Value
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
DHT · Why this verdict
Why DHT Holdings (DHT) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business carries a wide economic moat alongside net margins of approximately 50% and a return on equity of 29%, placing it among the best-in-class operators in its peer group on both profitability and capital efficiency. Quality breakdown | Net margin stays above 35% and return on equity stays above 20% for the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterReturn on equity above 29% can be materially flattered by a buyback-shrunk equity base rather than genuine compounding; the underlying return on capital is a more reliable measure of competitive advantage, and the data does not provide it separately. | ||
Revenue grew roughly 78% year-over-year in the most recent period—well above the peer group—reflecting strong demand conditions that the company has been positioned to capitalize on. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 20% year-over-year for at least 2 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst earnings estimates are already trending lower, indicating the market expects the current growth rate to decelerate; if volume or rate conditions soften, revenue could slow sharply given the cyclical nature of the underlying business. | ||
Despite strong reported earnings, free cash flow is negative—at roughly negative 50% of net income—meaning the company is not converting its accounting profits into spendable cash, which raises a question about the sustainability and quality of reported earnings. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow to net income ratio turns positive above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterNegative free cash flow relative to net income can reflect heavy capital asset investment that will generate cash in future periods; a capital-intensive expansion phase does not necessarily invalidate earnings quality if deployment returns exceed the cost of capital. | ||
Analyst earnings estimates are trending downward, suggesting the investment community expects the exceptional profitability and growth metrics of recent periods to be difficult to sustain, which can weigh on the multiple the market is willing to award. Bear case | Analyst forward EPS estimates increase more than 5% from current levels over the next 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo of the last four quarters were in-line rather than beats, which may be driving near-term estimate caution; a reversion to clear beats could prompt upward revisions that reset the narrative and support multiple expansion. | ||
The business carries a wide economic moat alongside net margins of approximately 50% and a return on equity of 29%, placing it among the best-in-class operators in its peer group on both profitability and capital efficiency.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin stays above 35% and return on equity stays above 20% for the next 4 quarters.
CounterReturn on equity above 29% can be materially flattered by a buyback-shrunk equity base rather than genuine compounding; the underlying return on capital is a more reliable measure of competitive advantage, and the data does not provide it separately.
Revenue grew roughly 78% year-over-year in the most recent period—well above the peer group—reflecting strong demand conditions that the company has been positioned to capitalize on.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 20% year-over-year for at least 2 consecutive quarters.
CounterAnalyst earnings estimates are already trending lower, indicating the market expects the current growth rate to decelerate; if volume or rate conditions soften, revenue could slow sharply given the cyclical nature of the underlying business.
Despite strong reported earnings, free cash flow is negative—at roughly negative 50% of net income—meaning the company is not converting its accounting profits into spendable cash, which raises a question about the sustainability and quality of reported earnings.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow to net income ratio turns positive above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
CounterNegative free cash flow relative to net income can reflect heavy capital asset investment that will generate cash in future periods; a capital-intensive expansion phase does not necessarily invalidate earnings quality if deployment returns exceed the cost of capital.
Analyst earnings estimates are trending downward, suggesting the investment community expects the exceptional profitability and growth metrics of recent periods to be difficult to sustain, which can weigh on the multiple the market is willing to award.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst forward EPS estimates increase more than 5% from current levels over the next 2 quarters.
CounterTwo of the last four quarters were in-line rather than beats, which may be driving near-term estimate caution; a reversion to clear beats could prompt upward revisions that reset the narrative and support multiple expansion.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
DHT Holdings is a high-quality franchise with a wide economic moat, net margins of approximately 50%, return on equity of 29%, and 78% year-over-year revenue growth, but the stock has moved past its take-profit target and free cash flow is actually negative—running at roughly negative 50% of net income—flagging an earnings quality concern that is compounded by analyst estimates already trending lower.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.6 |
| ROA | 8.8 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 8.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 29%
- ▸Strong margins: 50%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -50% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 78% YoY
Momentum
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
| erm sentiment | 4.1 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.4 |
| quality rank | 8.7 |
| growth rank | 8.0 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.0 |
| support resistance | 7.4 |
| 52w position | 7.0 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.4 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.6 |
| debt equity | 8.3 |
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 2.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
- ▸Dividend: 1490.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Fundamentals strong but target reached (2.3% upside).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33|V8:TARGET_REACHED|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.21
Upside
+2.3%
Downside
10.8%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (8.1) with weak momentum (2.4)
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.4<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.21.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.1, and Quality at 8.1; the weakest are Momentum at 2.4, Insider at 5.0, and Peer rank at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.21 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat And Strong Margins
Trip ifNet margin falls below 35% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Exceptional Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Negative Free Cash Flow
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income ratio turns positive above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Estimates Trending Lower
Trip ifAnalyst forward EPS estimates increase more than 5% from current levels for 2 consecutive quarters.