Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $0.27
- Estimate
- $0.29
- Surprise
- -7.2%
- Revenue (period 2026-09-30)
- $3.29B
- Score at report (before → after)
- 5.3 → 5.5/10
Revenue source: xbrl.
How the report landed
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) missed the $0.29 estimate with adjusted EPS of $0.27 — a clear 7.2% shortfall. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (5.3/10) to Sell at 5.5/10 after the report — the engine's score rose despite the miss.
Coverage in the report window
- BTIG Reiterates Buy on Chipotle Mexican Grill, Maintains $45 Price Target — benzinga, 2026-10-29
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates CMG Sell at 5.5/10.
2 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's -7.2% surprise compares with a +0.8% four-quarter average.
What supports the rating
- Analyst upside: 34%
What argues against it
- Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
- Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5
- Weak growth
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $28.73
- Price target
- $38.61
- Stop
- $26.72
- Upside to target
- +34.4%
- Reward-to-risk
- 4.8:1
The stock trades at 26.4× trailing but 21.0× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Risk check: RSI 24 — a level conventionally read as oversold.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-10-29 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
CMG at TrendMatrix's latest read
Cyclical consumer names live and die on demand momentum — same-quarter comps and guidance carry more weight than the headline surprise.
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Market cap
- $36.36B
- P/E (fwd)
- 21.0
- P/E (ttm)
- 26.4
- 52-week range
- $27.31–$41.42
- Off 52-week high
- 30.6%
- RSI (14)
- 24
- Volume vs avg
- 1.33×
- Score today
- 5.5/10