), A.R:R 1.7:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GCMG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $12.01 (+14.3% upside). Target $12.01 (+14.3%), stop $10.03 (−4.8%), A.R:R 1.7:1. Stop-loss: $10.03.

What are the risks of investing in GCMG?

Concentration risk — Product: Private Markets (71.0%); Market cap $0.65B below $1B minimum.

Is GCMG overvalued or undervalued?

GCM Grosvenor Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.5 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about GCMG?

12 analysts cover GCMG with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $14.

What does GCM Grosvenor Inc. do?GCM Grosvenor is a global alternative asset manager with $90.9B AUM across private equity, infrastructure, real estate,...

GCM Grosvenor is a global alternative asset manager with $90.9B AUM across private equity, infrastructure, real estate, absolute return strategies, and alternative credit. Total management fees were $426M and total operating revenues were $558M in 2025; 71% of AUM is in private markets strategies.

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