Value
9.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.8 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.21
- ▸Attractively valued
FIS · Why this verdict
Why Fidelity National Information S (FIS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Fidelity National Information Services is a deeply discounted (forward P/E 5.8x), fast-growing technology services company with a 4.6% dividend yield, but it remains below a falling 200-day average, leverage is elevated, and upside to the analyst target is only 9.8%.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
FIS is growing about 29% year over year with margins of about 28%, among the best in its peer group. Growth breakdown | Year-over-year growth stays above 10% and margins above 22% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow is only 79% of net income, an earnings quality warning, and growth of 29% may include one-time items. | ||
FIS trades at a forward P/E of 5.8x with a PEG of 0.20, attractive versus peers. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 9x while earnings grow over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock is 42% off its 52-week high, so a low multiple may reflect real concern about durability of earnings. | ||
The stock is bouncing (RSI 72) but remains below its 200-day average, which is sloping down 9.2% over 30 days, a confirmed downtrend. Momentum breakdown | The price reclaims its 200-day moving average within 12 months. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA bear-market rally with rising on-balance volume and a 2.4 times volume surge often fails, and the downtrend could resume. | ||
The analyst target of $42.34 is only 9.8% above the $38.55 price, against 15.0% downside to the stop, and debt-to-equity of 1.3 triggers a leverage penalty. Bear case | Upside to the target widens above 20% or debt-to-equity falls below 1.0. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag price recoveries, and strong growth could drive upgrades. | ||
The dividend yields 4.6% and the company is classed as a dividend aristocrat. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend is maintained or raised, keeping the yield at 4% or more. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA 4.6% yield after a 42% price drop may partly reflect distress rather than strength, and a payout cut would remove support. | ||
FIS is growing about 29% year over year with margins of about 28%, among the best in its peer group.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Year-over-year growth stays above 10% and margins above 22% over the next 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow is only 79% of net income, an earnings quality warning, and growth of 29% may include one-time items.
FIS trades at a forward P/E of 5.8x with a PEG of 0.20, attractive versus peers.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 9x while earnings grow over the next 12 months.
CounterThe stock is 42% off its 52-week high, so a low multiple may reflect real concern about durability of earnings.
The stock is bouncing (RSI 72) but remains below its 200-day average, which is sloping down 9.2% over 30 days, a confirmed downtrend.
Tripped↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price reclaims its 200-day moving average within 12 months.
CounterA bear-market rally with rising on-balance volume and a 2.4 times volume surge often fails, and the downtrend could resume.
The analyst target of $42.34 is only 9.8% above the $38.55 price, against 15.0% downside to the stop, and debt-to-equity of 1.3 triggers a leverage penalty.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Upside to the target widens above 20% or debt-to-equity falls below 1.0.
CounterAnalyst targets lag price recoveries, and strong growth could drive upgrades.
The dividend yields 4.6% and the company is classed as a dividend aristocrat.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend is maintained or raised, keeping the yield at 4% or more.
CounterA 4.6% yield after a 42% price drop may partly reflect distress rather than strength, and a payout cut would remove support.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.4 |
| ROA | 2.9 |
| Gross margin | 3.2 |
| Op margin | 8.3 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.1 |
| FCF quality | 5.9 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸Strong margins: 28%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 79% FCF/NI
Growth
9.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.8 |
- ▸Strong growth: 29% YoY
Momentum
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 1.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
- ▸Volume surge (3.5x avg) on selloff
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 60%
Insider
3.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 2.6 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $57,694 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.0 |
| quality rank | 7.8 |
| growth rank | 8.1 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.8 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 7.5 |
- ▸Extreme gap down (-21.6%) - potential reversal
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 3.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.9 |
| debt equity | 4.3 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 6.50
- ▸Above max pain $25
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.4 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings today
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 4.5% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:3.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
3.24
Upside
+43.6%
Downside
13.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -56% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 9.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.24 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.8, Value at 9.0, and Sentiment at 7.6; the weakest are Momentum at 2.9, Insider at 3.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.24 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Low Multiples
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 10x from the current 5.8x.
- P2Strong Growth And Margins
Trip ifYear-over-year growth falls below 5% from the current 29%.
- P3Downtrend Despite BounceTripped
Trip ifPrice drops to below the $35.95 stop level from the current $38.55.
- P4Thin Upside High Leverage
Trip ifDebt-to-equity exceeds 1.8 from the current 1.3.
- P5High Dividend Yield
Trip ifDividend yield falls below 3% from the current 4.6% because of a cut.