Skip to main content
FWRDForward Air CorporationSell4.2·$13.45-4.54%
Open full analysis

Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.45: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Forward Air Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an asset-light freight and logistics company in the United States, Mexico, Europe, Asia, and Canada. The company operates through three segments: Expedited Freight, Omni Logistics, and Intermodal. Its Expedited... Read more

$13.45+15.8% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#13 of 13 Integrated Freight & Logistics
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield13.14%
Stop $12.51Target $15.58(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$18.33+36.3%3 analysts
$15.58our TP
$13.45price
$18.33mean
$20

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.45: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 10, 202637d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.5), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-53.1
Mkt Cap$425M
EV/EBITDA10.1
Profit Mgn-3.7%
ROE-69.1%
Rev Growth-5.1%
Beta1.36
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.07bullish
IV99%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -5.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.2
Declining revenue: -5%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Unprofitable operations — net margin -3.7%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
0.1
Roa
1.4
Operating Margin
1.6
Moat
2.5
Piotroski F
3.3
Current Ratio
4.7
No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Support Resistance
2.9
Bollinger
4.2
Gap
5.0

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.2
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
4.5
Macd
9.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -11.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
0.8
Value Rank
9.2
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5A.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 37d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.67Resistance $15.00

Price Targets

$13
$16
A.Upside+15.8%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.5), Negative free cash flow
! momentum at 3.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (37d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FWRD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.45: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Prior stop was $12.51. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FWRD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.58 (+15.8% upside). Prior stop was $12.51. Stop-loss: $12.51.

What are the risks of investing in FWRD?

Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.5), Negative free cash flow.

Is FWRD overvalued or undervalued?

Forward Air Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -53.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FWRD?

12 analysts cover FWRD with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Forward Air Corporation do?Forward Air Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an asset-light freight and logistics company in...

Forward Air Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an asset-light freight and logistics company in the United States, Mexico, Europe, Asia, and Canada. The company operates through three segments: Expedited Freight, Omni Logistics, and Intermodal. Its Expedited Freight segment provides expedited regional, inter-regional, and national less-than-truckload services; local pick-up and delivery services; and other services, which include shipment consolidation and deconsolidation, warehousing, customs brokerage, and other handling. This segment offers expedited truckload brokerage, dedicated fleet, and high security and temperature-controlled logistics services. The Omni Logistics segment offers full suite of global logistics services, such as air and ocean freight consolidation and forwarding, customs brokerage, warehousing and distribution, value-added services, time-definite transportation services, and other supply chain solutions. Its Intermodal segment provides intermodal container drayage services; and contract and container freight station warehouse and handling services. The company serves freight forwarders, third-party logistics companies, integrated air cargo carriers and passenger, passenger and cargo airlines, steamship lines, and retailers. Forward Air Corporation was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Related stocks: RLGT (Radiant Logistics, Inc.) · PBI (Pitney Bowes Inc.) · CYRX (CryoPort, Inc.) · HUBG (Hub Group, Inc.)
Home Stocks FWRD

Latest news

No recent news