Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.7x
- ▸Attractively valued
FOXA · Why this verdict
Why Fox (FOXA) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Fox Corporation combines a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak (average surprise 40%) with a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and a forward P/E of 11.4x, but weak cash conversion, 28% short interest and only 7.6% analyst upside temper the case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
EPS beat estimates in all four recent quarters with an average surprise of 40.4%, including $1.79 versus $1.38 in August. Earnings | EPS continues to beat consensus over the next four reports. | ↑Improving |
| CounterEstimates are being set far too low, which makes surprises large but may not reflect underlying growth; earnings are also seasonally uneven across news and sports cycles. | ||
A forward P/E of 11.4x is attractively valued, and the stock is outperforming peers. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 14x as earnings hold up over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterCommunication services carries a -0.8 sector modifier and the analyst target is only 7.6% above the price, so the cheapness is partly priced in. | ||
Free cash flow is only 33% of net income, flagged as an earnings quality red flag, despite a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow rises to at least 70% of net income within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterCash flow in media is lumpy because of rights payments and timing, so a single-year ratio can overstate the problem. | ||
Short interest stands at 28%, a large bearish position against a company with a perfect beat streak. Key risks | Short interest falls below 20% as earnings continue to beat. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterShorts may be hedging the dual share classes or expecting a cyclical advertising downturn that the beat streak does not capture. | ||
Revenue grew 28% year over year to $4.21B in the latest quarter from $3.29B a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Year-over-year revenue growth stays above 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterPolitical-cycle advertising and event-driven sports revenue make comparisons uneven; the quarter before was $3.99B against $5.18B and $3.74B in other periods. | ||
EPS beat estimates in all four recent quarters with an average surprise of 40.4%, including $1.79 versus $1.38 in August.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS continues to beat consensus over the next four reports.
CounterEstimates are being set far too low, which makes surprises large but may not reflect underlying growth; earnings are also seasonally uneven across news and sports cycles.
A forward P/E of 11.4x is attractively valued, and the stock is outperforming peers.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 14x as earnings hold up over the next 12 months.
CounterCommunication services carries a -0.8 sector modifier and the analyst target is only 7.6% above the price, so the cheapness is partly priced in.
Free cash flow is only 33% of net income, flagged as an earnings quality red flag, despite a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow rises to at least 70% of net income within 12 months.
CounterCash flow in media is lumpy because of rights payments and timing, so a single-year ratio can overstate the problem.
Short interest stands at 28%, a large bearish position against a company with a perfect beat streak.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 20% as earnings continue to beat.
CounterShorts may be hedging the dual share classes or expecting a cyclical advertising downturn that the beat streak does not capture.
Revenue grew 28% year over year to $4.21B in the latest quarter from $3.29B a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Year-over-year revenue growth stays above 10%.
CounterPolitical-cycle advertising and event-driven sports revenue make comparisons uneven; the quarter before was $3.99B against $5.18B and $3.74B in other periods.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.8 |
| ROA | 6.3 |
| Gross margin | 3.3 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 4.9 |
| Current ratio | 9.8 |
| FCF quality | 2.6 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 33% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.5 |
| EPS growth | 2.6 |
- ▸Strong growth: 28% YoY
Momentum
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 3.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.4 |
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 7.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 20%
Insider
6.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.8 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
7.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.3 |
| quality rank | 7.9 |
| growth rank | 9.0 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.2 |
| support resistance | 2.8 |
| 52w position | 7.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 3.6 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 3.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.3 |
| debt equity | 7.2 |
- ▸High short interest: 29%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.77
- ▸Above max pain $25
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.04
Upside
+8.1%
Downside
7.8%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Catalyst at 8.3; weakest: Risk (lower is worse) at 3.4. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 8.3, Value at 7.9, and Peer rank at 7.2; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.4, Momentum at 3.5, and Technical at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.04 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Large Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Reasonable Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x from the current 11.4x.
- P3Weak Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow rises above 70% of net income from the current 33%.
- P4High Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest falls below 15% of float from the current 28%.
- P5Revenue Growth Momentum
Trip ifYear-over-year revenue growth falls below 5% for 2 consecutive quarters.