Value
8.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.7 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.0x
- ▸Attractively valued
ETD · Why this verdict
Why Ethan Allen Interiors (ETD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ethan Allen is attractively valued with a 3-of-4 earnings beat streak and a strong 7/9 Piotroski F-Score, but revenue is declining 8%, the price is 8.6% above the analyst target, and insiders are net sellers.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Ethan Allen has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 9.6% and the next report due 2026-11-09. Last 4 quarters | EPS meets or beats estimates at the 2026-11-09 report, extending the run to 4 of 5 quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe company missed 5 of the 8 reports before this run, with misses as large as -25.0%, so the recent beats may reflect lowered estimates rather than stronger demand. | ||
Revenue is declining 8%, with quarterly revenue of $146.8M versus $160.4M a year earlier, and growth scores 0.9/10, last among peers. Growth breakdown | Revenue decline narrows from -8% toward flat over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe next-quarter revenue estimate of $135.6M is below the latest quarter, so analysts expect the decline to continue. | ||
At $20.45 the price is 8.6% above the $18.70 analyst target, so there is no analyst-implied upside remaining. Analyst target | Earnings improve enough that analysts raise targets above the $20.45 price within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe forward P/E of 16.0x already prices in a recovery that revenue trends do not yet show, and a pullback toward the $18.70 target is the simpler outcome. | ||
Ethan Allen has a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, conservative debt levels, and an attractive valuation scoring 8.0/10. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score stays at or above 7 and the value score stays above 7.0. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings quality shows a warning at 80% FCF to net income, and the dividend is flagged as a yield trap with safety scoring 4.0/10. | ||
Insiders sold $597,805 and bought $24,610 in the last 90 days (net selling of 0.111% of market cap), and short interest is 11%. Insider | Net insider selling stops and short interest stays at or below 11%. | →Stable |
| CounterSelling is minor relative to market cap, but 5 sales against 1 purchase alongside a recent officer change report suggests insiders are not adding. | ||
Ethan Allen has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 9.6% and the next report due 2026-11-09.
↓DeterioratingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats estimates at the 2026-11-09 report, extending the run to 4 of 5 quarters.
CounterThe company missed 5 of the 8 reports before this run, with misses as large as -25.0%, so the recent beats may reflect lowered estimates rather than stronger demand.
Revenue is declining 8%, with quarterly revenue of $146.8M versus $160.4M a year earlier, and growth scores 0.9/10, last among peers.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue decline narrows from -8% toward flat over 12 months.
CounterThe next-quarter revenue estimate of $135.6M is below the latest quarter, so analysts expect the decline to continue.
At $20.45 the price is 8.6% above the $18.70 analyst target, so there is no analyst-implied upside remaining.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Earnings improve enough that analysts raise targets above the $20.45 price within 12 months.
CounterThe forward P/E of 16.0x already prices in a recovery that revenue trends do not yet show, and a pullback toward the $18.70 target is the simpler outcome.
Ethan Allen has a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, conservative debt levels, and an attractive valuation scoring 8.0/10.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score stays at or above 7 and the value score stays above 7.0.
CounterEarnings quality shows a warning at 80% FCF to net income, and the dividend is flagged as a yield trap with safety scoring 4.0/10.
Insiders sold $597,805 and bought $24,610 in the last 90 days (net selling of 0.111% of market cap), and short interest is 11%.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Net insider selling stops and short interest stays at or below 11%.
CounterSelling is minor relative to market cap, but 5 sales against 1 purchase alongside a recent officer change report suggests insiders are not adding.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.8 |
| ROA | 2.6 |
| Gross margin | 8.2 |
| Op margin | 4.2 |
| Net margin | 3.4 |
| Current ratio | 7.2 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 80% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
0.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.4 |
| EPS growth | 1.3 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -8%
Momentum
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 7.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 1.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.70 (n=1)
Insider
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 3.0 |
| holder change | 3.9 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $573,195 (0.112% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.4 |
| quality rank | 4.8 |
| growth rank | 0.8 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.5 |
| support resistance | 0.9 |
| 52w position | 7.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.9 |
| days to cover | 4.8 |
| volatility | 5.0 |
| put call | 2.1 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.8 |
| debt equity | 9.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.68
- ▸High IV: 132%
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.3 |
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:7.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.28
Upside
-11.4%
Downside
9.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 56, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 2.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.28 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Momentum at 7.3, and Catalyst at 5.5; the weakest are Growth at 0.9, Technical at 3.1, and Insider at 3.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.28 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Declining Revenue Weak Growth
Trip ifRevenue decline exceeds 12% YoY from current -8%.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice rises above $24 from $20.45 without analyst targets rising, or falls more than 5.4% to the $19.35 stop.
- P4Solid Quality Attractive Value
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 of 9 from current 7.
- P5Insider Selling And Short Interest
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds 0.3% of market cap over 90 days from current 0.111%.