Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 6.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.12
- ▸Attractively valued
CUK · Why this verdict
Why Carnival (CUK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.3 |
| ROA | 3.7 |
| Gross margin | 7.2 |
| Op margin | 3.9 |
| Net margin | 5.7 |
| Current ratio | 1.2 |
| FCF quality | 5.3 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 28%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 70% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.0 |
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 6.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 27%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $314,266 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.9 |
| quality rank | 4.9 |
| growth rank | 2.0 |
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.4 |
| support resistance | 5.4 |
| 52w position | 6.4 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (5.8%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.6 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 1.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 2.2 |
| debt equity | 3.0 |
- ▸High IV: 104%
Catalyst
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.3 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:16d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.92
Upside
+8.3%
Downside
9.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 16d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 2.33>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 2.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.92 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Momentum at 6.8, and Sentiment at 6.1; the weakest are Growth at 4.0, Catalyst at 4.6, and Peer rank at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.92 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.