Value
8.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.36
- ▸Attractively valued
FBK · Why this verdict
Why FB Financial (FBK) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The bank has delivered approximately 32% revenue growth year-over-year and three consecutive earnings beats, yet a geographic concentration exceeding 62% in a single state triggers a hard risk block that prevents new entry regardless of fundamental quality; the setup favors patience until either the concentration is reduced or the stock retreats to a more asymmetric entry point.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
More than 62% of the bank's exposure is concentrated in a single state, crossing the threshold that triggers a hard risk block preventing new position entry regardless of fundamental merit; a regional economic shock in that geography would have an outsized and potentially irreversible impact on the loan book, which itself carries 77% real estate collateral concentration. Bear case | Over the next 12 months, the bank discloses a reduction in single-state concentration below 60%, or geographic diversification is evidenced through acquisitions or disclosed expansion into other markets. | ↑Improving |
| CounterDeep regional concentration can reflect intentional local underwriting expertise rather than passive risk accumulation; a bank that knows its geography intimately may achieve lower credit losses than a more diversified but less focused competitor. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and net margins of 25% reflect strong operational and balance sheet discipline; these characteristics tend to support earnings stability even in moderately adverse credit environments. Quality breakdown | Over the next 12 months, net margins remain above 20% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or above, confirming that balance sheet health is not deteriorating. | →Stable |
| CounterNo discernible competitive moat means these margins could compress under competitive deposit-rate pressure or weakening loan demand, and the high real estate collateral concentration leaves the quality metrics exposed to a property market downturn. | ||
Revenue has grown approximately 32% year-over-year, placing the bank among the top performers in its industry peer group; at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 10.6 times and a price-to-growth ratio of 0.34, the market is not demanding an excessive premium for this growth rate. Growth breakdown | Over the next 12 months, revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year for at least two consecutive quarters, confirming that the growth trajectory is sustained rather than mean-reverting sharply. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong recent growth in a regional bank often reflects a favorable interest rate environment or an accelerating loan-book expansion that can reverse quickly; if net interest margins compress or loan demand slows, the reported growth rate may prove unsustainable. | ||
The bank has beaten earnings estimates in three of the four most recent quarters — with an in-line quarter at the oldest period — producing an average positive surprise of approximately 4%; next earnings are due in roughly 27 days, and the recent track record favors a constructive outcome. Earnings | Over the next 12 months, the bank delivers at least three additional earnings beats, sustaining an average positive surprise above 2%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThree beats followed by an in-line quarter at the oldest reviewed period can signal that the pace of positive surprises is slowing as analysts recalibrate their estimates upward; with next earnings only weeks away, any disappointment could quickly unwind recent price appreciation. | ||
More than 62% of the bank's exposure is concentrated in a single state, crossing the threshold that triggers a hard risk block preventing new position entry regardless of fundamental merit; a regional economic shock in that geography would have an outsized and potentially irreversible impact on the loan book, which itself carries 77% real estate collateral concentration.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Over the next 12 months, the bank discloses a reduction in single-state concentration below 60%, or geographic diversification is evidenced through acquisitions or disclosed expansion into other markets.
CounterDeep regional concentration can reflect intentional local underwriting expertise rather than passive risk accumulation; a bank that knows its geography intimately may achieve lower credit losses than a more diversified but less focused competitor.
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and net margins of 25% reflect strong operational and balance sheet discipline; these characteristics tend to support earnings stability even in moderately adverse credit environments.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Over the next 12 months, net margins remain above 20% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or above, confirming that balance sheet health is not deteriorating.
CounterNo discernible competitive moat means these margins could compress under competitive deposit-rate pressure or weakening loan demand, and the high real estate collateral concentration leaves the quality metrics exposed to a property market downturn.
Revenue has grown approximately 32% year-over-year, placing the bank among the top performers in its industry peer group; at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 10.6 times and a price-to-growth ratio of 0.34, the market is not demanding an excessive premium for this growth rate.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Over the next 12 months, revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year for at least two consecutive quarters, confirming that the growth trajectory is sustained rather than mean-reverting sharply.
CounterStrong recent growth in a regional bank often reflects a favorable interest rate environment or an accelerating loan-book expansion that can reverse quickly; if net interest margins compress or loan demand slows, the reported growth rate may prove unsustainable.
The bank has beaten earnings estimates in three of the four most recent quarters — with an in-line quarter at the oldest period — producing an average positive surprise of approximately 4%; next earnings are due in roughly 27 days, and the recent track record favors a constructive outcome.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Over the next 12 months, the bank delivers at least three additional earnings beats, sustaining an average positive surprise above 2%.
CounterThree beats followed by an in-line quarter at the oldest reviewed period can signal that the pace of positive surprises is slowing as analysts recalibrate their estimates upward; with next earnings only weeks away, any disappointment could quickly unwind recent price appreciation.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.0 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 34%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
9.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 24% YoY
Momentum
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 3.7 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 81)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.2 |
Insider
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 6.4 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $1,537,788 (0.057% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.1 |
| quality rank | 6.2 |
| growth rank | 7.6 |
Technical
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.9 |
| support resistance | 1.4 |
| 52w position | 7.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.8 |
| days to cover | 6.6 |
| volatility | 7.6 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 4.5 |
| beta | 7.2 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.5 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:77d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
- FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.4>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.07
Upside
+0.7%
Downside
9.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 81
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.7B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.2; weakest: Technical at 3.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.2, Value at 8.1, and Insider at 7.0; the weakest are Technical at 3.3, Quality at 5.4, and Peer rank at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.07 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Standout Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Geographic Concentration Hard Block
Trip ifSingle-state geographic loan concentration falls below 60% as disclosed in a quarterly filing.
- P4Balance Sheet Quality Discipline
Trip ifNet margin compresses below 20% for 2 consecutive quarters.