Value
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.7 |
| P/S | 6.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.6 |
| PEG | 6.4 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.14
DHR · Why this verdict
Why Danaher (DHR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Danaher's unbroken four-quarter earnings beat streak and 124% free-cash-flow conversion attest to strong fundamental quality; the stock is just below its analyst-derived target with approximately 20% upside and a 3.25-to-1 risk/reward, though the confirmed long-term downtrend below the 200-day moving average and an RSI at overbought levels warrant caution about near-term entry timing.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Danaher has beaten earnings estimates in each of the past four consecutive quarters, with positive surprises of 6.45%, 1.99%, 9.78%, and 9.49% reading from most recent to oldest; a perfect four-quarter beat record signals that consensus estimates have been consistently and persistently set below actual results. This pattern of under-promising and over-delivering supports confidence that forward estimates may also be conservative. Earnings | Earnings beats continue, with at least three of the next four quarters recording positive EPS surprises; consensus estimates are revised upward following continued outperformance. | →Stable |
| CounterThe beat margins are modest—the most recent was 6.45% and the prior quarter only 1.99%—meaning any single guidance shortfall or execution miss could easily break the streak; moreover, recent analyst activity detected in the news may prompt updated, more accurate estimates that close the under-modeled gap and reduce future surprise potential. | ||
Free cash flow is 124% of net income, meaning the company converts more than all of its stated net earnings to cash, a level that indicates high-quality earnings with minimal accruals; the Piotroski F-Score is a perfect 9 out of 9, the highest attainable indication of financial soundness across profitability, leverage, and liquidity measures. Quality breakdown | FCF-to-net-income conversion remains above 100% and Piotroski F-Score is maintained at 8 or above over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA FCF-to-net-income ratio above 100% can reflect favorable working capital timing or non-recurring items that reverse in subsequent periods; growth is characterized as weak in the bear case, and if the operational outlook does not improve, conversion may decline from its currently exceptional level. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the moving average itself declining at -1.8% over 30 days—a configuration the momentum notes explicitly characterize as a confirmed downtrend; simultaneously, RSI at 74 is overbought, and the notes classify the current bounce as a bear rally rather than a durable momentum reversal. Momentum breakdown | Price breaks sustainably above the 200-day moving average and the 30-day MA slope turns positive, confirming the downtrend has reversed; RSI moderates to a neutral range without a sharp price selloff. | →Stable |
| CounterVolume accumulation (rising on-balance volume) and a momentum reading that has cleared the minimum threshold for a technical entry are signs of genuine near-term buying interest; the death cross configuration is noted as recovering, suggesting the downtrend may already be in the process of reversing rather than deepening. | ||
With approximately 20% of upside remaining to the $219.85 analyst-derived target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 3.25-to-1, the current price offers a materially favorable setup; analyst consensus reflects 33% upside and the asymmetry bar is met, making this a geometry worth monitoring for a better technical entry. Price targets | Price advances toward the $219.85 target over the next 12 months; the reward-to-risk ratio remains above 1.5-to-1 as the position appreciates. | →Stable |
| CounterAn elevated put/call ratio of 1.42 and the confirmed downtrend below the 200-day moving average represent meaningful near-term obstacles; a favorable reward/risk geometry does not prevent further price deterioration if the technical picture worsens before the fundamental thesis plays out, and the overbought RSI at 74 raises the probability of a near-term pullback. | ||
Danaher has beaten earnings estimates in each of the past four consecutive quarters, with positive surprises of 6.45%, 1.99%, 9.78%, and 9.49% reading from most recent to oldest; a perfect four-quarter beat record signals that consensus estimates have been consistently and persistently set below actual results. This pattern of under-promising and over-delivering supports confidence that forward estimates may also be conservative.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beats continue, with at least three of the next four quarters recording positive EPS surprises; consensus estimates are revised upward following continued outperformance.
CounterThe beat margins are modest—the most recent was 6.45% and the prior quarter only 1.99%—meaning any single guidance shortfall or execution miss could easily break the streak; moreover, recent analyst activity detected in the news may prompt updated, more accurate estimates that close the under-modeled gap and reduce future surprise potential.
Free cash flow is 124% of net income, meaning the company converts more than all of its stated net earnings to cash, a level that indicates high-quality earnings with minimal accruals; the Piotroski F-Score is a perfect 9 out of 9, the highest attainable indication of financial soundness across profitability, leverage, and liquidity measures.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF-to-net-income conversion remains above 100% and Piotroski F-Score is maintained at 8 or above over the next four quarters.
CounterA FCF-to-net-income ratio above 100% can reflect favorable working capital timing or non-recurring items that reverse in subsequent periods; growth is characterized as weak in the bear case, and if the operational outlook does not improve, conversion may decline from its currently exceptional level.
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the moving average itself declining at -1.8% over 30 days—a configuration the momentum notes explicitly characterize as a confirmed downtrend; simultaneously, RSI at 74 is overbought, and the notes classify the current bounce as a bear rally rather than a durable momentum reversal.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price breaks sustainably above the 200-day moving average and the 30-day MA slope turns positive, confirming the downtrend has reversed; RSI moderates to a neutral range without a sharp price selloff.
CounterVolume accumulation (rising on-balance volume) and a momentum reading that has cleared the minimum threshold for a technical entry are signs of genuine near-term buying interest; the death cross configuration is noted as recovering, suggesting the downtrend may already be in the process of reversing rather than deepening.
With approximately 20% of upside remaining to the $219.85 analyst-derived target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 3.25-to-1, the current price offers a materially favorable setup; analyst consensus reflects 33% upside and the asymmetry bar is met, making this a geometry worth monitoring for a better technical entry.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price advances toward the $219.85 target over the next 12 months; the reward-to-risk ratio remains above 1.5-to-1 as the position appreciates.
CounterAn elevated put/call ratio of 1.42 and the confirmed downtrend below the 200-day moving average represent meaningful near-term obstacles; a favorable reward/risk geometry does not prevent further price deterioration if the technical picture worsens before the fundamental thesis plays out, and the overbought RSI at 74 raises the probability of a near-term pullback.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.4 |
| ROA | 2.8 |
| Gross margin | 7.8 |
| Op margin | 9.2 |
| Net margin | 7.4 |
| Current ratio | 6.6 |
| FCF quality | 9.1 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 124% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
3.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.4 |
| EPS growth | 4.0 |
Momentum
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.7 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 5.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 28%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $237,207 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.2 |
| quality rank | 5.7 |
| growth rank | 0.8 |
Technical
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.2 |
| support resistance | 0.3 |
| 52w position | 5.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 9.0 |
| volatility | 5.5 |
| put call | 4.1 |
| implied vol | 5.9 |
| beta | 8.0 |
| debt equity | 8.5 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 89.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.0>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
1.69
Upside
+15.5%
Downside
9.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 63
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 27d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.69 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 8.0, Momentum at 7.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.0; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.7, Technical at 2.8, and Growth at 3.7. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.69 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Danaher has beaten earnings estimates in each of the past four consecutive quarters, with positive surprises of 6.45%, 1.99%, 9.78%, and 9.49% reading from most recent to oldest; a perfect four-quarter beat record signals that consensus estimates have been consistently and persistently set below actual results. This pattern of under-promising and over-delivering supports confidence that forward estimates may also be conservative.
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Free cash flow is 124% of net income, meaning the company converts more than all of its stated net earnings to cash, a level that indicates high-quality earnings with minimal accruals; the Piotroski F-Score is a perfect 9 out of 9, the highest attainable indication of financial soundness across profitability, leverage, and liquidity measures.
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income ratio falls below 80% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the moving average itself declining at -1.8% over 30 days—a configuration the momentum notes explicitly characterize as a confirmed downtrend; simultaneously, RSI at 74 is overbought, and the notes classify the current bounce as a bear rally rather than a durable momentum reversal.
Trip ifPrice breaks above the 200-day moving average for 2 consecutive weeks.
- P4With approximately 20% of upside remaining to the $219.85 analyst-derived target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 3.25-to-1, the current price offers a materially favorable setup; analyst consensus reflects 33% upside and the asymmetry bar is met, making this a geometry worth monitoring for a better technical entry.
Trip ifUpside to price target compresses below 5% from the current 19.8%.