Value
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.6 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.8 |
| PEG | 6.3 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.7x
- ▸PEG: 1.17
FDS · Why this verdict
Why FactSet Research Systems (FDS) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At 13.2% below its resistance-derived take-profit target of $266.95 with a 1.89-to-1 reward/risk ratio that meets the asymmetry bar, the stock offers material room to run if the technical headwinds resolve — and 18% short interest creates a potential for accelerated upside if positive catalysts emerge and force short covering. Price targets | Price advances above $258, capturing more than 70% of the documented upside to the $266.95 take-profit target over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA favorable reward/risk ratio that meets the asymmetry bar does not guarantee the upside is captured on any particular schedule; two hard technical blocks and a confirmed downtrend can keep the gap to target intact for extended periods even when business quality is high. | ||
The business carries a wide economic moat, generates a return on equity of 28%, runs margins at approximately 24%, and demonstrates strong returns combined with growth — characteristics associated with businesses that compound value durably over time. Quality breakdown | Net margin sustains at or above 22% for the next four quarters, confirming that the moat-driven profitability advantage remains structurally intact. | →Stable |
| CounterEven a wide moat does not guarantee earnings growth; with the growth dimension scoring near the bottom of the range, the franchise may be sustaining profitability rather than expanding it, which can limit multiple expansion even as quality stays high. | ||
The two most recent quarters both exceeded consensus — beating by 1.9% and 3.5% respectively — after two prior quarters that came in below estimates, suggesting an improving earnings delivery trend even if the magnitude of outperformance remains modest. Earnings | EPS beats continue for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average positive surprise above 2%, confirming the delivery trend has sustainably turned. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo consecutive beats is not sufficient evidence of a durable reversal; the two prior misses occurred within the same 12-month window, and with the growth dimension among the weakest in the scoring profile, the delivery cadence could easily revert. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the average slope declining approximately 8.4% over the past month — a steep confirmed downtrend — accompanied by a death cross that constitutes a hard technical block against new exposure. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average with the slope turning positive and sustains that level for 4 consecutive weeks, invalidating the downtrend. | →Stable |
| CounterOn-balance volume is rising even as price declines — a positive divergence suggesting buyers are quietly accumulating shares — which can precede trend reversal and indicates the selloff may be exhausting itself ahead of a technical recovery. | ||
With 65% of revenue from the Americas — above the 60% threshold that triggers a hard geographic block — and 82% of clients from the buy-side segment, the business carries two overlapping concentration exposures: a regional macroeconomic shock or a structural shift in buy-side spending would be an idiosyncratic headwind with limited natural offset. Bear case | Americas revenue share falls below 60% or buy-side client concentration falls below 75% over the next four quarters as diversification proceeds, removing the concentration cliff designation. | →Stable |
| CounterDeep concentration in a single region and client segment often reflects genuine competitive advantage in the core market rather than structural risk; the Americas and buy-side dominance may persist as a durable feature of where the franchise is strongest, not a liability if those end markets remain healthy. | ||
At 13.2% below its resistance-derived take-profit target of $266.95 with a 1.89-to-1 reward/risk ratio that meets the asymmetry bar, the stock offers material room to run if the technical headwinds resolve — and 18% short interest creates a potential for accelerated upside if positive catalysts emerge and force short covering.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price advances above $258, capturing more than 70% of the documented upside to the $266.95 take-profit target over the next 12 months.
CounterA favorable reward/risk ratio that meets the asymmetry bar does not guarantee the upside is captured on any particular schedule; two hard technical blocks and a confirmed downtrend can keep the gap to target intact for extended periods even when business quality is high.
The business carries a wide economic moat, generates a return on equity of 28%, runs margins at approximately 24%, and demonstrates strong returns combined with growth — characteristics associated with businesses that compound value durably over time.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin sustains at or above 22% for the next four quarters, confirming that the moat-driven profitability advantage remains structurally intact.
CounterEven a wide moat does not guarantee earnings growth; with the growth dimension scoring near the bottom of the range, the franchise may be sustaining profitability rather than expanding it, which can limit multiple expansion even as quality stays high.
The two most recent quarters both exceeded consensus — beating by 1.9% and 3.5% respectively — after two prior quarters that came in below estimates, suggesting an improving earnings delivery trend even if the magnitude of outperformance remains modest.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats continue for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average positive surprise above 2%, confirming the delivery trend has sustainably turned.
CounterTwo consecutive beats is not sufficient evidence of a durable reversal; the two prior misses occurred within the same 12-month window, and with the growth dimension among the weakest in the scoring profile, the delivery cadence could easily revert.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the average slope declining approximately 8.4% over the past month — a steep confirmed downtrend — accompanied by a death cross that constitutes a hard technical block against new exposure.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average with the slope turning positive and sustains that level for 4 consecutive weeks, invalidating the downtrend.
CounterOn-balance volume is rising even as price declines — a positive divergence suggesting buyers are quietly accumulating shares — which can precede trend reversal and indicates the selloff may be exhausting itself ahead of a technical recovery.
With 65% of revenue from the Americas — above the 60% threshold that triggers a hard geographic block — and 82% of clients from the buy-side segment, the business carries two overlapping concentration exposures: a regional macroeconomic shock or a structural shift in buy-side spending would be an idiosyncratic headwind with limited natural offset.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Americas revenue share falls below 60% or buy-side client concentration falls below 75% over the next four quarters as diversification proceeds, removing the concentration cliff designation.
CounterDeep concentration in a single region and client segment often reflects genuine competitive advantage in the core market rather than structural risk; the Americas and buy-side dominance may persist as a durable feature of where the franchise is strongest, not a liability if those end markets remain healthy.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
FactSet is a high-quality financial data franchise with a wide economic moat, strong returns, and 13.2% headroom to its resistance target — but a confirmed price downtrend, geographic and customer concentration blocks, and mixed earnings delivery create a complex setup where franchise quality and technical risk pull in opposite directions.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.0 |
| ROA | 7.4 |
| Gross margin | 6.3 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.7 |
| FCF quality | 7.5 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 27%
- ▸Strong margins: 23%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
2.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.1 |
| EPS growth | 0.1 |
Momentum
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 4.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.6 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.2 |
| quality rank | 4.9 |
| growth rank | 0.9 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.3 |
| support resistance | 2.5 |
| 52w position | 1.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 4.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.4 |
| implied vol | 2.6 |
| beta | 8.7 |
| debt equity | 6.4 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Short squeeze setup: 17% short, quality 7.5
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.94
- ▸High IV: 64%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.2 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 186.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.40
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:76d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
- FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=7.6>=7.5+momentum=7.6>=5.0 exempted
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.65
Upside
-9.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 58, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -44% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE, FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.65 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.6, Momentum at 7.6, and Value at 6.6; the weakest are Growth at 2.1, Technical at 2.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.65 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Economic Moat Quality
Trip ifNet margin compresses below 20% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Recovery Trend
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Confirmed Downtrend Technical Breakdown
Trip ifThe 200-day moving-average slope rises above 0% and price holds above the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks, confirming the confirmed downtrend has reversed.
- P4Geographic Customer Concentration Cliff
Trip ifAmericas revenue share falls below 60% of total revenue for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Material Upside With Short Overhang
Trip ifPrice advances above $258, capturing more than 70% of the gap to the $266.95 take-profit target.