Value
6.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.1 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.5 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
CYH · Why this verdict
Why Community Health Systems (CYH) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score3.9/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Community Health Systems trades above its analyst target with falling revenue, volatile earnings and a heavily bearish options market, which leaves no margin of safety.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At $2.92 the stock is already above the $2.69 analyst target, with target-implied upside of -7.8% against 7.9% downside to the stop. Estimated upside | Analysts raise targets above the share price over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe shares show a recovery setup with RSI near 60 and rising on-balance volume, so analyst targets may simply be lagging. | ||
Revenue is declining 10%, with quarterly revenue falling from $3.13B in June 2025 to $2.825B in June 2026. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue stabilizes near $2.8B and starts to grow within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAttractive P/E versus peers suggests the market already prices in the shrinkage. | ||
EPS results are erratic: 1 beat and 2 misses in the last 4 quarters, with surprises of -83.38% and -461.4% in the two most recent reports. Last 4 quarters | Earnings surprises turn consistently positive across the next four reports. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe October 2025 and February 2026 beats of 546.71% and 100% show that results can swing sharply upward. | ||
The put/call ratio is 8.00 and implied volatility is 153%, showing options traders are positioned heavily for downside. Risk breakdown | Put/call ratio normalizes as earnings stabilize over the next two quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPut buying may be hedging by holders of a leveraged hospital operator rather than an outright bearish view. | ||
At $2.92 the stock is already above the $2.69 analyst target, with target-implied upside of -7.8% against 7.9% downside to the stop.
↑ImprovingEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above the share price over 12 months.
CounterThe shares show a recovery setup with RSI near 60 and rising on-balance volume, so analyst targets may simply be lagging.
Revenue is declining 10%, with quarterly revenue falling from $3.13B in June 2025 to $2.825B in June 2026.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stabilizes near $2.8B and starts to grow within 12 months.
CounterAttractive P/E versus peers suggests the market already prices in the shrinkage.
EPS results are erratic: 1 beat and 2 misses in the last 4 quarters, with surprises of -83.38% and -461.4% in the two most recent reports.
↑ImprovingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- Earnings surprises turn consistently positive across the next four reports.
CounterThe October 2025 and February 2026 beats of 546.71% and 100% show that results can swing sharply upward.
The put/call ratio is 8.00 and implied volatility is 153%, showing options traders are positioned heavily for downside.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio normalizes as earnings stabilize over the next two quarters.
CounterPut buying may be hedging by holders of a leveraged hospital operator rather than an outright bearish view.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 2.8 |
| Gross margin | 4.3 |
| Op margin | 2.3 |
| Net margin | 0.2 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 564% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -11%
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 2.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 5.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news sentiment | 0.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.2 |
- ▸Negative news sentiment (-1.00)
Insider
5.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 5.4 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $118,400 (0.035% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.1 |
| quality rank | 2.4 |
| growth rank | 0.3 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.4 |
| support resistance | 7.6 |
| 52w position | 0.3 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.3 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 3.7 |
| news risk | 3.5 |
- ▸High IV: 198%
- ▸Above max pain $1
Catalyst
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $336M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:104d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.0<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.03
Upside
+0.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -48% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.7<4.5 outcome against Value at 6.4 and asymmetric R:R of 0.03.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.4, Insider at 5.6, and Technical at 5.3; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Momentum at 2.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.2. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.03 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $3.50 from the current $2.69.
- P2Declining Revenue Base
Trip ifQuarterly revenue rises above $3.0B from the current $2.825B.
- P3Erratic Earnings Surprises
Trip ifEPS surprise stays above 0% for 3 consecutive quarters.
- P4Bearish Options Positioning
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.5 from the current 8.00.