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FBPFirst BanCorp. NewHold5.7·$26.33-1.35%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The bank has compiled a perfect four-quarter beat streak with average earnings surprises exceeding 14% and posts best-in-class margins of 38%, yet the stock has advanced to within less than 1% of its resistance target, producing a risk/reward of 0.11-to-1 that does not support new positions; the quality case is compelling, but the entry geometry is not.

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Best In Class MarginsStable
  • Price Target ExhaustionStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

First BanCorp. New (FBP) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.3% away).

First BanCorp. operates FirstBank, a Puerto Rico-chartered commercial bank, with 57 branches in Puerto Rico, 8 in the U.S. Virgin Islands and British Virgin Islands, and 8 in Florida, regulated by OCIF and the FDIC. At December 31, 2025, total assets reached $19.1 billion, with... Read more

$26.33+0.3% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#133 of 225 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.89%(5y avg 3.17%)Payout32.89%sustainable
Stop $25.21Target $26.40(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$26.83+1.9%6 analysts
$26.40our TP
$26.33price
$26.83mean
$25
$32

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.3% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 19d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06

Recent Developments — First BanCorp. New

Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:26Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202619d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.3% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.7
P/E (Fwd)11.0
Mkt Cap$4.1B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn38.2%
ROE19.0%
Rev Growth8.1%
Beta0.81
Dividend2.89%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

IV102%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicPuerto Rico
    10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our business activities and credit exposure is concentrated in Puerto Rico, which has faced prolonged economic and fiscal challenges.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-12Item 5.02LOW
    On May 6, 2026, First BanCorp stockholders approved the 2026 Omnibus Incentive Plan authorizing 5,000,000 shares for stock-based awards to officers, employees, and directors, replacing the 2016 plan. Board-approved March 19, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 4.6>=4.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 19d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $23.79Resistance $26.94

Price Targets

$25
$26
A.Upside+0.3%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.3% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (19d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FBP stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.3% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $26.40 (+0.3%), stop $25.21 (−4.4%), A.R:R -1.2:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FBP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $26.40 (+0.3% upside). Target $26.40 (+0.3%), stop $25.21 (−4.4%), A.R:R -1.2:1. Stop-loss: $25.21.

What are the risks of investing in FBP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.3% away).

Is FBP overvalued or undervalued?

First BanCorp. New trades at a P/E of 11.7 (forward 11.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about FBP?

10 analysts cover FBP with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $27.

What does First BanCorp. New do?First BanCorp. operates FirstBank, a Puerto Rico-chartered commercial bank, with 57 branches in Puerto Rico, 8 in the...

First BanCorp. operates FirstBank, a Puerto Rico-chartered commercial bank, with 57 branches in Puerto Rico, 8 in the U.S. Virgin Islands and British Virgin Islands, and 8 in Florida, regulated by OCIF and the FDIC. At December 31, 2025, total assets reached $19.1 billion, with $13.1 billion in loans and $16.7 billion in deposits across six segments: mortgage banking, retail, commercial, treasury, U.S. operations, and Virgin Islands operations.

Related stocks: NBN (Northeast Bank) · BWFG (Bankwell Financial Group, Inc.) · NPB (Northpointe Bancshares, Inc.) · CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · COFS (ChoiceOne Financial Services, I)
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