Value
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.7 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.09
- ▸Attractively valued
CX · Why this verdict
Why Cemex, S.A.B. de C.V. Sponsored (CX) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Shares are just below the near-term technical resistance target with only about 2% headroom, and the risk/reward ratio of 0.27-to-1 is well below the minimum acceptable level — the setup lacks the asymmetry needed to support a new entry at current prices. Price targets | If this constraint resolves, the analyst consensus price target rises above $15.00, providing more than 15% upside from current levels and restoring an acceptable risk/reward geometry. | →Stable |
| CounterThe near-term resistance is a single price level; a positive earnings catalyst or sector re-rating could push the stock through that ceiling quickly, rendering the tight near-term geometry moot for existing holders with a longer holding period. | ||
At a forward earnings multiple of 14.5x with a minimal earnings growth multiple, shares screen as attractively valued relative to a strong growth profile — providing a valuation cushion and meaningful room for multiple expansion if earnings delivery continues. Bull case | If this thesis holds, the forward multiple expands toward 18x as earnings growth is recognized by the market over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA low earnings growth multiple can reflect cyclical earnings exposure — if building materials demand contracts and growth expectations moderate, the cheap multiple may stay permanently compressed rather than expanding toward fair value. | ||
Free cash flow stands at roughly 237% of net income, and the Piotroski financial health score is 8 out of 9 — both well above average — indicating that reported earnings are backed by real cash generation and that the balance sheet is in good fundamental condition. Quality breakdown | If this thesis holds, the FCF-to-net-income ratio stays above 150% over the next four quarters, supporting balance sheet flexibility. | →Stable |
| CounterA FCF-to-earnings ratio well above 100% sometimes reflects favorable working capital timing or deferred taxes that will reverse — compressing cash generation in subsequent periods without signaling any operational weakness. | ||
On-balance volume is rising and the stock trades above the 200-day moving average, both indicating that buyers are absorbing available supply and that institutional accumulation is underway — a constructive technical backdrop for existing holders. Momentum breakdown | If this accumulation continues, price advances more than 10% above the 200-day moving average over the next two quarters with on-balance volume remaining in an uptrend. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock sits in a range-bound pattern with RSI at a neutral 47 and Bollinger midband positioning, suggesting the accumulation has not yet translated into a clear directional breakout and may still resolve to the downside. | ||
A single quarter in the last four produced an earnings miss of roughly 218% below estimates, dragging the trailing four-quarter average surprise to approximately negative 36% despite a subsequent strong beat — the range of outcomes suggests that earnings predictability and estimation consistency remain challenges. Earnings | If execution stabilizes, EPS surprise stays above 10% for 3 consecutive quarters, demonstrating restored earnings consistency. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter delivered a 50% positive surprise — the strongest result of the four periods — indicating the extreme prior miss may have been an isolated event, and the subsequent quarter has already demonstrated recovery. | ||
Shares are just below the near-term technical resistance target with only about 2% headroom, and the risk/reward ratio of 0.27-to-1 is well below the minimum acceptable level — the setup lacks the asymmetry needed to support a new entry at current prices.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- If this constraint resolves, the analyst consensus price target rises above $15.00, providing more than 15% upside from current levels and restoring an acceptable risk/reward geometry.
CounterThe near-term resistance is a single price level; a positive earnings catalyst or sector re-rating could push the stock through that ceiling quickly, rendering the tight near-term geometry moot for existing holders with a longer holding period.
At a forward earnings multiple of 14.5x with a minimal earnings growth multiple, shares screen as attractively valued relative to a strong growth profile — providing a valuation cushion and meaningful room for multiple expansion if earnings delivery continues.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- If this thesis holds, the forward multiple expands toward 18x as earnings growth is recognized by the market over the next four quarters.
CounterA low earnings growth multiple can reflect cyclical earnings exposure — if building materials demand contracts and growth expectations moderate, the cheap multiple may stay permanently compressed rather than expanding toward fair value.
Free cash flow stands at roughly 237% of net income, and the Piotroski financial health score is 8 out of 9 — both well above average — indicating that reported earnings are backed by real cash generation and that the balance sheet is in good fundamental condition.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- If this thesis holds, the FCF-to-net-income ratio stays above 150% over the next four quarters, supporting balance sheet flexibility.
CounterA FCF-to-earnings ratio well above 100% sometimes reflects favorable working capital timing or deferred taxes that will reverse — compressing cash generation in subsequent periods without signaling any operational weakness.
On-balance volume is rising and the stock trades above the 200-day moving average, both indicating that buyers are absorbing available supply and that institutional accumulation is underway — a constructive technical backdrop for existing holders.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- If this accumulation continues, price advances more than 10% above the 200-day moving average over the next two quarters with on-balance volume remaining in an uptrend.
CounterThe stock sits in a range-bound pattern with RSI at a neutral 47 and Bollinger midband positioning, suggesting the accumulation has not yet translated into a clear directional breakout and may still resolve to the downside.
A single quarter in the last four produced an earnings miss of roughly 218% below estimates, dragging the trailing four-quarter average surprise to approximately negative 36% despite a subsequent strong beat — the range of outcomes suggests that earnings predictability and estimation consistency remain challenges.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- If execution stabilizes, EPS surprise stays above 10% for 3 consecutive quarters, demonstrating restored earnings consistency.
CounterThe most recent quarter delivered a 50% positive surprise — the strongest result of the four periods — indicating the extreme prior miss may have been an isolated event, and the subsequent quarter has already demonstrated recovery.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Cemex screens attractively valued at approximately 14.5x forward earnings with excellent free cash flow conversion and rising volume accumulation confirming institutional buying, but shares have essentially reached the near-term technical ceiling with roughly 2% headroom and an unfavorable risk/reward ratio — and an extreme earnings miss in one of the past four quarters tempers confidence in execution consistency.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.3 |
| ROA | 2.9 |
| Gross margin | 2.5 |
| Op margin | 4.2 |
| Net margin | 1.4 |
| Current ratio | 3.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 237% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 5.8 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $425,600 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.7 |
| quality rank | 1.8 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.7 |
| support resistance | 6.2 |
| 52w position | 8.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.2 |
| beta | 8.0 |
| debt equity | 8.1 |
- ▸High IV: 67%
Catalyst
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Dividend: 80.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:19d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.89
Upside
+5.5%
Downside
6.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 7.7; weakest: Catalyst at 4.2. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.7, Value at 7.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.0; the weakest are Catalyst at 4.2, Peer rank at 4.4, and Quality at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.89 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Growth Profile
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 20x for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Strong Fcf Piotroski Foundation
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income ratio falls below 100% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Institutional Volume Accumulation
Trip ifOn-balance volume turns declining for 8 consecutive weeks and price falls below the 200-day moving average.
- P4Technical Target Exhaustion
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $15.00, restoring more than 15% upside from current price.
- P5Volatile Earnings History
Trip ifEPS surprise stays above 10% for 3 consecutive quarters.