Value
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.8 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.07
- ▸Attractively valued
CNMD · Why this verdict
Why CONMED (CNMD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CNMD has strung together four consecutive earnings beats averaging approximately 5.5% positive surprise, and free cash flow runs at 229% of net income — strong operational quality signals — but a confirmed price downtrend with the 200-day moving average slope declining at -5.5% over 30 days, a put/call ratio of 6.00, and less than 1% headroom to the analyst target make this a high-quality business in an unfavorable technical and positioning setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with the average positive surprise running near 5.5%, suggesting management has a consistent track record of delivering above market expectations. Earnings | The beat streak extends to six consecutive quarters, maintaining an average positive surprise above 3%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith revenue declining 1% year-over-year, the beats may be driven by cost containment rather than durable revenue growth — a harder lever to pull if further expense reduction becomes difficult. | ||
Free cash flow is 229% of net income and the Piotroski F-Score stands at 7 out of 9, reflecting strong operating cash generation that significantly exceeds reported net income — a sign that earnings are backed by real cash. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow to net income ratio remains above 150% for four consecutive quarters, confirming the cash conversion is structural rather than timing-driven. | →Stable |
| CounterA revenue decline of 1% sustained over multiple periods would eventually compress absolute cash generation even if conversion efficiency holds, narrowing the quality cushion. | ||
The stock is below the 200-day moving average with the slope declining at -5.5% over 30 days and on-balance volume falling, confirming a sustained downtrend that blocks near-term entry regardless of fundamental quality. Momentum breakdown | Price closes above the 200-day moving average for 20 consecutive trading days and on-balance volume reverses to rising, signaling the downtrend has ended. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterDowntrends in small-cap medical devices can reverse sharply on a single positive catalyst; the unbroken earnings beat streak suggests the business is performing well and the stock could recover quickly if sentiment shifts. | ||
A put/call ratio of 6.00 — a highly elevated level — and implied volatility at 126% indicate that options market participants are aggressively hedging or positioning against the stock, a near-term headwind that amplifies downside risk if negative news emerges. Risk breakdown | Put/call ratio falls below 2.0 for four consecutive weeks, indicating a meaningful unwinding of bearish options positioning. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn extreme put/call skew can mark a sentiment extreme and historically has, in some instances, preceded short-covering rallies when the feared catalyst fails to materialize. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with the average positive surprise running near 5.5%, suggesting management has a consistent track record of delivering above market expectations.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to six consecutive quarters, maintaining an average positive surprise above 3%.
CounterWith revenue declining 1% year-over-year, the beats may be driven by cost containment rather than durable revenue growth — a harder lever to pull if further expense reduction becomes difficult.
Free cash flow is 229% of net income and the Piotroski F-Score stands at 7 out of 9, reflecting strong operating cash generation that significantly exceeds reported net income — a sign that earnings are backed by real cash.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow to net income ratio remains above 150% for four consecutive quarters, confirming the cash conversion is structural rather than timing-driven.
CounterA revenue decline of 1% sustained over multiple periods would eventually compress absolute cash generation even if conversion efficiency holds, narrowing the quality cushion.
The stock is below the 200-day moving average with the slope declining at -5.5% over 30 days and on-balance volume falling, confirming a sustained downtrend that blocks near-term entry regardless of fundamental quality.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price closes above the 200-day moving average for 20 consecutive trading days and on-balance volume reverses to rising, signaling the downtrend has ended.
CounterDowntrends in small-cap medical devices can reverse sharply on a single positive catalyst; the unbroken earnings beat streak suggests the business is performing well and the stock could recover quickly if sentiment shifts.
A put/call ratio of 6.00 — a highly elevated level — and implied volatility at 126% indicate that options market participants are aggressively hedging or positioning against the stock, a near-term headwind that amplifies downside risk if negative news emerges.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio falls below 2.0 for four consecutive weeks, indicating a meaningful unwinding of bearish options positioning.
CounterAn extreme put/call skew can mark a sentiment extreme and historically has, in some instances, preceded short-covering rallies when the feared catalyst fails to materialize.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.8 |
| ROA | 2.8 |
| Gross margin | 7.1 |
| Op margin | 5.9 |
| Net margin | 2.1 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 233% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.6 |
| EPS growth | 4.2 |
Momentum
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 7.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 72)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.7 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.9 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 1.0 |
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.6 |
| support resistance | 3.3 |
| 52w position | 7.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.6 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 1.6 |
| implied vol | 4.5 |
| beta | 7.6 |
| debt equity | 6.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.76
Catalyst
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.6% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:84d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.33
Upside
-20.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Insider at 7.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.33 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Catalyst at 7.3, and Value at 7.1; the weakest are Growth at 3.4, Peer rank at 4.0, and Momentum at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.33 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Unbroken Four Quarter Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Exceptional Cash Conversion Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income ratio falls below 100% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Confirmed Downtrend Blocks Entry
Trip ifPrice closes above the 200-day moving average for 20 consecutive trading days.
- P4Elevated Options Skew Bearish Positioning
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 2.0 for 4 consecutive weeks.