Value
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.5 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.5 |
| PEG | 3.1 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.4x
- ▸PEG: 4.01
- ▸Attractively valued
ELPC · Why this verdict
Why Companhia Paranaense de Energia (ELPC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The stock offers roughly 23% upside to consensus price targets with a favorable risk/reward ratio of approximately 3.7-to-1, all engine gates have been cleared, and two consecutive earnings beats average a 24% positive surprise — but below-average business quality and the absence of a competitive moat limit confidence that this upside will be captured without volatility.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 16.4x with roughly 23% upside to the analyst consensus price target, and the risk/reward ratio of approximately 3.7-to-1 in favor of the long side has cleared the minimum asymmetry threshold — a setup that offers a meaningful margin of safety relative to the downside. Price targets | Stock price progresses toward the $14.39 analyst target, with upside to target remaining above 10% for the next 2 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock is classified as range-bound with RSI near the midpoint and no identified directional catalyst — a favorable risk/reward ratio can persist for extended periods without resolving if there is no near-term event to close the gap between current price and target. | ||
The company has beaten analyst consensus estimates in each of the two most recently reported quarters, with an average positive surprise of roughly 24%, suggesting that the business is performing ahead of expectations or that consensus has been set conservatively. Earnings | The beat pattern extends to at least 4 consecutive quarters with average EPS surprise remaining above 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterWith only two quarters of data available, the beat pattern is too short to confirm a structural tendency to outperform — a miss in the next quarter would eliminate the pattern entirely and could prompt negative sentiment revision. | ||
The stock trades above the 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume, a constructive MACD reading, and all gates — including momentum and asymmetry — have been cleared, indicating the technical setup is consistent with the fundamental thesis. V9 | Stock price remains above the 200-day moving average for at least 3 consecutive months with sustained volume accumulation. | →Stable |
| CounterThe setup is range-bound rather than trending, and RSI near the midpoint indicates no directional conviction — the stock may continue oscillating within its range without a clear breakout even if fundamentals hold. | ||
The business carries a below-average quality profile with no identified competitive moat and a dividend yield flagged as potentially unsupported by underlying earnings — limiting confidence that the current valuation reflects durable franchise value rather than a cyclical earnings peak. Quality breakdown | If quality improves, the overall quality dimension score would rise above 6.0 for 2 consecutive reporting periods, from the current 4.7. | →Stable |
| CounterThe company ranks as an industry growth leader and the value score screens attractively at 6.9 out of 10, suggesting the stock may be cheap enough relative to peers to compensate for the absence of a formal moat — in regulated utilities, competitive advantage is often embedded in regulatory structure rather than conventional business characteristics. | ||
The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 16.4x with roughly 23% upside to the analyst consensus price target, and the risk/reward ratio of approximately 3.7-to-1 in favor of the long side has cleared the minimum asymmetry threshold — a setup that offers a meaningful margin of safety relative to the downside.
↑ImprovingPrice targets
- Expectation
- Stock price progresses toward the $14.39 analyst target, with upside to target remaining above 10% for the next 2 quarters.
CounterThe stock is classified as range-bound with RSI near the midpoint and no identified directional catalyst — a favorable risk/reward ratio can persist for extended periods without resolving if there is no near-term event to close the gap between current price and target.
The company has beaten analyst consensus estimates in each of the two most recently reported quarters, with an average positive surprise of roughly 24%, suggesting that the business is performing ahead of expectations or that consensus has been set conservatively.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat pattern extends to at least 4 consecutive quarters with average EPS surprise remaining above 10%.
CounterWith only two quarters of data available, the beat pattern is too short to confirm a structural tendency to outperform — a miss in the next quarter would eliminate the pattern entirely and could prompt negative sentiment revision.
The stock trades above the 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume, a constructive MACD reading, and all gates — including momentum and asymmetry — have been cleared, indicating the technical setup is consistent with the fundamental thesis.
→StableV9
- Expectation
- Stock price remains above the 200-day moving average for at least 3 consecutive months with sustained volume accumulation.
CounterThe setup is range-bound rather than trending, and RSI near the midpoint indicates no directional conviction — the stock may continue oscillating within its range without a clear breakout even if fundamentals hold.
The business carries a below-average quality profile with no identified competitive moat and a dividend yield flagged as potentially unsupported by underlying earnings — limiting confidence that the current valuation reflects durable franchise value rather than a cyclical earnings peak.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- If quality improves, the overall quality dimension score would rise above 6.0 for 2 consecutive reporting periods, from the current 4.7.
CounterThe company ranks as an industry growth leader and the value score screens attractively at 6.9 out of 10, suggesting the stock may be cheap enough relative to peers to compensate for the absence of a formal moat — in regulated utilities, competitive advantage is often embedded in regulatory structure rather than conventional business characteristics.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.6 |
| ROA | 3.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 8.1 |
| Net margin | 5.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.1 |
| FCF quality | 7.8 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
5.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.5 |
| EPS growth | 2.8 |
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 48%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $95,459 (0.001% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
7.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.9 |
| quality rank | 3.9 |
| growth rank | 9.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.6 |
| support resistance | 7.2 |
| 52w position | 6.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 9.8 |
| volatility | 5.7 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 5.0 |
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
- ▸Earnings in 12 days
- ▸Dividend: 4.6%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:4.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:12d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
4.78
Upside
+25.9%
Downside
5.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: ASYMMETRY:4.8>=1.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 8.1; weakest: Momentum at 3.6. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.1, Technical at 7.5, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 3.6, Quality at 4.7, and Growth at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.78 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Compelling Price Upside Asymmetry
Trip ifUpside to analyst price target compresses below 10% for 2 consecutive months.
- P2Earnings Execution Beats
Trip ifAverage EPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Momentum And Technical Confirmation
Trip ifStock price falls below the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P4Quality And Moat Deficit
Trip ifOverall quality dimension score rises above 6.0 for 2 consecutive reporting periods, from the current 4.7.