Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 9.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.52
- ▸Attractively valued
FNB · Why this verdict
Why F.N.B. (FNB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At 9.3 times forward earnings and a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.50, the stock screens as attractively valued in both absolute and growth-adjusted terms, with the value dimension placing it well above the peer group median. Valuation breakdown | Forward earnings estimates are maintained or raised over the next 4 quarters, preserving the valuation discount to the broader regional bank sector. | →Stable |
| CounterValuation is only as durable as the earnings underpinning it; the noted absence of a competitive moat means there is no structural pricing power to defend those earnings against an adverse operating environment. | ||
A golden cross, above-all-moving-averages positioning, rising on-balance volume, and an RSI of 63 form a constructive technical picture; momentum cleared the minimum threshold with a reading of 7.5, placing this in the upper tier of the breakout setup category. Engine gate (passed) | The stock holds above all key moving averages for 6 months and on-balance volume continues to trend higher, confirming the breakout is being sustained by genuine buying interest. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is within 4.4% of its 52-week high with only about 0.9% remaining to the near-term price target; late-cycle technical strength at this proximity to all-time highs can reverse quickly once the breakout momentum is absorbed. | ||
Three of the four most recent quarters delivered positive earnings surprises — including beats of 22.7%, 10.4%, and 6.3% in the three older quarters of the set — with the most recent quarter coming in essentially at the estimate after the streak; the overall delivery record remains favorable. Earnings | The company resumes positive earnings surprises above 3% for at least 2 of the next 3 quarters, confirming the beat streak was not an aberration. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter delivered an in-line result after the string of beats, breaking the positive streak at a moment when the stock is near its 52-week high and the target is largely reached; delivery stalling at this point historically increases downside risk. | ||
Short interest at 11% and a put/call ratio of 42.86 indicate substantial defensive positioning against this stock; these conditions raise the risk of a sharp downside move if sentiment deteriorates, particularly given the minimal upside remaining to the price target. Risk breakdown | Short interest declines below 6% within 6 months as the fundamental case strengthens and the bearish positioning is unwound. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated short interest at a stock near its 52-week high can fuel an accelerated upside squeeze if earnings come in positively; the defensive positioning itself creates potential energy for a rally if the bear case proves wrong. | ||
At 9.3 times forward earnings and a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.50, the stock screens as attractively valued in both absolute and growth-adjusted terms, with the value dimension placing it well above the peer group median.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward earnings estimates are maintained or raised over the next 4 quarters, preserving the valuation discount to the broader regional bank sector.
CounterValuation is only as durable as the earnings underpinning it; the noted absence of a competitive moat means there is no structural pricing power to defend those earnings against an adverse operating environment.
A golden cross, above-all-moving-averages positioning, rising on-balance volume, and an RSI of 63 form a constructive technical picture; momentum cleared the minimum threshold with a reading of 7.5, placing this in the upper tier of the breakout setup category.
→StableEngine gate (passed)
- Expectation
- The stock holds above all key moving averages for 6 months and on-balance volume continues to trend higher, confirming the breakout is being sustained by genuine buying interest.
CounterThe stock is within 4.4% of its 52-week high with only about 0.9% remaining to the near-term price target; late-cycle technical strength at this proximity to all-time highs can reverse quickly once the breakout momentum is absorbed.
Three of the four most recent quarters delivered positive earnings surprises — including beats of 22.7%, 10.4%, and 6.3% in the three older quarters of the set — with the most recent quarter coming in essentially at the estimate after the streak; the overall delivery record remains favorable.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company resumes positive earnings surprises above 3% for at least 2 of the next 3 quarters, confirming the beat streak was not an aberration.
CounterThe most recent quarter delivered an in-line result after the string of beats, breaking the positive streak at a moment when the stock is near its 52-week high and the target is largely reached; delivery stalling at this point historically increases downside risk.
Short interest at 11% and a put/call ratio of 42.86 indicate substantial defensive positioning against this stock; these conditions raise the risk of a sharp downside move if sentiment deteriorates, particularly given the minimal upside remaining to the price target.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest declines below 6% within 6 months as the fundamental case strengthens and the bearish positioning is unwound.
CounterElevated short interest at a stock near its 52-week high can fuel an accelerated upside squeeze if earnings come in positively; the defensive positioning itself creates potential energy for a rally if the bear case proves wrong.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Strong momentum, three prior earnings beats, and an attractive 9.3 times forward earnings multiple are offset by near-zero remaining upside to the price target, an extremely elevated put/call ratio, and 11% short interest — making this a hold rather than a new entry at current prices.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.0 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 34%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
5.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.9 |
| EPS growth | 5.8 |
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 7.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.8 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.9 |
| Price target | 6.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $352,070 (0.005% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 3.6 |
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.7 |
| support resistance | 2.4 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.5 |
| days to cover | 3.8 |
| volatility | 7.3 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 6.25
- ▸High IV: 109%
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.3 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
- ▸Dividend: 273.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (3)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.56
Upside
-5.1%
Downside
9.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 13d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 7.9; weakest: Risk (lower is worse) at 3.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Sentiment at 6.6, and Catalyst at 6.5; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.9, Technical at 4.8, and Peer rank at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.56 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifForward earnings estimates decline more than 25% from current levels, causing the implied forward P/E to rise above 12x.
- P2Technical Breakout Momentum
Trip ifStock closes below the 200-day moving average for 10 consecutive trading days, breaking the uptrend structure.
- P3Earnings Beat Track Record
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -5% for 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the positive delivery pattern.
- P4Elevated Short Interest And Options Skew
Trip ifShort interest falls below 5% and put/call ratio returns below 3.0, signaling the defensive positioning has fully unwound.