Value
5.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.4 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 23.5x
CRCT · Why this verdict
Why Cricut (CRCT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bull case cites a strong 4-for-4 earnings beat streak, with catalyst notes confirming a 'perfect beat streak' and an average surprise of 111% over the last four quarters, ahead of the next report due in 31 days. Bull case | The beat streak should extend to a 5th consecutive quarter with a positive surprise when the company reports around August 4, 2026. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth notes flag declining revenue of -2%, so the outsized earnings beats may be driven by cost cuts or small estimate bases rather than genuine business momentum, which could eventually run out of room to keep beating. | ||
The analyst target has already been reached, and the engine's own risk-reward gate failed sharply with an asymmetry ratio of -3.55, reflecting a resistance-based take-profit just 2.9% above the current price against 6.7% modeled downside. Warnings | If this constraint holds, expect the stock to trade capped near its resistance level without material appreciation until a new, higher target is established. | →Stable |
| CounterThe upcoming earnings report in 31 days, backed by a perfect beat streak, could catalyze a break above resistance that resets both the technical target and any future analyst targets. | ||
Momentum failed the engine's gate at 3.4 versus a 4.5 threshold, a death-cross hard block also failed, and technical notes confirm a downtrend below the 200-day moving average with a -4.2% per 30-day slope. Engine gate (failed) | For the setup to become actionable, momentum needs to climb back above 4.5 and the death-cross block needs to clear over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRSI sits at a neutral, mid-range 49 rather than deeply oversold, and the setup is classified as range-bound rather than a confirmed breakdown, suggesting the stock may simply be consolidating. | ||
The insider signal reads bearish, with $810,990 in net insider selling over 90 days (0.087% of market cap) across 5 sell transactions against only 2 buys. Insider | The insider signal should shift away from bearish, with renewed insider buying or a decline in sell value, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe selling is characterized as only 'minor' in severity and involved zero C-level executives, suggesting it may reflect routine diversification rather than a strong negative signal. | ||
Key risks flag an extreme elevated put/call ratio of 50.00, suggesting options market positioning is skewed overwhelmingly toward puts relative to calls. Key risks | If this risk persists, expect the put/call ratio to remain elevated or bearish options positioning to continue over the next few months. | →Stable |
| CounterOptions-market max pain sits at $5.00, above the current $4.46 price, suggesting the extreme put/call reading may be distorted by thin options volume rather than reflecting a broad, liquid bearish consensus. | ||
The bull case cites a strong 4-for-4 earnings beat streak, with catalyst notes confirming a 'perfect beat streak' and an average surprise of 111% over the last four quarters, ahead of the next report due in 31 days.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend to a 5th consecutive quarter with a positive surprise when the company reports around August 4, 2026.
CounterGrowth notes flag declining revenue of -2%, so the outsized earnings beats may be driven by cost cuts or small estimate bases rather than genuine business momentum, which could eventually run out of room to keep beating.
The analyst target has already been reached, and the engine's own risk-reward gate failed sharply with an asymmetry ratio of -3.55, reflecting a resistance-based take-profit just 2.9% above the current price against 6.7% modeled downside.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- If this constraint holds, expect the stock to trade capped near its resistance level without material appreciation until a new, higher target is established.
CounterThe upcoming earnings report in 31 days, backed by a perfect beat streak, could catalyze a break above resistance that resets both the technical target and any future analyst targets.
Momentum failed the engine's gate at 3.4 versus a 4.5 threshold, a death-cross hard block also failed, and technical notes confirm a downtrend below the 200-day moving average with a -4.2% per 30-day slope.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- For the setup to become actionable, momentum needs to climb back above 4.5 and the death-cross block needs to clear over the next 12 months.
CounterRSI sits at a neutral, mid-range 49 rather than deeply oversold, and the setup is classified as range-bound rather than a confirmed breakdown, suggesting the stock may simply be consolidating.
The insider signal reads bearish, with $810,990 in net insider selling over 90 days (0.087% of market cap) across 5 sell transactions against only 2 buys.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- The insider signal should shift away from bearish, with renewed insider buying or a decline in sell value, over the next 12 months.
CounterThe selling is characterized as only 'minor' in severity and involved zero C-level executives, suggesting it may reflect routine diversification rather than a strong negative signal.
Key risks flag an extreme elevated put/call ratio of 50.00, suggesting options market positioning is skewed overwhelmingly toward puts relative to calls.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- If this risk persists, expect the put/call ratio to remain elevated or bearish options positioning to continue over the next few months.
CounterOptions-market max pain sits at $5.00, above the current $4.46 price, suggesting the extreme put/call reading may be distorted by thin options volume rather than reflecting a broad, liquid bearish consensus.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Cricut carries a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak into its next report, but the analyst target has already been reached with a deeply negative risk-reward gate, momentum has failed alongside a death-cross block, insiders have turned net sellers, and an extreme put/call ratio signals heavy bearish options positioning, keeping conviction and position sizing at essentially zero.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.8 |
| ROA | 6.1 |
| Gross margin | 6.9 |
| Op margin | 5.7 |
| Net margin | 5.2 |
| Current ratio | 9.2 |
| FCF quality | 7.4 |
| Moat | 5.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.0 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 3.9 |
| Price target | 2.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
4.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 3.7 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $810,990 (0.087% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.1 |
| quality rank | 5.3 |
| growth rank | 1.8 |
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.7 |
| support resistance | 3.7 |
| 52w position | 3.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.5 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 3.9 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 2.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 50.00
- ▸High IV: 331%
- ▸Above max pain $2
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 448.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-4.0=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-3.95
Upside
-31.3%
Downside
7.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Catalyst at 7.1 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-4.0=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.1, Quality at 6.5, and Value at 5.9; the weakest are Growth at 1.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 2.9, and Technical at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -3.95 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifThe company misses earnings estimates when it reports around August 4, 2026, or the surprise falls below 0%.
- P2Target Reached Deeply Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 0, moving out of negative territory from the current -3.55 reading.
- P3Failed Momentum And Death Cross Block
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5, clearing the engine's gate from the current 3.4 reading.
- P4Bearish Insider Selling
Trip ifNet insider buying exceeds $500,000 over a 90-day window, reversing the current bearish signal.
- P5Extreme Put Call Ratio
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 5.0, down sharply from the current extreme 50.00 reading.