Value
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.9 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.5 |
| PEG | 7.3 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.95
GBX · Why this verdict
Why Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (The (GBX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Greenbrier Companies carries a revenue base contracting 23% and quality below the minimum acceptable threshold, with the stock trading at its resistance ceiling — an upcoming earnings report is the only near-term catalyst, but it is insufficient to overcome the fundamental and valuation setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue has declined 23% and the company carries no identifiable competitive advantage, placing business quality below the minimum acceptable floor — a combination that suggests the business is losing ground rather than experiencing a temporary pause. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth must turn positive and sustain above 5% year over year for at least 2 consecutive quarters to demonstrate the contraction is reversing. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThree of the four most recent quarters delivered positive earnings surprises with an average beat of approximately 24%, suggesting management is executing effectively within the existing revenue envelope. | ||
Over the three quarters through early 2026, the company delivered three consecutive positive earnings surprises before a significant miss of approximately 43% below estimates most recently — and with the next report approximately 15 days away, that upcoming release is the nearest opportunity to either restore or further erode the recent track record. Catalyst breakdown | A beat at the upcoming earnings report would extend the three-of-four beat pattern; the thesis holds if EPS beats in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe most recent quarter's significant miss broke the beat streak just one period ago; a repeat shortfall would confirm the pattern has structurally shifted and the catalyst window has closed. | ||
The stock trades just above its technical resistance target with essentially no upside remaining and a reward-to-risk ratio of -0.08-to-1, leaving buyers at current prices of $48.44 exposed almost entirely to downside. Price targets | The setup becomes favorable only when the reward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5-to-1, which requires either a meaningful price pullback or a significant upward revision to resistance targets. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterVolume has been accumulating with a rising on-balance volume trend and the stock holds above its 200-day moving average, suggesting institutional buying interest that could sustain prices despite the unfavorable geometry. | ||
Short interest at 11% of the float signals a meaningful cohort of investors positioning for further price weakness, reflecting fundamental concerns including the sharp revenue contraction and below-threshold quality. Key risks | If the fundamental outlook improves, short interest should compress below 6% as short sellers close positions — a sign the bear case is being abandoned. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh short interest creates potential for a sharp upside move if the upcoming earnings release surprises significantly above estimates, forcing short covering and accelerating any rebound. | ||
Revenue has declined 23% and the company carries no identifiable competitive advantage, placing business quality below the minimum acceptable floor — a combination that suggests the business is losing ground rather than experiencing a temporary pause.
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth must turn positive and sustain above 5% year over year for at least 2 consecutive quarters to demonstrate the contraction is reversing.
CounterThree of the four most recent quarters delivered positive earnings surprises with an average beat of approximately 24%, suggesting management is executing effectively within the existing revenue envelope.
Over the three quarters through early 2026, the company delivered three consecutive positive earnings surprises before a significant miss of approximately 43% below estimates most recently — and with the next report approximately 15 days away, that upcoming release is the nearest opportunity to either restore or further erode the recent track record.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- A beat at the upcoming earnings report would extend the three-of-four beat pattern; the thesis holds if EPS beats in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe most recent quarter's significant miss broke the beat streak just one period ago; a repeat shortfall would confirm the pattern has structurally shifted and the catalyst window has closed.
The stock trades just above its technical resistance target with essentially no upside remaining and a reward-to-risk ratio of -0.08-to-1, leaving buyers at current prices of $48.44 exposed almost entirely to downside.
Tripped↓DeterioratingPrice targets
- Expectation
- The setup becomes favorable only when the reward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5-to-1, which requires either a meaningful price pullback or a significant upward revision to resistance targets.
CounterVolume has been accumulating with a rising on-balance volume trend and the stock holds above its 200-day moving average, suggesting institutional buying interest that could sustain prices despite the unfavorable geometry.
Short interest at 11% of the float signals a meaningful cohort of investors positioning for further price weakness, reflecting fundamental concerns including the sharp revenue contraction and below-threshold quality.
↑ImprovingKey risks
- Expectation
- If the fundamental outlook improves, short interest should compress below 6% as short sellers close positions — a sign the bear case is being abandoned.
CounterHigh short interest creates potential for a sharp upside move if the upcoming earnings release surprises significantly above estimates, forcing short covering and accelerating any rebound.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.1 |
| ROA | 1.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.8 |
| Net margin | 2.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.1 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -154% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
2.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 4.8 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -32%
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.3 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.6 |
| support resistance | 0.3 |
| 52w position | 7.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.9 |
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 4.6 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 7.2 |
| beta | 5.3 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.40
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.9 |
| dividend safety | 4.3 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:95d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.89
Upside
-26.1%
Downside
13.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 65, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.42>1.3, MCap $1.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -1.9=NEGATIVE outcome against Insider at 7.3 and asymmetric R:R of -1.89.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Value at 6.8, and Momentum at 6.8; the weakest are Growth at 2.4, Quality at 2.7, and Technical at 2.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.89 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue Quality Deterioration
Trip ifRevenue growth turns positive and exceeds 5% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Beat History Catalyst
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters following the upcoming earnings report.
- P3Negative Price GeometryTripped
Trip ifReward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5-to-1 following a price pullback of more than 7% from the current level of $48.44.
- P4High Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest falls below 6% of the float (currently 11%) over a 90-day measurement period.