Value
5.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.8 |
| PEG | 4.2 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.8x
- ▸PEG: 2.30
EQPT · Why this verdict
Why EquipmentShare.com (EQPT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing at 38% year-over-year, ranking the company as an industry growth leader, and the two reported earnings quarters have both beaten estimates by wide margins — 51% and 74% above consensus respectively — suggesting the business is scaling faster than analysts anticipated. Growth | Revenue growth remains above 25% year-over-year for the next 2 quarters, confirming the trajectory is durable and not a one-quarter anomaly. | →Stable |
| CounterWith only two quarters of earnings history available, the beat streak is too short to confirm a pattern of conservative guidance; a single miss could sharply reset expectations given the lack of a longer track record. | ||
Free cash flow is deeply negative — consuming resources at more than 3,200% of net income — flagging a severe disconnect between reported profitability and actual cash generation, which is a critical risk for a company at this stage of scaling. Quality | Free cash flow improves to less than -500% of net income within 4 quarters, indicating the cash burn is narrowing materially toward a sustainable range. | →Stable |
| CounterExtremely negative free cash flow in a high-growth equipment rental company can reflect front-loaded capital expenditures that will generate future cash flows — though the available data does not specify whether the burn is investment-driven or structural. | ||
Analysts project upside of 85% from the current price to the consensus target, reflecting strong institutional conviction in the growth trajectory relative to the current valuation and leaving substantial room for the stock to appreciate if execution continues. Sentiment | The stock closes above $30 within 12 months, recapturing at least half of the analyst-implied upside from current levels. | →Stable |
| CounterAn 85% consensus upside on a below-quality-floor business in a volatile industrial sector often reflects analyst optimism that has not been stress-tested against a deterioration in growth or a tightening of financing conditions. | ||
The options market is pricing in substantial downside risk — with a put-to-call ratio of 5.83 and implied volatility of 170% — indicating that sophisticated market participants are positioning heavily for a sharp decline in the stock price. Risk | The put-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 and implied volatility compresses below 100% over the next 3 months, signaling reduced institutional hedging demand. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put-to-call ratios in illiquid names can reflect a thin options market rather than informed bearish conviction; the signal may partly reflect limited contract availability rather than directional positioning. | ||
Revenue is growing at 38% year-over-year, ranking the company as an industry growth leader, and the two reported earnings quarters have both beaten estimates by wide margins — 51% and 74% above consensus respectively — suggesting the business is scaling faster than analysts anticipated.
→StableGrowth
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 25% year-over-year for the next 2 quarters, confirming the trajectory is durable and not a one-quarter anomaly.
CounterWith only two quarters of earnings history available, the beat streak is too short to confirm a pattern of conservative guidance; a single miss could sharply reset expectations given the lack of a longer track record.
Free cash flow is deeply negative — consuming resources at more than 3,200% of net income — flagging a severe disconnect between reported profitability and actual cash generation, which is a critical risk for a company at this stage of scaling.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- Free cash flow improves to less than -500% of net income within 4 quarters, indicating the cash burn is narrowing materially toward a sustainable range.
CounterExtremely negative free cash flow in a high-growth equipment rental company can reflect front-loaded capital expenditures that will generate future cash flows — though the available data does not specify whether the burn is investment-driven or structural.
Analysts project upside of 85% from the current price to the consensus target, reflecting strong institutional conviction in the growth trajectory relative to the current valuation and leaving substantial room for the stock to appreciate if execution continues.
→StableSentiment
- Expectation
- The stock closes above $30 within 12 months, recapturing at least half of the analyst-implied upside from current levels.
CounterAn 85% consensus upside on a below-quality-floor business in a volatile industrial sector often reflects analyst optimism that has not been stress-tested against a deterioration in growth or a tightening of financing conditions.
The options market is pricing in substantial downside risk — with a put-to-call ratio of 5.83 and implied volatility of 170% — indicating that sophisticated market participants are positioning heavily for a sharp decline in the stock price.
→StableRisk
- Expectation
- The put-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 and implied volatility compresses below 100% over the next 3 months, signaling reduced institutional hedging demand.
CounterElevated put-to-call ratios in illiquid names can reflect a thin options market rather than informed bearish conviction; the signal may partly reflect limited contract availability rather than directional positioning.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
EquipmentShare is growing revenue at 38% year-over-year and has beaten earnings estimates in both reported quarters with an average surprise exceeding 60%, but the business burns cash at a rate that dwarfs net income by more than 30 times, quality metrics fall below minimum thresholds, and the options market is pricing in substantial downside — making this a high-conviction growth story with severe execution and financial risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.6 |
| ROA | 2.2 |
| Gross margin | 3.2 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.2 |
| Current ratio | 8.4 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -3257% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 38% YoY
Momentum
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 3.6 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 94%
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $741,271 (0.015% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.9 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 8.8 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.2 |
| support resistance | 8.7 |
| 52w position | 0.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.4 |
| days to cover | 2.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 2.3 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 126%
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:4.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:40d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
4.61
Upside
+69.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -46% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.6, and Catalyst at 7.2; the weakest are Momentum at 2.3, Quality at 3.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.61 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Revenue Growth Rate
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Catastrophic Cash Burn
Trip ifFree cash flow improves above -500% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Analyst Consensus Upside Potential
Trip ifConsensus analyst price target falls below $25, representing downward revisions of more than 25% from current levels.
- P4Bearish Options Market Positioning
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 for 2 consecutive months.