Value
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.2 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.18
- ▸Attractively valued
EZPW · Why this verdict
Why EZCORP (EZPW) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
EZPW combines attractive valuation and roughly 46% year-over-year earnings growth with four consecutive quarters of nearly 30%-average positive surprises, but near-zero free cash flow conversion — with free cash flow at just 1% of net income — and a 24% short float introduce material quality and sentiment risk that limit the current setup to a cautious hold.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten consensus estimates in all four of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of nearly 30%, a pattern consistent with management consistently under-promising and over-delivering. That discipline raises the base-rate probability of continued outperformance at the next earnings report. Earnings | Average quarterly EPS surprise remains above 15% over the next four consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe outsized surprise magnitude may reflect chronically low street estimates in a thinly covered name rather than genuine operational outperformance; once analysts calibrate upward, the streak could break without any change in the underlying business. | ||
Revenue and earnings are expanding at approximately 46% year-over-year — placing the company as the growth leader within its industry peer group — and at a PEG ratio of 0.18, that pace is not reflected in the current multiple, leaving meaningful room for re-rating if growth is sustained. Growth breakdown | Year-over-year earnings growth remains above 20% for the next two consecutive reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 0.18 implies the market anticipates sharp deceleration; if growth reverts toward sector-average rates, even a modest compression in the multiple will more than offset the earnings expansion. | ||
Despite strong reported earnings, free cash flow is approximately 1% of net income — a significant quality red flag signaling that reported profits are not translating into actual cash. Until conversion normalizes, the reported profit growth is unreliable as a source of reinvestment capacity or shareholder returns. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow rises above 40% of net income within the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterIf the depressed conversion ratio reflects a temporary working-capital build tied to the current high-growth phase, it may self-correct as the business scales — making this a cyclical concern rather than a structural one. | ||
Short interest stands at approximately 24% of the float, a meaningful overhang that can amplify downside pressure if sentiment deteriorates; the unfavorable risk/reward geometry — about 7% upside against roughly 14% downside at spot — leaves almost no cushion for error. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 12% of float over the next two quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterElevated short interest is a dual-edged signal: it also represents latent buying power for a squeeze should the earnings beat streak continue and shorts are forced to cover into a rising tape. | ||
The company has beaten consensus estimates in all four of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of nearly 30%, a pattern consistent with management consistently under-promising and over-delivering. That discipline raises the base-rate probability of continued outperformance at the next earnings report.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Average quarterly EPS surprise remains above 15% over the next four consecutive quarters.
CounterThe outsized surprise magnitude may reflect chronically low street estimates in a thinly covered name rather than genuine operational outperformance; once analysts calibrate upward, the streak could break without any change in the underlying business.
Revenue and earnings are expanding at approximately 46% year-over-year — placing the company as the growth leader within its industry peer group — and at a PEG ratio of 0.18, that pace is not reflected in the current multiple, leaving meaningful room for re-rating if growth is sustained.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Year-over-year earnings growth remains above 20% for the next two consecutive reporting periods.
CounterA PEG of 0.18 implies the market anticipates sharp deceleration; if growth reverts toward sector-average rates, even a modest compression in the multiple will more than offset the earnings expansion.
Despite strong reported earnings, free cash flow is approximately 1% of net income — a significant quality red flag signaling that reported profits are not translating into actual cash. Until conversion normalizes, the reported profit growth is unreliable as a source of reinvestment capacity or shareholder returns.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow rises above 40% of net income within the next four quarters.
CounterIf the depressed conversion ratio reflects a temporary working-capital build tied to the current high-growth phase, it may self-correct as the business scales — making this a cyclical concern rather than a structural one.
Short interest stands at approximately 24% of the float, a meaningful overhang that can amplify downside pressure if sentiment deteriorates; the unfavorable risk/reward geometry — about 7% upside against roughly 14% downside at spot — leaves almost no cushion for error.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 12% of float over the next two quarters.
CounterElevated short interest is a dual-edged signal: it also represents latent buying power for a squeeze should the earnings beat streak continue and shorts are forced to cover into a rising tape.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.9 |
| ROA | 4.3 |
| Gross margin | 7.7 |
| Op margin | 6.1 |
| Net margin | 5.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.1 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 1% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 46% YoY
Momentum
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.2 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 5.3 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 27)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 9.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 38%
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,846,665 (0.092% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.8 |
| quality rank | 3.5 |
| growth rank | 9.4 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
8.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.8 |
| 52w position | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 9.6 |
| implied vol | 0.9 |
| beta | 9.2 |
| debt equity | 6.8 |
- ▸High short interest: 26%
- ▸High IV: 75%
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.57
Upside
+19.9%
Downside
12.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.0B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 3.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Technical at 8.6, and Value at 8.0; the weakest are Momentum at 3.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.8, and Insider at 5.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.57 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Outperformance Streak
Trip ifAverage EPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Strong Growth Trajectory
Trip ifYear-over-year earnings growth falls below 15% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Fcf Conversion Red Flag
Trip ifFree cash flow rises above 40% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Short Interest Overhang
Trip ifShort interest falls below 10% of float.