Value
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 9.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.56
- ▸Attractively valued
G · Why this verdict
Why Genpact (G) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
An IT services business with a perfect four-quarter beat streak, a forward P/E of 6.9 times earnings, and a 19% margin of safety relative to analyst consensus offers compelling value and a favorable risk/reward of 2.7-to-1 — but two failed technical gates and a confirmed downtrend with falling volume mean the setup cannot be acted on until the chart structure reverses.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 6.9 times and a PEG ratio of 0.39, with analyst consensus implying a 37% margin of safety to the price target — a valuation that screens attractively cheap relative to both the quality of the underlying business and its peers. Valuation breakdown | Within 12 months, the stock closes within 10% of the analyst consensus target as the valuation gap narrows. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterCheap valuations can persist indefinitely when no clear catalyst is present; with two failed technical gates and falling on-balance volume, the discount may widen further before it compresses, and consensus EPS estimate cuts would erode the apparent cheapness without any price movement. | ||
The business has exceeded consensus earnings estimates in each of the last four reported quarters, with an average positive surprise of 5.3%, demonstrating consistent and predictable execution that reduces near-term earnings risk. Earnings | A fifth consecutive beat in the next reported quarter, with a positive EPS surprise above 3%, would confirm that execution discipline is a durable feature rather than a run of favorable comparisons. | →Stable |
| CounterEach beat has been incremental — ranging from roughly 3% to 8% above estimate — suggesting gradual rather than transformative outperformance, which may be insufficient to catalyze a meaningful re-rating from the current depressed multiple. | ||
Free cash flow converts at 125% of net income and the Piotroski financial health score is a perfect 9 out of 9 — the highest possible reading — indicating that reported earnings are fully backed by genuine cash and that the balance sheet is in excellent condition. Quality breakdown | Free-cash-flow conversion remains above 100% of net income for the next 2 annual reporting periods, sustaining the quality signal. | →Stable |
| CounterShort interest at 12% against a business with a perfect Piotroski score and a consistent beat streak suggests short sellers may be positioned on concerns not captured in backward-looking balance-sheet metrics, such as sector-level budget pressure or AI-driven demand shifts that have yet to appear in reported results. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend — below a 200-day moving average declining at 4.2% per month, with volume distributing rather than accumulating — conditions that blocked two technical gates and warrant waiting for chart confirmation before acting on the favorable fundamental setup. Momentum breakdown | The technical barrier lifts when the stock reclaims and holds above its 200-day moving average for 3 consecutive weeks with on-balance volume turning positive. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe MACD is improving, RSI has stabilized near 50, and the options market shows a very low put/call ratio of 0.18 — suggesting near-term bearish conviction is fading and that a technical recovery may be closer than the death-cross signal alone implies. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 6.9 times and a PEG ratio of 0.39, with analyst consensus implying a 37% margin of safety to the price target — a valuation that screens attractively cheap relative to both the quality of the underlying business and its peers.
Tripped→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Within 12 months, the stock closes within 10% of the analyst consensus target as the valuation gap narrows.
CounterCheap valuations can persist indefinitely when no clear catalyst is present; with two failed technical gates and falling on-balance volume, the discount may widen further before it compresses, and consensus EPS estimate cuts would erode the apparent cheapness without any price movement.
The business has exceeded consensus earnings estimates in each of the last four reported quarters, with an average positive surprise of 5.3%, demonstrating consistent and predictable execution that reduces near-term earnings risk.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- A fifth consecutive beat in the next reported quarter, with a positive EPS surprise above 3%, would confirm that execution discipline is a durable feature rather than a run of favorable comparisons.
CounterEach beat has been incremental — ranging from roughly 3% to 8% above estimate — suggesting gradual rather than transformative outperformance, which may be insufficient to catalyze a meaningful re-rating from the current depressed multiple.
Free cash flow converts at 125% of net income and the Piotroski financial health score is a perfect 9 out of 9 — the highest possible reading — indicating that reported earnings are fully backed by genuine cash and that the balance sheet is in excellent condition.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free-cash-flow conversion remains above 100% of net income for the next 2 annual reporting periods, sustaining the quality signal.
CounterShort interest at 12% against a business with a perfect Piotroski score and a consistent beat streak suggests short sellers may be positioned on concerns not captured in backward-looking balance-sheet metrics, such as sector-level budget pressure or AI-driven demand shifts that have yet to appear in reported results.
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend — below a 200-day moving average declining at 4.2% per month, with volume distributing rather than accumulating — conditions that blocked two technical gates and warrant waiting for chart confirmation before acting on the favorable fundamental setup.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The technical barrier lifts when the stock reclaims and holds above its 200-day moving average for 3 consecutive weeks with on-balance volume turning positive.
CounterThe MACD is improving, RSI has stabilized near 50, and the options market shows a very low put/call ratio of 0.18 — suggesting near-term bearish conviction is fading and that a technical recovery may be closer than the death-cross signal alone implies.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.5 |
| ROA | 6.1 |
| Gross margin | 3.3 |
| Op margin | 6.0 |
| Net margin | 5.5 |
| Current ratio | 7.0 |
| FCF quality | 6.1 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
4.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.3 |
| EPS growth | 4.9 |
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.0 |
| MACD | 6.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 80)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 80 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 2.1 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $1,188,428 (0.019% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions reducing
Peer rank
6.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.1 |
| quality rank | 6.7 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.1 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 5.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.7 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 5.3 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.2 |
| beta | 9.5 |
| debt equity | 7.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.21
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.2 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 2.0% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:63d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.27
Upside
-3.6%
Downside
13.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 80
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.27 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Catalyst at 6.7, and Quality at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 3.1, Insider at 3.4, and Momentum at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.27 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Margin Of SafetyTripped
Trip ifConsensus forward EPS estimates are cut by more than 35% cumulatively over 4 quarters, raising the implied forward P/E above 10x and eliminating the apparent valuation discount.
- P2Perfect Four Quarter Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS falls below consensus in any 1 of the next 2 reported quarters, breaking the positive streak.
- P3Strong Cash Generation Balance Sheet
Trip ifFree-cash-flow to net-income ratio falls below 80% for 2 consecutive reported annual periods.
- P4Technical Downtrend Two Gate Block
Trip ifStock reclaims and holds above its 200-day moving average for 3 consecutive weeks with on-balance volume turning positive.