Value
9.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 4.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
ECC · Why this verdict
Why Eagle Point Credit Company (ECC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ECC combines a high-asymmetry recovery setup (87% upside, improving MACD) and an attractive forward valuation with a still-confirmed price downtrend and a failing Rule of 40 growth-profitability read.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The fund screens as attractively valued on a forward basis (P/E 4.9x, PEG 0.03), supporting the bull case alongside a strong 8/9 Piotroski F-Score. Bull case | The value score should remain in the top decile and the Piotroski F-Score should hold at 7 or above. | →Stable |
| CounterA very low forward P/E for a credit-focused closed-end fund can reflect NAV/discount dynamics tied to portfolio credit risk rather than a genuine earnings-based bargain. | ||
The engine flags a very high asymmetry ratio (9.61) with 87% upside to price target, occurring within a RECOVERY setup where MACD is improving despite a prior death cross. Reward-to-risk math | The asymmetry ratio should remain elevated (above 3.0) as price recovers toward the target over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock remains below its 200-day moving average in a confirmed downtrend (MA slope -5.5%/30d), so the recovery read could reverse before the large modeled upside materializes. | ||
The stock remains in a confirmed downtrend, trading below its 200-day moving average with a negative MA slope of -5.5%/30d. Bear case | Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average and the MA slope should turn positive within the next two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe setup is explicitly classified as RECOVERY with improving MACD, suggesting the downtrend may already be in its final stages. | ||
The fund fails the Rule of 40 threshold (score of 14 vs. the 40 pass bar), reflecting a weaker combined growth-plus-profitability profile even as FCF stays positive. Quality breakdown | The Rule of 40 score should rise above 25 as revenue trends or profitability improve. | →Stable |
| CounterRule of 40 is designed for growth/SaaS-style operating companies, and applying it to a credit-focused income fund may produce a structurally low score regardless of actual portfolio health. | ||
The fund screens as attractively valued on a forward basis (P/E 4.9x, PEG 0.03), supporting the bull case alongside a strong 8/9 Piotroski F-Score.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The value score should remain in the top decile and the Piotroski F-Score should hold at 7 or above.
CounterA very low forward P/E for a credit-focused closed-end fund can reflect NAV/discount dynamics tied to portfolio credit risk rather than a genuine earnings-based bargain.
The engine flags a very high asymmetry ratio (9.61) with 87% upside to price target, occurring within a RECOVERY setup where MACD is improving despite a prior death cross.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should remain elevated (above 3.0) as price recovers toward the target over the next 12 months.
CounterThe stock remains below its 200-day moving average in a confirmed downtrend (MA slope -5.5%/30d), so the recovery read could reverse before the large modeled upside materializes.
The stock remains in a confirmed downtrend, trading below its 200-day moving average with a negative MA slope of -5.5%/30d.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average and the MA slope should turn positive within the next two quarters.
CounterThe setup is explicitly classified as RECOVERY with improving MACD, suggesting the downtrend may already be in its final stages.
The fund fails the Rule of 40 threshold (score of 14 vs. the 40 pass bar), reflecting a weaker combined growth-plus-profitability profile even as FCF stays positive.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Rule of 40 score should rise above 25 as revenue trends or profitability improve.
CounterRule of 40 is designed for growth/SaaS-style operating companies, and applying it to a credit-focused income fund may produce a structurally low score regardless of actual portfolio health.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 4.6 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.1 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 33%, FCF yield 13.0%)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: 14 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -19%
Momentum
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 129%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.7 |
| quality rank | 0.1 |
| growth rank | 0.8 |
Technical
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.2 |
| support resistance | 3.7 |
| 52w position | 2.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
9.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 6.9 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.4 |
Catalyst
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.3 |
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:14.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
14.06
Upside
+94.7%
Downside
6.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:14.1>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 9.2; weakest: Momentum at 2.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 9.1, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 2.5, Catalyst at 2.6, and Technical at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 14.06 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Asymmetry Recovery Setup
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below 1.5 from the current 9.61.
- P2Attractive Forward Valuation
Trip ifValue score falls below 5.0 from the current 9.2.
- P3Confirmed Price Downtrend
Trip ifMA slope stays below -3%/30d for 2 additional consecutive quarters.
- P4Weak Rule Of 40 Profile
Trip ifRule of 40 score stays below 20 for 2 consecutive quarters.