Value
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.0 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.5 |
| PEG | 5.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.4x
- ▸PEG: 1.50
DG · Why this verdict
Why Dollar General (DG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.3 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 2.2 |
| Op margin | 2.4 |
| Net margin | 1.8 |
| Current ratio | 4.5 |
| FCF quality | 9.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 120% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.4 |
| EPS growth | 4.5 |
Momentum
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.5 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.9 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 23%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.2 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.4 |
| support resistance | 5.3 |
| 52w position | 3.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 1.7 |
| put call | 4.5 |
| implied vol | 5.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 3.4 |
| news risk | 4.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $74
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 221.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:79d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.2<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.23
Upside
+10.6%
Downside
8.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 7.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5, ASYMMETRY:1.2<1.5@spot, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.23 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.2, Value at 7.0, and Sentiment at 6.5; the weakest are Growth at 4.0, Technical at 4.1, and Peer rank at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.23 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.