Value
8.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.4 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.23
- ▸Attractively valued
FIS · Why this verdict
Why Fidelity National Information S (FIS) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew 30% year-over-year, placing the business among the top growth names in its peer set—a pace that rarely justifies a single-digit forward earnings multiple if it proves durable, and which positions the stock for a meaningful re-rating. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 15% YoY for the next 2 reported quarters, validating the durability of the expansion. | →Stable |
| CounterThe four-quarter earnings history shows a miss and an in-line result in the two older periods, suggesting quarterly execution can be inconsistent; a single-period growth spike may include non-recurring items that flatter the YoY comparison. | ||
At a forward P/E of 5.7x and a PEG ratio of 0.22, the stock trades at a substantial discount to its expected earnings power, with analyst consensus pointing to 35% upside—a gap that is wide even accounting for moderate leverage. Valuation breakdown | Multiple expansion narrows the gap toward the analyst consensus target of $52.61 over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterInstitutional sellers are actively distributing shares as evidenced by falling on-balance volume; cheap multiples can persist and compress further while distribution pressure remains in force. | ||
A death cross formed and both the momentum and moving-average alignment thresholds failed, with on-balance volume in sustained decline—collectively signaling that institutional sellers currently control near-term price direction. Warnings | Price closes above the 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume for 4 consecutive weeks, reversing the distribution pattern. | →Stable |
| CounterWith the stock screening at a 35% discount to analyst consensus, a single positive earnings catalyst or sector rotation can compress a death-cross setup rapidly when the underlying valuation gap is this wide. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 indicates healthy financial positioning across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency dimensions, providing a quality floor that reduces insolvency risk even amid downward price pressure. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above in the next 2 reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterGross margin scores below 4 out of 10 and moderate leverage add sensitivity to interest-rate or credit conditions; if the operating environment tightens, the Piotroski strength could erode faster than the headline net margin of 23% suggests. | ||
Revenue grew 30% year-over-year, placing the business among the top growth names in its peer set—a pace that rarely justifies a single-digit forward earnings multiple if it proves durable, and which positions the stock for a meaningful re-rating.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 15% YoY for the next 2 reported quarters, validating the durability of the expansion.
CounterThe four-quarter earnings history shows a miss and an in-line result in the two older periods, suggesting quarterly execution can be inconsistent; a single-period growth spike may include non-recurring items that flatter the YoY comparison.
At a forward P/E of 5.7x and a PEG ratio of 0.22, the stock trades at a substantial discount to its expected earnings power, with analyst consensus pointing to 35% upside—a gap that is wide even accounting for moderate leverage.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Multiple expansion narrows the gap toward the analyst consensus target of $52.61 over 12 months.
CounterInstitutional sellers are actively distributing shares as evidenced by falling on-balance volume; cheap multiples can persist and compress further while distribution pressure remains in force.
A death cross formed and both the momentum and moving-average alignment thresholds failed, with on-balance volume in sustained decline—collectively signaling that institutional sellers currently control near-term price direction.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Price closes above the 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume for 4 consecutive weeks, reversing the distribution pattern.
CounterWith the stock screening at a 35% discount to analyst consensus, a single positive earnings catalyst or sector rotation can compress a death-cross setup rapidly when the underlying valuation gap is this wide.
A Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 indicates healthy financial positioning across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency dimensions, providing a quality floor that reduces insolvency risk even amid downward price pressure.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above in the next 2 reporting periods.
CounterGross margin scores below 4 out of 10 and moderate leverage add sensitivity to interest-rate or credit conditions; if the operating environment tightens, the Piotroski strength could erode faster than the headline net margin of 23% suggests.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
FIS offers a forward P/E of 5.7x alongside 30% revenue growth and 35% analyst-implied upside to $52.61, yet a confirmed death-cross downtrend and failed momentum gates make this a setup to monitor rather than add to at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.7 |
| ROA | 2.7 |
| Gross margin | 3.3 |
| Op margin | 6.6 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.4 |
| FCF quality | 6.6 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 23%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 30% YoY
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.1 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
| erm sentiment | 4.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 40%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $56,726 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 7.7 |
| growth rank | 8.6 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
0.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.6 |
| 52w position | 0.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 5.2 |
| put call | 3.7 |
| implied vol | 3.4 |
| beta | 8.2 |
| debt equity | 4.4 |
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.4 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 402.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.8>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.47
Upside
+25.8%
Downside
10.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 69
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -48% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Technical at 0.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.8, and Sentiment at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 0.3, Insider at 5.0, and Catalyst at 5.2. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.47 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth Rate
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Deep Value Attractive Multiples
Trip ifForward P/E multiple expands above 12x as the share price rises above the analyst consensus target of $52.61.
- P3Technical Breakdown Downtrend Risk
Trip ifPrice closes above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume turns positive for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P4Financial Quality Piotroski Cushion
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 in any single reporting period.