Value
6.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.7 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.0 |
| PEG | 6.6 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.10
FLR · Why this verdict
Why Fluor (FLR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Fluor has missed earnings consensus in 3 of the past 4 quarters, with the most recent miss a severe -77% shortfall — the company is consistently delivering results well below analyst expectations. Earnings | EPS beats consensus in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, establishing that the most recent severe miss was idiosyncratic rather than a new baseline. | →Stable |
| CounterOne quarter in the set produced a 51% positive surprise, proving the business can deliver strong results; project-based revenues are inherently lumpy, and a single large contract recognition can swing reported earnings dramatically from period to period. | ||
Business quality scores are below the floor required for position consideration, with no identifiable competitive advantage, and only a partial set of profitability metrics available — the franchise lacks the durability characteristics needed to weather earnings volatility. Quality | Quality improves above 4.0 within 12 months as operating margins become consistently positive and the Piotroski score rises. | →Stable |
| CounterThe free-cash-flow quality component registers at a relatively healthy level, suggesting that cash generation may be better than the income statement profitability metrics imply — if cash flow is the more durable signal, the quality floor concern may be overstated. | ||
The stock has moved past its near-term resistance target, leaving only 1% of headroom to the price target, and the risk/reward geometry is unfavorable — potential downside of 7% outweighs the remaining upside. Price targets | The setup becomes actionable if the price pulls back to create a reward-to-risk ratio greater than 1.5-to-1. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong technical momentum — a golden cross, above all moving averages, bullish MACD, and rising on-balance volume — suggests buyers remain in control; price can consolidate at elevated levels without reversing if order book expectations improve. | ||
Revenue declined 8% year-over-year, and the growth dimension scores near the bottom of the range, indicating the business is shrinking its top line even as the technical chart prints new highs. Growth | Revenue growth turns positive on a year-over-year basis for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming that the top-line contraction is reversing. | →Stable |
| CounterEngineering and construction revenues can decline during a project backlog drawdown phase before a new contract cycle begins; if the backlog is building while revenues temporarily fall, the revenue contraction may be a leading indicator of future growth rather than a structural decline. | ||
Fluor has missed earnings consensus in 3 of the past 4 quarters, with the most recent miss a severe -77% shortfall — the company is consistently delivering results well below analyst expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats consensus in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, establishing that the most recent severe miss was idiosyncratic rather than a new baseline.
CounterOne quarter in the set produced a 51% positive surprise, proving the business can deliver strong results; project-based revenues are inherently lumpy, and a single large contract recognition can swing reported earnings dramatically from period to period.
Business quality scores are below the floor required for position consideration, with no identifiable competitive advantage, and only a partial set of profitability metrics available — the franchise lacks the durability characteristics needed to weather earnings volatility.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- Quality improves above 4.0 within 12 months as operating margins become consistently positive and the Piotroski score rises.
CounterThe free-cash-flow quality component registers at a relatively healthy level, suggesting that cash generation may be better than the income statement profitability metrics imply — if cash flow is the more durable signal, the quality floor concern may be overstated.
The stock has moved past its near-term resistance target, leaving only 1% of headroom to the price target, and the risk/reward geometry is unfavorable — potential downside of 7% outweighs the remaining upside.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- The setup becomes actionable if the price pulls back to create a reward-to-risk ratio greater than 1.5-to-1.
CounterStrong technical momentum — a golden cross, above all moving averages, bullish MACD, and rising on-balance volume — suggests buyers remain in control; price can consolidate at elevated levels without reversing if order book expectations improve.
Revenue declined 8% year-over-year, and the growth dimension scores near the bottom of the range, indicating the business is shrinking its top line even as the technical chart prints new highs.
→StableGrowth
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive on a year-over-year basis for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming that the top-line contraction is reversing.
CounterEngineering and construction revenues can decline during a project backlog drawdown phase before a new contract cycle begins; if the backlog is building while revenues temporarily fall, the revenue contraction may be a leading indicator of future growth rather than a structural decline.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Fluor Corporation is in a technically constructive breakout with strong momentum, but the stock has exceeded its near-term price target with negative asymmetry, three of the past four earnings reports were misses, and business quality sits below the minimum acceptable threshold — the technical strength is not matched by fundamental conviction.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 1.2 |
| Current ratio | 6.4 |
| FCF quality | 6.9 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
0.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.5 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -8%
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.4 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 5.3 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.47 (n=3)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.7 |
| quality rank | 2.2 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.8 |
| support resistance | 4.1 |
| 52w position | 7.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.2 |
| days to cover | 7.2 |
| volatility | 1.9 |
| put call | 5.1 |
| implied vol | 2.6 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 8.5 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 64%
Catalyst
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.23
Upside
-11.3%
Downside
9.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 6.7 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.7, Sentiment at 6.5, and Technical at 5.6; the weakest are Growth at 0.5, Peer rank at 2.7, and Momentum at 3.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.23 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Execution Deterioration
Trip ifEPS exceeds consensus in 2 of the next 4 consecutive quarters.
- P2Quality Below Minimum Threshold
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Target Exceeded Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifReward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5-to-1 following a pullback from current levels.
- P4Revenue Contraction Backdrop
Trip ifRevenue growth exceeds 0% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.