Value
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 6.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 31.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.13
EROK · Why this verdict
Why EagleRock Land (EROK) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
EagleRock screens as an industry growth leader trading at a low PEG ratio, but weak momentum and an unfavorable risk/reward skew mean the setup does not yet clear the engine's buy gates.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
EagleRock is flagged as an industry growth leader among Oil & Gas Equipment & Services peers, with a peer growth rank of 9.7 out of 10 and a growth dimension score of 10/10. Peer-rank breakdown | The peer growth rank should remain above 8.0 out of 10 over the next four quarterly refreshes as the company continues to outpace sector peers. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth-dimension confidence is only 0.33, and no explicit revenue or earnings growth commentary is recorded, so the peer-rank signal may not be well substantiated. | ||
The stock trades at a PEG ratio of just 0.13 alongside a forward P/E of 31.4x, signaling the market may not yet be pricing in the company's growth trajectory. Valuation breakdown | The PEG ratio should stay below 0.5 as long as earnings growth continues to outpace the multiple. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA PEG this low paired with a rich 31.4x forward P/E could instead reflect an earnings-growth estimate that is unreliable or due for a downward revision, rather than genuine mispricing. | ||
The engine's momentum gate has failed outright, with the momentum score at 3.6 sitting below the 4.5 minimum required to support a buy signal, consistent with the negative price momentum flagged as a key risk. Warnings | The momentum score should remain below the 4.5 buy-gate threshold as long as the negative momentum flagged in the bear case persists. | →Stable |
| CounterRSI and Bollinger readings sit mid-range rather than deeply oversold, suggesting momentum weakness could reverse quickly once volume flows turn positive. | ||
The risk/reward setup is unfavorably skewed, with an asymmetry ratio of 0.86 — downside risk of 11.1% modestly exceeding the 9.6% upside to target — failing the engine's 1.5 asymmetry gate. Reward-to-risk math | The asymmetry ratio should remain below 1.5, keeping the recommended position size minimal as long as downside risk outweighs upside potential. | →Stable |
| CounterThe take-profit target relies on a single analyst-target-derived estimate, which may understate true upside if further price-target increases follow the 26% analyst upside cited in the sentiment notes. | ||
EagleRock is flagged as an industry growth leader among Oil & Gas Equipment & Services peers, with a peer growth rank of 9.7 out of 10 and a growth dimension score of 10/10.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- The peer growth rank should remain above 8.0 out of 10 over the next four quarterly refreshes as the company continues to outpace sector peers.
CounterGrowth-dimension confidence is only 0.33, and no explicit revenue or earnings growth commentary is recorded, so the peer-rank signal may not be well substantiated.
The stock trades at a PEG ratio of just 0.13 alongside a forward P/E of 31.4x, signaling the market may not yet be pricing in the company's growth trajectory.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio should stay below 0.5 as long as earnings growth continues to outpace the multiple.
CounterA PEG this low paired with a rich 31.4x forward P/E could instead reflect an earnings-growth estimate that is unreliable or due for a downward revision, rather than genuine mispricing.
The engine's momentum gate has failed outright, with the momentum score at 3.6 sitting below the 4.5 minimum required to support a buy signal, consistent with the negative price momentum flagged as a key risk.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The momentum score should remain below the 4.5 buy-gate threshold as long as the negative momentum flagged in the bear case persists.
CounterRSI and Bollinger readings sit mid-range rather than deeply oversold, suggesting momentum weakness could reverse quickly once volume flows turn positive.
The risk/reward setup is unfavorably skewed, with an asymmetry ratio of 0.86 — downside risk of 11.1% modestly exceeding the 9.6% upside to target — failing the engine's 1.5 asymmetry gate.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should remain below 1.5, keeping the recommended position size minimal as long as downside risk outweighs upside potential.
CounterThe take-profit target relies on a single analyst-target-derived estimate, which may understate true upside if further price-target increases follow the 26% analyst upside cited in the sentiment notes.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.4/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 7.9 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.4 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 2.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 3.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.4 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 27%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.4 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 9.7 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.6 |
| support resistance | 9.0 |
| 52w position | 6.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 50%How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.01
Upside
+10.8%
Downside
10.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 2.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Technical at 8.0, and Sentiment at 6.5; the weakest are Momentum at 2.1, Peer rank at 3.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.01 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Industry Growth Leadership
Trip ifPeer growth rank falls below 5.0 (from the current 9.7) for two consecutive quarterly refreshes.
- P2Cheap Growth Adjusted Valuation
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.0 from the current 0.13.
- P3Momentum Gate Failure
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 (from the current 3.6), clearing the engine's buy gate.
- P4Unfavorable Risk Reward Skew
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.5 (from the current 0.86), with upside to target meaningfully exceeding downside to stop.