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ECCEagle Point Credit Company Inc.Hold6.0·$3.57-1.11%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

ECC combines a high-asymmetry recovery setup (87% upside, improving MACD) and an attractive forward valuation with a still-confirmed price downtrend and a failing Rule of 40 growth-profitability read.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Forward ValuationStable
  • High Asymmetry Recovery SetupStable
  • Confirmed Price DowntrendStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Eagle Point Credit Company Inc. (ECC) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Inst Constrain edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $3.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Eagle Point Credit Company is a closed ended fund launched and managed by Eagle Point Credit Management LLC. It invests in fixed income markets of the United States. The fund invests equity and junior debt tranches of collateralized loan obligations consisting primarily of below... Read more

$3.57+102.4% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#58 of 239 Asset Management
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield13.40%
IncomeYield33.24%(5y avg 18.14%)Payout928.91%at-risk
Stop $3.45Target $7.22(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 20.5:1
Analyst target$8.50+138.1%4 analysts
$7.22our TP
$3.57price
$8.50mean
$20

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $3.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 19, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Positive insider activity
Analyst upside: 102%
Risks
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)4.5
Mkt Cap$472M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn-83.9%
ROE-18.1%
Rev Growth-19.1%
Beta0.36
Dividend33.24%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Macd
3.8
Capitulation risk (RSI 19, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
1.3
Dividend Safety
4.0
Erm
5.0
Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesMomentum 2.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 20.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Speculative
RSI
19 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $3.56Resistance $3.86

Price Targets

$3
$7
A.Upside+102.4%
A.R:R20.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ECC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $3.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 19, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $7.22 (+102.2%), stop $3.45 (−3.5%), A.R:R 20.5:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ECC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $7.22 (+102.4% upside). Target $7.22 (+102.2%), stop $3.45 (−3.5%), A.R:R 20.5:1. Stop-loss: $3.45.

What are the risks of investing in ECC?

Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is ECC overvalued or undervalued?

Eagle Point Credit Company Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 4.5). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ECC?

10 analysts cover ECC with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $9.

What does Eagle Point Credit Company Inc. do?Eagle Point Credit Company is a closed ended fund launched and managed by Eagle Point Credit Management LLC. It invests...

Eagle Point Credit Company is a closed ended fund launched and managed by Eagle Point Credit Management LLC. It invests in fixed income markets of the United States. The fund invests equity and junior debt tranches of collateralized loan obligations consisting primarily of below investment grade U.S. senior secured loans. Eagle Point Credit Company was formed on March 24, 2014 and is domiciled in the United States.

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