Value
6.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.1 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.8 |
| PEG | 9.7 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.55
DXPE · Why this verdict
Why DXP Enterprises (DXPE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The company offers a growth profile at a PEG of 0.55 with strong financial health scores, but alternating earnings misses and beats, leverage near 1.8x debt-to-equity, and a current price only 1% below the technical resistance target leave the risk/reward at 0.14-to-1 — insufficient to justify commitment at this entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has alternated between beats and misses across its last four reported quarters — including a 14.4% earnings shortfall in the autumn 2025 period — leaving the near-term trajectory difficult to forecast with confidence. Earnings | EPS surprise turns consistently positive, with upside beats in at least three of the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo of the four most recent quarters were beats, including a 6.9% upside surprise, indicating the business can outperform when operating conditions allow. | ||
Financial leverage near 1.8x debt-to-equity limits the cushion available to absorb an earnings shortfall and pressures the path to incremental investment without balance-sheet strain. Bear case | Debt-to-equity ratio declines below 1.2x over the next four reported quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicates the balance sheet scores highly across solvency and profitability metrics beyond the leverage ratio alone. | ||
A PEG ratio of 0.55 suggests the market has not fully rewarded the company's growth profile relative to its forward earnings multiple of 22.4x, leaving room for a valuation re-rating if delivery improves. Bull case | The PEG ratio remains below 1.0 while earnings growth is sustained for at least two consecutive forward periods. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo earnings misses in the last four quarters make the growth denominator of the PEG ratio unreliable as a forward signal, and implied volatility at 81% reflects meaningful market uncertainty around the trajectory. | ||
With the stock only 1% below its technical resistance target and a risk/reward ratio of 0.14-to-1, the current setup offers minimal compensation for the downside risk embedded in the position. Price targets | The stock consolidates to create at least 10% upside to the resistance level, restoring a viable entry geometry. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterVolume accumulation continues and the price holds above the 200-day moving average, suggesting momentum may sustain the current level and even push through resistance. | ||
The company has alternated between beats and misses across its last four reported quarters — including a 14.4% earnings shortfall in the autumn 2025 period — leaving the near-term trajectory difficult to forecast with confidence.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise turns consistently positive, with upside beats in at least three of the next four reported quarters.
CounterTwo of the four most recent quarters were beats, including a 6.9% upside surprise, indicating the business can outperform when operating conditions allow.
Financial leverage near 1.8x debt-to-equity limits the cushion available to absorb an earnings shortfall and pressures the path to incremental investment without balance-sheet strain.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity ratio declines below 1.2x over the next four reported quarters.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicates the balance sheet scores highly across solvency and profitability metrics beyond the leverage ratio alone.
A PEG ratio of 0.55 suggests the market has not fully rewarded the company's growth profile relative to its forward earnings multiple of 22.4x, leaving room for a valuation re-rating if delivery improves.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio remains below 1.0 while earnings growth is sustained for at least two consecutive forward periods.
CounterTwo earnings misses in the last four quarters make the growth denominator of the PEG ratio unreliable as a forward signal, and implied volatility at 81% reflects meaningful market uncertainty around the trajectory.
With the stock only 1% below its technical resistance target and a risk/reward ratio of 0.14-to-1, the current setup offers minimal compensation for the downside risk embedded in the position.
Tripped→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- The stock consolidates to create at least 10% upside to the resistance level, restoring a viable entry geometry.
CounterVolume accumulation continues and the price holds above the 200-day moving average, suggesting momentum may sustain the current level and even push through resistance.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.1 |
| ROA | 4.9 |
| Gross margin | 2.3 |
| Op margin | 3.3 |
| Net margin | 2.1 |
| Current ratio | 9.9 |
| FCF quality | 4.3 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 55% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 9.8 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,801,109 (0.108% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.9 |
| quality rank | 5.1 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 2.8 |
| 52w position | 8.3 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 1.2 |
| beta | 7.2 |
| debt equity | 3.5 |
Catalyst
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.6 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:16d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.79
Upside
-19.8%
Downside
11.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.8=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.79 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.5, Momentum at 7.0, and Value at 6.9; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.7, Peer rank at 3.9, and Sentiment at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.79 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Inconsistent Earnings Delivery
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% for 3 consecutive quarters.
- P2Leverage Constrains Flexibility
Trip ifDebt-to-equity falls below 1.2x for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P3Growth At Low Peg Valuation
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.0 from current 0.55.
- P4Exhausted Near Term UpsideTripped
Trip ifUpside to technical resistance exceeds 10% from the prevailing price.