First Financial Bankshares posts strong operating quality—42% net margins, a Piotroski financial strength score of 8 out of 9, and two consecutive earnings beats after a single miss—but the stock is trading at resistance with only 0.1% headroom to the near-term price target and a risk/reward ratio of 0.02 that leaves little room for new buyers.
Thesis pillars
- Net Margin And Financial Strength→Stable
- Texas Geographic Concentration↑Improving
- Earnings Resilience Recovery→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
First Financial Bankshares, Inc (FFIN) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $34.68 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas.
First Financial Bankshares operates 79 financial centers exclusively in Texas through First Financial Bank, a Texas banking association supervised by the Federal Reserve Board and the Texas Department of Banking, with total assets of $15.45 billion at December 31, 2025 — grown... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $34.68 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About First Financial Bankshares, Inc
About First Financial Bankshares, Inc
First Financial Bankshares operated 79 financial centers across Texas at December 31, 2025, with total assets of $15.45 billion grown from $1.57 billion through fourteen bank acquisitions since 1997. The company conducts commercial banking and trust and wealth management through First Financial Bank and First Financial Trust & Asset Management Company, employing approximately 1,600 associates supervised by the Federal Reserve Board and the Texas Department of Banking. Investment securities totaled $5.51 billion, or 35.70% of total assets, at December 31, 2025.
First Financial Bankshares earns primarily from net interest income generated by commercial lending, real estate lending, and consumer loans, with eight regional divisions each operating under local advisory boards and regional presidents who average approximately twenty-seven years of banking experience. The trust company holds nine locations, all in Texas, offering personal trust, estate administration, oil and gas management, and retirement plan services since 1927. The filing states that the company does not depend on any single customer or any few customers, and none of its approximately 1,600 employees are represented by collective bargaining agreements. The available-for-sale investment securities portfolio carried a net unrealized loss of $342.03 million at December 31, 2025, reflecting the elevated interest rate environment following the Federal Reserve's reduction of the target fed funds range to 3.50%–3.75% by year-end.
Show full overview
All banking operations are confined to Texas, a strategic choice the 10-K makes explicit. The filing identifies a downturn in the Texas market as a specific liquidity risk factor, noting that access to funding could be impaired by local adverse conditions. Texas concentration brings demographic support — the state's population grew 17.60% from 2014 to 2024 per the U.S. Census Bureau — but the filing also flags that hurricanes, tornadoes, extended drought, and other natural disasters could simultaneously impair borrowers' repayment capacity, deposit stability, and collateral values across the entire footprint in a single event.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From First Financial Bankshares, Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — First Financial Bankshares, Inc
Latest news
- NEWS First (FFIN) Stock Opportunities (+0.15%) 2026-04-22 - Real Time Stock Idea Network - Cổng thông tin điện tử Tỉnh Sơn La — Cổng thông tin điện tử Tỉnh Sơn La positive
- NEWS Why First Financial Bankshares (FFIN) is a Top Dividend Stock for Your Portfolio - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS First (FFIN) Stock: Breaking Levels? (At Lows) 2026-04-15 - Upside Potential - Cổng thông tin điện tử Tỉnh Sơn La — Cổng thông tin điện tử Tỉnh Sơn La neutral
- NEWS Net revenue after provisions of First Financial Bankshares, Inc. – NASDAQ:FFIN - TradingView — Track All Markets — TradingView — Track All Markets positive
- NEWS Net income from continuing operations of First Financial Bankshares, Inc. – NASDAQ:FFIN - TradingView — TradingView neutral
Generated 2026-07-26T08:02:04Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicTexas10-K Item 1: 'We have chosen to keep our Company focused on the State of Texas'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $34.68 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $33.24. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $35.79 (-7.2% upside). Prior stop was $33.24. Stop-loss: $33.24.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.
First Financial Bankshares, Inc trades at a P/E of 18.4 (forward 16.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover FFIN with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $37.
What does First Financial Bankshares, Inc do?First Financial Bankshares operates 79 financial centers exclusively in Texas through First Financial Bank, a Texas...
First Financial Bankshares operates 79 financial centers exclusively in Texas through First Financial Bank, a Texas banking association supervised by the Federal Reserve Board and the Texas Department of Banking, with total assets of $15.45 billion at December 31, 2025 — grown from $1.57 billion through fourteen acquisitions since 1997. The company provides commercial banking, consumer lending, and trust/wealth management across Central, North Central, Southeast, and West Texas, employing approximately 1,600 associates.