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FROFrontline PlcSell6.5·$36.74+5.88%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Frontline carries a high-quality franchise with peer-leading margins and a wide economic moat, but has traded past its near-term resistance target, four consecutive earnings misses have cast doubt on near-term delivery, and low free cash conversion raises questions about dividend sustainability — together these factors favor patience over new exposure.

Thesis pillars

  • Yield Sustainability ConcernStable
  • High Quality Wide MoatStable
  • Exceptional Revenue GrowthStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Frontline Plc (FRO) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temporary headwind edge

SellModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $36.74 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (4).

Frontline plc, a shipping company, engages in the ownership and operation of oil and product tankers worldwide. The company owns and operates oil and product tankers, such as very large crude carriers (VLCCs), Suezmax tankers, and LR2/Aframax tankers. As of December 31, 2025, it... Read more

$36.74+2.3% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#8 of 46 Oil & Gas Midstream
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.57%
IncomeYield8.52%(5y avg 11.48%)Payout43.35%sustainable
Stop $34.18Target $37.61(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$44.25+20.4%4 analysts
$37.61our TP
$36.74price
$44.25mean
$55

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $36.74 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (4). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 31, 202658d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (4)
Earnings estimates trending DOWN

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.1
P/E (Fwd)10.4
Mkt Cap$8.2B
EV/EBITDA8.8
Profit Mgn40.2%
ROE35.0%
Rev Growth66.9%
Beta0.03
Dividend8.52%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.08bullish
IV65%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
1.5
Dividend Safety
4.8
Earnings Timing
5.0
Estimates down -5.3% (30d)Earnings concerns: 0B/4MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.7
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 58d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $32.38Resistance $43.10

Price Targets

$34
$38
A.Upside+2.4%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.3% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-2: STRONG_BUY_WAIT → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 2.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-31 (58d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FRO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $36.74 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (4). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $34.18. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FRO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $37.61 (+2.3% upside). Prior stop was $34.18. Stop-loss: $34.18.

What are the risks of investing in FRO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (4); Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Is FRO overvalued or undervalued?

Frontline Plc trades at a P/E of 9.1 (forward 10.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FRO?

7 analysts cover FRO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $44.

What does Frontline Plc do?Frontline plc, a shipping company, engages in the ownership and operation of oil and product tankers worldwide. The...

Frontline plc, a shipping company, engages in the ownership and operation of oil and product tankers worldwide. The company owns and operates oil and product tankers, such as very large crude carriers (VLCCs), Suezmax tankers, and LR2/Aframax tankers. As of December 31, 2025, it operated a fleet of 80 vessels, including 41 VLCCs, 21 Suezmax tankers, and 18 LR2/Aframax tankers. The company is also involved in the charter, purchase, and sale of vessels. Frontline plc was founded in 1985 and is based in Limassol, Cyprus.

Related stocks: TEN (Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd) · LPG (Dorian LPG Ltd.) · STNG (Scorpio Tankers Inc.) · DHT (DHT Holdings, Inc.) · INSW (International Seaways, Inc.)
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