Value
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.2 |
| P/S | 6.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.0 |
| PEG | 5.9 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.5x
- ▸PEG: 1.27
DHR · Why this verdict
Why Danaher (DHR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Danaher's unbroken four-quarter earnings beat streak and 124% free-cash-flow conversion attest to strong fundamental quality; the stock is just below its analyst-derived target with approximately 20% upside and a 3.25-to-1 risk/reward, though the confirmed long-term downtrend below the 200-day moving average and an RSI at overbought levels warrant caution about near-term entry timing.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Danaher has beaten earnings estimates in each of the past four consecutive quarters, with positive surprises of 6.45%, 1.99%, 9.78%, and 9.49% reading from most recent to oldest; a perfect four-quarter beat record signals that consensus estimates have been consistently and persistently set below actual results. This pattern of under-promising and over-delivering supports confidence that forward estimates may also be conservative. Earnings | Earnings beats continue, with at least three of the next four quarters recording positive EPS surprises; consensus estimates are revised upward following continued outperformance. | — |
| CounterThe beat margins are modest—the most recent was 6.45% and the prior quarter only 1.99%—meaning any single guidance shortfall or execution miss could easily break the streak; moreover, recent analyst activity detected in the news may prompt updated, more accurate estimates that close the under-modeled gap and reduce future surprise potential. | ||
Free cash flow is 124% of net income, meaning the company converts more than all of its stated net earnings to cash, a level that indicates high-quality earnings with minimal accruals; the Piotroski F-Score is a perfect 9 out of 9, the highest attainable indication of financial soundness across profitability, leverage, and liquidity measures. Quality breakdown | FCF-to-net-income conversion remains above 100% and Piotroski F-Score is maintained at 8 or above over the next four quarters. | — |
| CounterA FCF-to-net-income ratio above 100% can reflect favorable working capital timing or non-recurring items that reverse in subsequent periods; growth is characterized as weak in the bear case, and if the operational outlook does not improve, conversion may decline from its currently exceptional level. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the moving average itself declining at -1.8% over 30 days—a configuration the momentum notes explicitly characterize as a confirmed downtrend; simultaneously, RSI at 74 is overbought, and the notes classify the current bounce as a bear rally rather than a durable momentum reversal. Momentum breakdown | Price breaks sustainably above the 200-day moving average and the 30-day MA slope turns positive, confirming the downtrend has reversed; RSI moderates to a neutral range without a sharp price selloff. | — |
| CounterVolume accumulation (rising on-balance volume) and a momentum reading that has cleared the minimum threshold for a technical entry are signs of genuine near-term buying interest; the death cross configuration is noted as recovering, suggesting the downtrend may already be in the process of reversing rather than deepening. | ||
With approximately 20% of upside remaining to the $219.85 analyst-derived target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 3.25-to-1, the current price offers a materially favorable setup; analyst consensus reflects 33% upside and the asymmetry bar is met, making this a geometry worth monitoring for a better technical entry. Price targets | Price advances toward the $219.85 target over the next 12 months; the reward-to-risk ratio remains above 1.5-to-1 as the position appreciates. | — |
| CounterAn elevated put/call ratio of 1.42 and the confirmed downtrend below the 200-day moving average represent meaningful near-term obstacles; a favorable reward/risk geometry does not prevent further price deterioration if the technical picture worsens before the fundamental thesis plays out, and the overbought RSI at 74 raises the probability of a near-term pullback. | ||
Danaher has beaten earnings estimates in each of the past four consecutive quarters, with positive surprises of 6.45%, 1.99%, 9.78%, and 9.49% reading from most recent to oldest; a perfect four-quarter beat record signals that consensus estimates have been consistently and persistently set below actual results. This pattern of under-promising and over-delivering supports confidence that forward estimates may also be conservative.
—Earnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beats continue, with at least three of the next four quarters recording positive EPS surprises; consensus estimates are revised upward following continued outperformance.
CounterThe beat margins are modest—the most recent was 6.45% and the prior quarter only 1.99%—meaning any single guidance shortfall or execution miss could easily break the streak; moreover, recent analyst activity detected in the news may prompt updated, more accurate estimates that close the under-modeled gap and reduce future surprise potential.
Free cash flow is 124% of net income, meaning the company converts more than all of its stated net earnings to cash, a level that indicates high-quality earnings with minimal accruals; the Piotroski F-Score is a perfect 9 out of 9, the highest attainable indication of financial soundness across profitability, leverage, and liquidity measures.
—Quality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF-to-net-income conversion remains above 100% and Piotroski F-Score is maintained at 8 or above over the next four quarters.
CounterA FCF-to-net-income ratio above 100% can reflect favorable working capital timing or non-recurring items that reverse in subsequent periods; growth is characterized as weak in the bear case, and if the operational outlook does not improve, conversion may decline from its currently exceptional level.
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the moving average itself declining at -1.8% over 30 days—a configuration the momentum notes explicitly characterize as a confirmed downtrend; simultaneously, RSI at 74 is overbought, and the notes classify the current bounce as a bear rally rather than a durable momentum reversal.
—Momentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price breaks sustainably above the 200-day moving average and the 30-day MA slope turns positive, confirming the downtrend has reversed; RSI moderates to a neutral range without a sharp price selloff.
CounterVolume accumulation (rising on-balance volume) and a momentum reading that has cleared the minimum threshold for a technical entry are signs of genuine near-term buying interest; the death cross configuration is noted as recovering, suggesting the downtrend may already be in the process of reversing rather than deepening.
With approximately 20% of upside remaining to the $219.85 analyst-derived target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 3.25-to-1, the current price offers a materially favorable setup; analyst consensus reflects 33% upside and the asymmetry bar is met, making this a geometry worth monitoring for a better technical entry.
—Price targets
- Expectation
- Price advances toward the $219.85 target over the next 12 months; the reward-to-risk ratio remains above 1.5-to-1 as the position appreciates.
CounterAn elevated put/call ratio of 1.42 and the confirmed downtrend below the 200-day moving average represent meaningful near-term obstacles; a favorable reward/risk geometry does not prevent further price deterioration if the technical picture worsens before the fundamental thesis plays out, and the overbought RSI at 74 raises the probability of a near-term pullback.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.4 |
| ROA | 2.8 |
| Gross margin | 7.8 |
| Op margin | 9.2 |
| Net margin | 7.4 |
| Current ratio | 6.6 |
| FCF quality | 9.1 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 124% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
3.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.4 |
| EPS growth | 4.0 |
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.5 |
| Volume | 3.5 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 71)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.9 |
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
7.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $237,207 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.1 |
| quality rank | 6.5 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.2 |
| support resistance | 1.2 |
| 52w position | 6.5 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.1 |
| days to cover | 8.3 |
| volatility | 5.3 |
| put call | 9.9 |
| implied vol | 5.2 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 8.1 |
| debt equity | 8.5 |
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 8 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.8% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.6>=5.0 recovering
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:8d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
0.75
Upside
+9.5%
Downside
12.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 8d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5. Top dim: Sentiment at 7.7; weakest: Growth at 3.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.7, and Insider at 7.2; the weakest are Growth at 3.7, Technical at 4.0, and Peer rank at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.75 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Four Quarter Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Exceptional Fcf Conversion Quality
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income ratio falls below 80% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Confirmed Long Term Downtrend
Trip ifPrice breaks above the 200-day moving average for 2 consecutive weeks.
- P4Favorable Risk Reward Geometry
Trip ifUpside to price target compresses below 5% from the current 19.8%.