Value
8.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.8 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.18
- ▸Attractively valued
FRBT · Why this verdict
Why Forbright (FRBT) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Forbright is an attractively valued small-cap bank (forward P/E 7.9x) with strong reported margins and positive news sentiment, but a recent earnings miss, weak Piotroski score and only 10% upside to the analyst target limit the case for adding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock is attractively valued at a 7.9x forward P/E and a PEG of 0.18. Valuation breakdown | Valuation stays below about 10x forward earnings as earnings are delivered over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterCheap multiples on a small bank can reflect real credit or earnings risk, and the latest quarter missed estimates badly. | ||
Price is 10.0% below the analyst target against 8.7% downside to the stop, an asymmetry of 1.15 versus the 1.5 required, so adding is not compelling. Engine gate (failed) | Asymmetry improves above 1.5 only on a pullback toward the 17.27 entry target. | →Stable |
| CounterA range-bound chart with news-driven upgrades could lift the analyst target, and the small cap sits below institutional reach, which may leave upside unpriced. | ||
Margins are strong at 24%, yet the Piotroski F-Score is only 2 of 9, so reported profitability is not matched by broad financial-health improvement. Quality breakdown | Margins hold near 24% and the Piotroski score improves above 2 as results normalize. | →Stable |
| CounterPiotroski criteria fit banks poorly, and revenue data from two sources diverge by 34%, so the low score may be partly a data artifact. | ||
Valuation upside depends on earnings recovering from the latest quarter, where EPS of $0.09 missed the $0.21 estimate by 56%. Earnings | EPS beats or meets estimates in the October 29 report and the following quarter. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe miss may signal structural margin pressure, and the revenue source mismatch (XBRL $129.1M vs yfinance $84.8M) makes the trend hard to trust. | ||
News sentiment is positive at +0.70 and analysts see 26% upside, supporting a constructive view. Sentiment breakdown | Analyst upside stays above 15% as coverage broadens beyond the current light coverage. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterSentiment rests on a single article and light analyst coverage, so the signal is thin and dampened. | ||
The stock is attractively valued at a 7.9x forward P/E and a PEG of 0.18.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Valuation stays below about 10x forward earnings as earnings are delivered over 12 months.
CounterCheap multiples on a small bank can reflect real credit or earnings risk, and the latest quarter missed estimates badly.
Price is 10.0% below the analyst target against 8.7% downside to the stop, an asymmetry of 1.15 versus the 1.5 required, so adding is not compelling.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Asymmetry improves above 1.5 only on a pullback toward the 17.27 entry target.
CounterA range-bound chart with news-driven upgrades could lift the analyst target, and the small cap sits below institutional reach, which may leave upside unpriced.
Margins are strong at 24%, yet the Piotroski F-Score is only 2 of 9, so reported profitability is not matched by broad financial-health improvement.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins hold near 24% and the Piotroski score improves above 2 as results normalize.
CounterPiotroski criteria fit banks poorly, and revenue data from two sources diverge by 34%, so the low score may be partly a data artifact.
Valuation upside depends on earnings recovering from the latest quarter, where EPS of $0.09 missed the $0.21 estimate by 56%.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats or meets estimates in the October 29 report and the following quarter.
CounterThe miss may signal structural margin pressure, and the revenue source mismatch (XBRL $129.1M vs yfinance $84.8M) makes the trend hard to trust.
News sentiment is positive at +0.70 and analysts see 26% upside, supporting a constructive view.
↓DeterioratingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst upside stays above 15% as coverage broadens beyond the current light coverage.
CounterSentiment rests on a single article and light analyst coverage, so the signal is thin and dampened.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 7.3 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸Strong margins: 24%
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
Growth
3.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.2 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 8.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 34%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 1.0 |
| growth rank | 6.5 |
Technical
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.3 |
| support resistance | 8.0 |
| 52w position | 5.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 9.4 |
| volatility | 1.1 |
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 10 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:1.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.2<4.5
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:10d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
1.82
Upside
+16.6%
Downside
9.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:1.8>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 8.7; weakest: Momentum at 2.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.7, Insider at 7.3, and Technical at 7.2; the weakest are Momentum at 2.2, Catalyst at 2.5, and Growth at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.82 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Bank Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x from current 7.9x.
- P2Limited Reward To Risk Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.5 from current 1.15.
- P3Strong Margins Weak Piotroski
Trip ifReported margin falls below 15% from current 24%.
- P4Earnings Recovery After Miss
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Positive News Sentiment Upside
Trip ifAnalyst upside falls below 10% from current 26%.