Value
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.8x
ESPR · Why this verdict
Why Esperion Therapeutics (ESPR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 8.0 |
| Gross margin | 7.6 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.6 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -12% of revenue
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.3/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.3 |
- ▸Strong growth: 23% YoY
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.7 |
| OBV | 4.1 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.1 |
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $240,364 (0.030% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.0 |
| quality rank | 3.4 |
| growth rank | 7.4 |
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.2 |
| support resistance | 2.5 |
| 52w position | 5.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.9 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 10.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 8.7 |
| beta | 6.7 |
Catalyst
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Estimates down -35.2% (30d)
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:31d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.95
Upside
-14.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 8.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.95 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 8.3, and Value at 6.0; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.8, Technical at 3.6, and Insider at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.95 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.