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CMCLCaledonia Mining Corporation PlBuy Wait6.8·$23.67+5.34%
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Caledonia Mining Corporation Pl (CMCL) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Temporary headwind edge

Buy WaitValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Wait for pullback to $21.57. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $23.67. Engine's entry $21.57 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.

Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc engages in the exploration, development, and production of gold in Zimbabwe. The company is also involved in the exploration and development of mineral properties for precious metals. It owns a 64% stake in the gold-producing Blanket Mine, 100%... Read more

$23.67+53.4% A.UpsideScore 6.8/10#13 of 41 Gold
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield11.56%
IncomeYield2.46%(5y avg 4.11%)Payout16.05%sustainable
Entry $21.57(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $19.68Target $36.32(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 3.6:1
Analyst target$42.73+80.5%3 analysts
$36.32our TP
$23.67price
$42.73mean
$48

Wait for pullback to $21.57. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $23.67. Engine's entry $21.57 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 79. Deep value: 57% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-17

Recent Developments — Caledonia Mining Corporation Pl

Generated 2026-08-17T15:02:25Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Nov 9, 202683d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative momentum
Overbought (RSI 79)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.4
P/E (Fwd)4.4
Mkt Cap$434M
EV/EBITDA2.8
Profit Mgn24.1%
ROE27.9%
Rev Growth16.5%
Beta0.66
Dividend2.46%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.23bullish
IV104%elevated
Max Pain$30+26.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.1
Bollinger
0.7
52w Position
2.4
Gap
4.0

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
2.4
Ma Position
6.0
Macd
10.0
Overbought bear rally (RSI 79)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
79 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $17.10Resistance $23.73

Price Targets

$20
$22
$36
A.Upside+53.4%
A.R:R3.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %2.4%
Max %4.8%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-09 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CMCL stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $21.57. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $23.67. Engine's entry $21.57 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 79. Deep value: 57% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $36.32 (+53.4%), stop $19.68 (−20.3%), A.R:R 3.6:1. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CMCL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $36.32 (+53.4% upside). Target $36.32 (+53.4%), stop $19.68 (−20.3%), A.R:R 3.6:1. Stop-loss: $19.68.

What are the risks of investing in CMCL?

Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum; Overbought (RSI 79).

Is CMCL overvalued or undervalued?

Caledonia Mining Corporation Pl trades at a P/E of 6.4 (forward 4.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about CMCL?

9 analysts cover CMCL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $43.

What does Caledonia Mining Corporation Pl do?Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc engages in the exploration, development, and production of gold in Zimbabwe. The...

Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc engages in the exploration, development, and production of gold in Zimbabwe. The company is also involved in the exploration and development of mineral properties for precious metals. It owns a 64% stake in the gold-producing Blanket Mine, 100% stake in the Bilboes Sulphide Project, and the Motapa and Maligreen gold mining claims in Zimbabwe. The company was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Saint Helier, Jersey.

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