Value
5.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.3 |
| P/S | 4.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.4 |
| PEG | 4.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.77
ESQ · Why this verdict
Why Esquire Financial Holdings (ESQ) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Esquire Financial is a fast-growing bank with 66% growth and 32% margins, but the price is 3.0% above the analyst target, insiders sold $3.8 million, and short interest is 12%.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Margins are about 32% and the Piotroski F-Score is 7 out of 9, though the business has no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Net margin stays above 28% over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWith no moat, competitors could erode margins, and a quality score of 5.4 triggered a risk-off penalty. | ||
Esquire is growing about 66% year over year and is an industry growth leader among regional banks. Growth breakdown | Year-over-year growth stays above 20% over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA 66% growth rate is unlikely to persist at scale, and the PEG of 1.78 shows the price already assumes strong growth. | ||
Esquire beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including a 12.2% surprise in the latest quarter. Earnings | The company beats consensus EPS in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe April miss of 7.7% was larger than the average surprise of 2.2%, so results are uneven. | ||
The $124.96 price is above the $121.27 analyst target, about 3.0% over it, against 9.1% downside to the stop. Warnings | Analyst targets are raised toward the price over the next two quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterLight analyst coverage means targets update slowly, and strong growth may drive upgrades. | ||
Insiders sold $3,790,337, about 0.249% of market cap, and 12% of shares are sold short. Insider breakdown | Insider selling stops and short interest drops below 8%. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider sales may be planned diversification and a 0.249% share of market cap is small. | ||
Margins are about 32% and the Piotroski F-Score is 7 out of 9, though the business has no competitive moat.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin stays above 28% over the next 12 months.
CounterWith no moat, competitors could erode margins, and a quality score of 5.4 triggered a risk-off penalty.
Esquire is growing about 66% year over year and is an industry growth leader among regional banks.
↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Year-over-year growth stays above 20% over the next 12 months.
CounterA 66% growth rate is unlikely to persist at scale, and the PEG of 1.78 shows the price already assumes strong growth.
Esquire beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including a 12.2% surprise in the latest quarter.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus EPS in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe April miss of 7.7% was larger than the average surprise of 2.2%, so results are uneven.
The $124.96 price is above the $121.27 analyst target, about 3.0% over it, against 9.1% downside to the stop.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised toward the price over the next two quarters.
CounterLight analyst coverage means targets update slowly, and strong growth may drive upgrades.
Insiders sold $3,790,337, about 0.249% of market cap, and 12% of shares are sold short.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling stops and short interest drops below 8%.
CounterInsider sales may be planned diversification and a 0.249% share of market cap is small.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.5 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 32%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 66% YoY
Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 8.1 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $3,790,337 (0.249% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.3 |
| quality rank | 4.9 |
| growth rank | 9.6 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.2 |
| support resistance | 4.5 |
| 52w position | 8.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.2 |
| days to cover | 3.4 |
| volatility | 4.3 |
| beta | 10.0 |
Catalyst
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.6 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:79d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- INSIDER:0.25%=MODERATE
Reward-to-Risk
-0.28
Upside
-2.5%
Downside
8.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.5B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Peer rank at 5.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Momentum at 6.1, and Sentiment at 6.1; the weakest are Peer rank at 5.0, Insider at 5.0, and Technical at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.28 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth Profile
Trip ifYear-over-year growth falls below 15% from the current 66%.
- P2High Margins Solid Health
Trip ifNet margin falls below 25% from the current 32%.
- P3Earnings Beat Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice exceeds the analyst target by more than 10% from the current 3.0%.
- P5Insider Selling And Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest rises above 18% from the current 12%.