Value
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.8 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
DBD · Why this verdict
Why Diebold Nixdorf (DBD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Four consecutive earnings beats averaging 31.5% above estimates, a PEG ratio of 0.09, and free cash flow conversion of 301% of net income create a compelling quality-value combination — but the stock sits just 1.1% below the analyst price target with unfavorable risk/reward, making the near-term entry unattractive despite the underlying fundamentals.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a PEG ratio of 0.09 and a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 12.2 times, the stock screens as deeply undervalued relative to its earnings growth rate, suggesting the market is discounting the earnings trajectory more aggressively than fundamentals warrant. Valuation breakdown | Multiple expands from 12.2 times forward earnings toward 18 times as the earnings beat streak is recognized, delivering price appreciation without requiring incremental earnings growth. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe absence of a discernible competitive moat limits the rate at which any valuation discount resolves; low multiples for technology companies with concentrated customer and geographic exposure often reflect structural quality discounts rather than temporary mispricing. | ||
With 73.5% of revenue from the banking segment and 76.0% from international operations, any deterioration in banking technology demand or in a key geographic market would disproportionately impair overall performance with limited offset from other segments. Bear case | Revenue from segments outside the banking vertical grows to represent more than 35% of total quarterly revenue within 12 months, meaningfully reducing single-segment dependency. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterDeep entrenchment in banking technology creates durable customer relationships and high switching costs in financial infrastructure — the concentration may reflect a source of customer retention rather than pure geographic or product risk. | ||
Four consecutive quarters of beating earnings estimates, with an average quarterly surprise of 31.5% above consensus, reflects broad-based operational outperformance rather than a single anomalous quarter. Earnings | The beat streak extends to five consecutive quarters at next earnings (approximately 50 days out) with a positive surprise. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter's 8.65% beat represents a notable step down from the prior quarter's 66.67% surprise, and consensus estimates may already embed elevated expectations following the streak — leaving less room to surprise going forward. | ||
Free cash flow conversion of 301% of net income means the business generates substantially more cash than reported earnings suggest — a signal of high-quality underlying cash economics that reported profit metrics alone understate. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 150% of net income for the next four quarters, confirming the cash generation is structural rather than a one-time working capital event. | →Stable |
| CounterThe absence of a competitive moat creates uncertainty about whether the elevated cash conversion reflects durable cost advantages or a favorable near-term working capital position that could normalize as the business cycle shifts. | ||
At a PEG ratio of 0.09 and a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 12.2 times, the stock screens as deeply undervalued relative to its earnings growth rate, suggesting the market is discounting the earnings trajectory more aggressively than fundamentals warrant.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Multiple expands from 12.2 times forward earnings toward 18 times as the earnings beat streak is recognized, delivering price appreciation without requiring incremental earnings growth.
CounterThe absence of a discernible competitive moat limits the rate at which any valuation discount resolves; low multiples for technology companies with concentrated customer and geographic exposure often reflect structural quality discounts rather than temporary mispricing.
With 73.5% of revenue from the banking segment and 76.0% from international operations, any deterioration in banking technology demand or in a key geographic market would disproportionately impair overall performance with limited offset from other segments.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue from segments outside the banking vertical grows to represent more than 35% of total quarterly revenue within 12 months, meaningfully reducing single-segment dependency.
CounterDeep entrenchment in banking technology creates durable customer relationships and high switching costs in financial infrastructure — the concentration may reflect a source of customer retention rather than pure geographic or product risk.
Four consecutive quarters of beating earnings estimates, with an average quarterly surprise of 31.5% above consensus, reflects broad-based operational outperformance rather than a single anomalous quarter.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to five consecutive quarters at next earnings (approximately 50 days out) with a positive surprise.
CounterThe most recent quarter's 8.65% beat represents a notable step down from the prior quarter's 66.67% surprise, and consensus estimates may already embed elevated expectations following the streak — leaving less room to surprise going forward.
Free cash flow conversion of 301% of net income means the business generates substantially more cash than reported earnings suggest — a signal of high-quality underlying cash economics that reported profit metrics alone understate.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 150% of net income for the next four quarters, confirming the cash generation is structural rather than a one-time working capital event.
CounterThe absence of a competitive moat creates uncertainty about whether the elevated cash conversion reflects durable cost advantages or a favorable near-term working capital position that could normalize as the business cycle shifts.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.6 |
| ROA | 4.0 |
| Gross margin | 1.2 |
| Op margin | 3.6 |
| Net margin | 1.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 319% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 6.2 |
| MA position | 1.5 |
| Volume | 5.3 |
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 47%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.6 |
| quality rank | 3.6 |
| growth rank | 2.0 |
Technical
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.9 |
| support resistance | 7.0 |
| 52w position | 2.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.6 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 2.7 |
| implied vol | 5.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.0 |
| debt equity | 4.6 |
- ▸High short interest: 19%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.60
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:99d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.23
Upside
+24.6%
Downside
11.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.23 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.4, Catalyst at 7.5, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.2, Momentum at 3.3, and Peer rank at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.23 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, ending the beat streak.
- P2Deep Value Low Peg Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 8x as earnings estimates decline faster than the stock price.
- P3Exceptional Free Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Banking Geographic Concentration
Trip ifBanking segment revenue falls below 60% of total quarterly revenue for 2 consecutive quarters.