Value
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.1 |
| P/S | 5.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.0 |
| PEG | 5.6 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 25.2x
- ▸PEG: 1.34
DHR · Why this verdict
Why Danaher (DHR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Danaher is a high-quality life-sciences business with a perfect four-quarter beat streak and strong growth, but at $230.25 it trades within 1.6% of the analyst target, leaving little near-term upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Danaher shows strong margins of 17% and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, giving quality a score of 6.7. Quality breakdown | Margins hold above 15% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or higher. | →Stable |
| CounterROE and ROA components are only 2.7, so capital returns are modest and cash conversion scores 7.5, not exceptional. | ||
Danaher beat estimates in 4 of 4 quarters with an average surprise of 5.9%, including a 10.0% beat in October 2026. Avg surprise pct | EPS keeps beating consensus at the January 2027 report. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBeats of 2% to 10% are routine for a well-covered large cap, so the streak may already be priced in. | ||
The analyst target of $233.91 sits only 1.6% above the $230.25 price, while downside is 6.6%, giving risk/reward of 0.24. Upside pct | Upside widens above 10% only if targets are raised after the next earnings report. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong beat streak could prompt target upgrades, and sentiment scores 7.0, well above neutral. | ||
Quarterly revenue rose from $6.05B (Sep 2025) to $6.55B (Sep 2026), about 8% YoY, supporting a growth score of 7.1. Revenue quarters | Revenue grows at least 5% YoY over the next four quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterForward P/E of 24.7x with PEG of 1.31 already prices in growth, leaving little margin for slowdown. | ||
Insiders sold $21.5M across 7 transactions, 0.013% of market cap, while institutions are accumulating. Insider transaction read | Insider selling stays below 0.05% of market cap. | →Stable |
| CounterSelling is small in relation to market cap, so it may reflect routine diversification and not a negative view. | ||
Danaher shows strong margins of 17% and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, giving quality a score of 6.7.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins hold above 15% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or higher.
CounterROE and ROA components are only 2.7, so capital returns are modest and cash conversion scores 7.5, not exceptional.
Danaher beat estimates in 4 of 4 quarters with an average surprise of 5.9%, including a 10.0% beat in October 2026.
↓DeterioratingAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS keeps beating consensus at the January 2027 report.
CounterBeats of 2% to 10% are routine for a well-covered large cap, so the streak may already be priced in.
The analyst target of $233.91 sits only 1.6% above the $230.25 price, while downside is 6.6%, giving risk/reward of 0.24.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Upside widens above 10% only if targets are raised after the next earnings report.
CounterA strong beat streak could prompt target upgrades, and sentiment scores 7.0, well above neutral.
Quarterly revenue rose from $6.05B (Sep 2025) to $6.55B (Sep 2026), about 8% YoY, supporting a growth score of 7.1.
↓DeterioratingRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Revenue grows at least 5% YoY over the next four quarters.
CounterForward P/E of 24.7x with PEG of 1.31 already prices in growth, leaving little margin for slowdown.
Insiders sold $21.5M across 7 transactions, 0.013% of market cap, while institutions are accumulating.
→StableInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- Insider selling stays below 0.05% of market cap.
CounterSelling is small in relation to market cap, so it may reflect routine diversification and not a negative view.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.7 |
| ROA | 2.7 |
| Gross margin | 7.9 |
| Op margin | 8.8 |
| Net margin | 8.5 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 7.5 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 17%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.6 |
| EPS growth | 9.6 |
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.5 |
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.5 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $26,114,250 (0.016% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.8 |
| quality rank | 6.0 |
| growth rank | 4.7 |
Technical
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.5 |
| support resistance | 3.0 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 9.1 |
| volatility | 5.6 |
| put call | 0.9 |
| implied vol | 6.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.2 |
| debt equity | 7.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.87
- ▸Above max pain $175
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.5 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.7% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:76d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
- NEWS_SOFT:LEADERSHIP_CHANGE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.12
Upside
+0.8%
Downside
6.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 7.1; weakest: Value at 4.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.1, Quality at 6.7, and Sentiment at 6.5; the weakest are Value at 4.3, Peer rank at 4.8, and Momentum at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.12 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Strong Quality Profile
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 out of 9 from the current 9.
- P3Limited Upside To Target
Trip ifPrice exceeds the analyst target by more than 10% with no target increase.
- P4Recovering Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 3% YoY from the current ~8%.
- P5Insider Selling Institutional Buying
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 0.1% of market cap over 90 days from the current 0.013%.