Value
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.32
- ▸Attractively valued
FSLR · Why this verdict
Why First Solar (FSLR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A 24% year-over-year revenue growth rate and a near-perfect financial health score underpin the long-term quality case, but momentum below its minimum threshold, a 10% short float, and a leverage penalty on a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.9 create near-term headwinds that favor patience over adding exposure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue has grown 24% year over year, and three of the last four quarters delivered positive earnings surprises — most recently an 8.95% beat — indicating a business executing consistently above consensus expectations. Growth | Revenue growth sustains above 15% year over year and quarterly earnings surprises remain positive for at least three of the next four reported periods. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe lone miss in the last four quarters (a 6.35% shortfall) shows guidance discipline can slip; if growth decelerates while leverage remains elevated, the valuation multiple could compress sharply. | ||
Operating and net margins stand at 31%, and the company's financial health scores 8 out of 9 on the Piotroski scale, placing it among the best-quality businesses in its peer set. Quality | Operating margins remain above 25% and the Piotroski financial health score stays at 7 or above over the next four reported quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFree cash flow converts at only 69% of net income — flagged as a quality concern — meaning reported earnings overstate cash generation and the true capital-generation capacity is meaningfully weaker than headline margins imply. | ||
Price momentum has failed to clear the minimum required threshold, and 10% of the float is held short, creating a technical and positioning overhang that limits near-term appreciation even as the underlying business performs. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum recovers above the 4.5 threshold and short interest declines below 6% of the float within the next two to three quarters as continued earnings beats reduce short pressure. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterSustained earnings beats could trigger short-covering that rapidly reverses the momentum deficit, making the current setup a contrarian opportunity rather than a structural warning. | ||
A debt-to-equity ratio of 5.9 carries a meaningful leverage penalty that offsets otherwise strong fundamentals and introduces financial risk if earnings come in below expectations. Bear case | Debt-to-equity ratio declines below 4.0 over the next four quarters as strong cash generation is applied to balance sheet reduction. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterIf 24% revenue growth continues and free cash flow conversion improves, leverage could normalize naturally — removing the penalty and re-rating the stock toward a higher multiple without requiring external capital. | ||
Revenue has grown 24% year over year, and three of the last four quarters delivered positive earnings surprises — most recently an 8.95% beat — indicating a business executing consistently above consensus expectations.
↓DeterioratingGrowth
- Expectation
- Revenue growth sustains above 15% year over year and quarterly earnings surprises remain positive for at least three of the next four reported periods.
CounterThe lone miss in the last four quarters (a 6.35% shortfall) shows guidance discipline can slip; if growth decelerates while leverage remains elevated, the valuation multiple could compress sharply.
Operating and net margins stand at 31%, and the company's financial health scores 8 out of 9 on the Piotroski scale, placing it among the best-quality businesses in its peer set.
↓DeterioratingQuality
- Expectation
- Operating margins remain above 25% and the Piotroski financial health score stays at 7 or above over the next four reported quarters.
CounterFree cash flow converts at only 69% of net income — flagged as a quality concern — meaning reported earnings overstate cash generation and the true capital-generation capacity is meaningfully weaker than headline margins imply.
Price momentum has failed to clear the minimum required threshold, and 10% of the float is held short, creating a technical and positioning overhang that limits near-term appreciation even as the underlying business performs.
↓DeterioratingEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum recovers above the 4.5 threshold and short interest declines below 6% of the float within the next two to three quarters as continued earnings beats reduce short pressure.
CounterSustained earnings beats could trigger short-covering that rapidly reverses the momentum deficit, making the current setup a contrarian opportunity rather than a structural warning.
A debt-to-equity ratio of 5.9 carries a meaningful leverage penalty that offsets otherwise strong fundamentals and introduces financial risk if earnings come in below expectations.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity ratio declines below 4.0 over the next four quarters as strong cash generation is applied to balance sheet reduction.
CounterIf 24% revenue growth continues and free cash flow conversion improves, leverage could normalize naturally — removing the penalty and re-rating the stock toward a higher multiple without requiring external capital.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.2 |
| ROA | 5.7 |
| Gross margin | 5.9 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.7 |
| FCF quality | 3.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 37%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 37% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 7.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -23%
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 7.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=7)
- ▸Analyst upside: 48%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $1,250,221 (0.006% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.0 |
| quality rank | 8.1 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.3 |
| support resistance | 1.2 |
| 52w position | 1.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.0 |
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 2.7 |
| put call | 4.2 |
| implied vol | 1.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.3 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸High IV: 71%
- ▸Above max pain $110
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:111d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.1>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
3.31
Upside
+35.7%
Downside
10.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -42% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.9; weakest: Technical at 2.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.9, Sentiment at 8.3, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 2.0, Growth at 3.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.3. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.31 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Earnings Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P2High Quality Margins Financial Health
Trip ifOperating margin compresses below 20% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Momentum Short Interest Overhang
Trip ifShort interest falls below 5% of the float for 2 consecutive months.
- P4Leverage Drag On Fundamentals
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio falls below 3.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.