Value
9.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
COUR · Why this verdict
Why Coursera (COUR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Coursera shows 94% revenue growth, deep value and heavy insider buying, but it is in a confirmed downtrend about 66% off its high, with quality below the floor.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Momentum is deeply negative: RSI 26, a death cross, price below the 200-day average with a slope of -6.5% over 30 days, and falling on-balance volume. Momentum breakdown | A base forms and price reclaims the 200-day moving average within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterCapitulation readings at RSI 26 often precede sharp reversals, so the downtrend could be near exhaustion. | ||
Quality scores 3.6, below the 4.0 floor, with operating margin near 0.2 on the component scale, although FCF margin is 34%. Quality breakdown | Operating margin improves and the quality score rises above 4.0. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA high FCF margin and moat component of 7.2 suggest the business economics are better than the low quality score implies. | ||
Coursera is growing revenue 94% YoY while trading at a forward P/E of 6.7x and a PEG of 0.04. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays high enough to keep the multiple compressed and eventually be rewarded with a re-rating. | →Stable |
| CounterA 94% growth figure may reflect an acquisition or one-time effect rather than organic momentum, which would make the cheap multiple a trap. | ||
Insiders bought $42.7M of stock, about 4.5% of market cap, and institutions are accumulating. Insider breakdown | Insider buying continues and institutional ownership rises over the next two quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterInsiders can be early on a falling stock, and buying while the price keeps sliding 66% off its high has not yet stopped the decline. | ||
The price of $3.74 is 36.7% below the analyst target of $5.11, giving 2.44 reward-to-risk against 15.0% downside. Targets | Price moves toward the $5.11 target as the downtrend stabilizes. | →Stable |
| CounterWith light analyst coverage the target is a weak signal, and targets can be cut quickly if the downtrend continues. | ||
Momentum is deeply negative: RSI 26, a death cross, price below the 200-day average with a slope of -6.5% over 30 days, and falling on-balance volume.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- A base forms and price reclaims the 200-day moving average within 12 months.
CounterCapitulation readings at RSI 26 often precede sharp reversals, so the downtrend could be near exhaustion.
Quality scores 3.6, below the 4.0 floor, with operating margin near 0.2 on the component scale, although FCF margin is 34%.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margin improves and the quality score rises above 4.0.
CounterA high FCF margin and moat component of 7.2 suggest the business economics are better than the low quality score implies.
Coursera is growing revenue 94% YoY while trading at a forward P/E of 6.7x and a PEG of 0.04.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays high enough to keep the multiple compressed and eventually be rewarded with a re-rating.
CounterA 94% growth figure may reflect an acquisition or one-time effect rather than organic momentum, which would make the cheap multiple a trap.
Insiders bought $42.7M of stock, about 4.5% of market cap, and institutions are accumulating.
↑ImprovingInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider buying continues and institutional ownership rises over the next two quarters.
CounterInsiders can be early on a falling stock, and buying while the price keeps sliding 66% off its high has not yet stopped the decline.
The price of $3.74 is 36.7% below the analyst target of $5.11, giving 2.44 reward-to-risk against 15.0% downside.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $5.11 target as the downtrend stabilizes.
CounterWith light analyst coverage the target is a weak signal, and targets can be cut quickly if the downtrend continues.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 7.4 |
| Op margin | 0.2 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.1 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 34%, FCF yield 38.5%)
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 94% YoY
Momentum
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 2.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 1.4 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 24, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.3 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 57%
Insider
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 9.0 |
| insider conviction | 5.8 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider buying — $42,664,094 (4.504% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.9 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 9.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.1 |
| support resistance | 8.3 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.0 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 4.4 |
| implied vol | 3.5 |
| beta | 6.0 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.6 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:87d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.42
Upside
+36.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 24, MACD bearish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -66% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.5<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 2.42.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.6, and Insider at 8.0; the weakest are Momentum at 3.5, Quality at 3.6, and Technical at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.42 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth Low Multiple
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 30% YoY from the current 94%.
- P2Heavy Insider Buying
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds $5M over 90 days after recent heavy buying.
- P3Confirmed Downtrend Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the $3.48 stop level from the current $3.74.
- P4Quality Below Floor
Trip ifFCF margin falls below 15% from the current 34%.
- P5Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $4.00 from the current $5.11.