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FBPFirst BanCorp. NewHold6.4·$28.82-0.10%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The bank has compiled a perfect four-quarter beat streak with average earnings surprises exceeding 14% and posts best-in-class margins of 38%, yet the stock has advanced to within less than 1% of its resistance target, producing a risk/reward of 0.11-to-1 that does not support new positions; the quality case is compelling, but the entry geometry is not.

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Earnings Beat StreakImproving
  • Best In Class MarginsDeteriorating
  • Price Target ExhaustionStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

First BanCorp. New (FBP) Stock Analysis

HoldGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $28.82, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.6% away).

First BanCorp. operates FirstBank, a Puerto Rico-chartered commercial bank, with 57 branches in Puerto Rico, 8 in the U.S. Virgin Islands and British Virgin Islands, and 8 in Florida, regulated by OCIF and the FDIC. At December 31, 2025, total assets reached $19.1 billion, with... Read more

$28.82-7.3% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#46 of 223 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.77%(5y avg 3.17%)Payout32.89%sustainable
Stop $27.74Target $28.42(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$30.71+6.6%7 analysts
$28.42our TP
$28.82price
$30.71mean
$28
$33

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $28.82, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.6% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26

Recent Developments — First BanCorp. New

Generated 2026-07-26T06:22:13Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 22, 202688d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Positive momentum
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.6% away)
Overbought (RSI 77)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.8
P/E (Fwd)11.5
Mkt Cap$4.4B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn39.0%
ROE19.5%
Rev Growth9.4%
Beta0.81
Dividend2.77%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

IV46%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicPuerto Rico
    10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our business activities and credit exposure is concentrated in Puerto Rico, which has faced prolonged economic and fiscal challenges.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-12Item 5.02LOW
    On May 6, 2026, First BanCorp stockholders approved the 2026 Omnibus Incentive Plan authorizing 5,000,000 shares for stock-based awards to officers, employees, and directors, replacing the 2016 plan. Board-approved March 19, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.2
Support Resistance
0.5
52w Position
9.9
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 88d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
77 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $25.72Resistance $29.00

Price Targets

$28
$28
A.Upside-7.3%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.3% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-22 (88d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FBP stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $28.82, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.6% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $28.42 (-1.4%), stop $27.74 (−3.9%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FBP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $28.42 (-7.3% upside). Target $28.42 (-1.4%), stop $27.74 (−3.9%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $27.74.

What are the risks of investing in FBP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.6% away); Overbought (RSI 77).

Is FBP overvalued or undervalued?

First BanCorp. New trades at a P/E of 12.8 (forward 11.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about FBP?

10 analysts cover FBP with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $31.

What does First BanCorp. New do?First BanCorp. operates FirstBank, a Puerto Rico-chartered commercial bank, with 57 branches in Puerto Rico, 8 in the...

First BanCorp. operates FirstBank, a Puerto Rico-chartered commercial bank, with 57 branches in Puerto Rico, 8 in the U.S. Virgin Islands and British Virgin Islands, and 8 in Florida, regulated by OCIF and the FDIC. At December 31, 2025, total assets reached $19.1 billion, with $13.1 billion in loans and $16.7 billion in deposits across six segments: mortgage banking, retail, commercial, treasury, U.S. operations, and Virgin Islands operations.

Related stocks: CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · BWFG (Bankwell Financial Group, Inc.) · BHB (Bar Harbor Bankshares, Inc.) · NBBK (NB Bancorp, Inc.) · NBN (Northeast Bank)
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