Value
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| p ocf | 5.2 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 21.4x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
- ▸Attractively valued
CSGP · Why this verdict
Why CoStar Group (CSGP) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
This real estate information services business delivers 22% revenue growth and beats earnings by an average of nearly 21% across four consecutive quarters, supported by a wide economic moat and exceptional free cash flow conversion — but a confirmed price downtrend with a death cross in force blocks a constructive entry; the 37.2% upside to analyst targets and a highly favorable risk/reward ratio of 8.86-to-1 make this a high-priority name to revisit once the technical backdrop stabilizes.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing at 22% year over year, a pace that far exceeds what the market typically demands to justify reinvestment at current valuations. Growth | Revenue growth stays above 15% year over year for 4 consecutive reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA slowdown in commercial real estate transaction volumes or platform pricing pressure could rapidly compress the growth rate, as high-growth compounders tend to re-rate sharply on the first deceleration signal. | ||
The company has beaten consensus estimates in all four of the most recent reported quarters with an average positive surprise of nearly 21%, suggesting that management consistently guides conservatively and delivers above expectations. Earnings | EPS surprise remains positive for each of the next four quarters, averaging above 10% per quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterThe unusually large average surprise of nearly 21% reflects a very low consensus bar; if analysts sharpen their models and revise estimates upward aggressively, the beat streak may continue on paper while the incremental upside signal fades. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed price downtrend — below its 200-day moving average with the 30-day slope declining at 13%, and a death cross in force — which blocks a constructive technical setup regardless of the fundamental quality. Momentum | Price closes above its 200-day moving average and the 50-day moving average crosses back above the 200-day for 4 consecutive weeks, confirming the downtrend has ended. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMACD has been improving and RSI sits at 46 despite the death cross, suggesting the selling pressure may be decelerating; the downtrend could resolve faster than a purely trend-following view implies. | ||
The business carries a wide economic moat and converts free cash flow at 808% of reported net income, reflecting strong cash generation that is understated by accounting earnings — a durable quality signal consistent with a high Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9. Quality | Free cash flow remains above 400% of net income and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or above for 4 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe extreme gap between free cash flow and net income is a structural accounting feature for this business model; if growth spending accelerates significantly, free cash flow could compress toward reported net income and narrow the quality premium. | ||
At current prices, there is 37.2% upside to the analyst consensus price target, and the risk/reward structure is highly favorable at 8.86-to-1 — a wide margin that offers significant room for error even if the recovery takes time. Price targets | Price appreciates to within 10% of the $43.97 take-profit target over the next 12 months as the fundamental thesis plays out. | →Stable |
| CounterA rich upside percentage is only meaningful if and when the downtrend resolves; if the technical deterioration continues, the gap between current price and analyst target could widen further before any convergence occurs. | ||
Revenue is growing at 22% year over year, a pace that far exceeds what the market typically demands to justify reinvestment at current valuations.
→StableGrowth
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 15% year over year for 4 consecutive reported quarters.
CounterA slowdown in commercial real estate transaction volumes or platform pricing pressure could rapidly compress the growth rate, as high-growth compounders tend to re-rate sharply on the first deceleration signal.
The company has beaten consensus estimates in all four of the most recent reported quarters with an average positive surprise of nearly 21%, suggesting that management consistently guides conservatively and delivers above expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise remains positive for each of the next four quarters, averaging above 10% per quarter.
CounterThe unusually large average surprise of nearly 21% reflects a very low consensus bar; if analysts sharpen their models and revise estimates upward aggressively, the beat streak may continue on paper while the incremental upside signal fades.
The stock is in a confirmed price downtrend — below its 200-day moving average with the 30-day slope declining at 13%, and a death cross in force — which blocks a constructive technical setup regardless of the fundamental quality.
↓DeterioratingMomentum
- Expectation
- Price closes above its 200-day moving average and the 50-day moving average crosses back above the 200-day for 4 consecutive weeks, confirming the downtrend has ended.
CounterMACD has been improving and RSI sits at 46 despite the death cross, suggesting the selling pressure may be decelerating; the downtrend could resolve faster than a purely trend-following view implies.
The business carries a wide economic moat and converts free cash flow at 808% of reported net income, reflecting strong cash generation that is understated by accounting earnings — a durable quality signal consistent with a high Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- Free cash flow remains above 400% of net income and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or above for 4 consecutive quarters.
CounterThe extreme gap between free cash flow and net income is a structural accounting feature for this business model; if growth spending accelerates significantly, free cash flow could compress toward reported net income and narrow the quality premium.
At current prices, there is 37.2% upside to the analyst consensus price target, and the risk/reward structure is highly favorable at 8.86-to-1 — a wide margin that offers significant room for error even if the recovery takes time.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price appreciates to within 10% of the $43.97 take-profit target over the next 12 months as the fundamental thesis plays out.
CounterA rich upside percentage is only meaningful if and when the downtrend resolves; if the technical deterioration continues, the gap between current price and analyst target could widen further before any convergence occurs.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.1 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.1 |
| Net margin | 0.4 |
| Current ratio | 7.6 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 808% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.1 |
- ▸Strong growth: 22% YoY
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 3.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -14.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
| erm sentiment | 4.6 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 59%
Insider
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $2,514,208 (0.022% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.2 |
| quality rank | 3.7 |
| growth rank | 7.2 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.4 |
| support resistance | 7.7 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.2 |
| beta | 8.6 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
- ▸High IV: 79%
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 3 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCKPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:4.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
4.27
Upside
+43.0%
Downside
10.1%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -72% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Growth at 8.1 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.1, Insider at 7.9, and Catalyst at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 2.7, Quality at 5.0, and Peer rank at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.27 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Beat Discipline
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Confirmed Price Downtrend
Trip ifPrice closes above its 200-day moving average and sustains that level for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P4Moat And Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 200% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Material Upside To Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice rises above $40, closing more than 90% of the gap to the $43.97 take-profit target.