Value
6.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.1 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.4 |
| PEG | 8.7 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 23.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.72
CIX · Why this verdict
Why CompX International (CIX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CompX International has a pristine balance sheet and a 3.2% dividend, but weak momentum, consecutive earnings misses and a 23.2x forward multiple with no identified edge make it an avoid for now.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Momentum at 3.1 is below the engine's 4.5 threshold, with falling on-balance volume showing distribution despite the price holding above its 200-day average. Momentum breakdown | Momentum should recover above 4.5 with rising volume within ~12 months for the setup to improve. | — |
| CounterThe stock still sits above its 200-day moving average and is range-bound, so the weak score may reflect consolidation rather than a real downtrend. | ||
The company has posted consecutive earnings misses (2), signalling weak near-term execution against analyst expectations. Bear case | EPS should meet or beat estimates in the next reports, starting with the 2026-11-04 release. | — |
| CounterEstimates for a small-cap with lumpy quarters can be noisy, and one beat in the four-quarter window shows misses are not uniform. | ||
Earnings quality is flagged with free cash flow at only 74% of net income, so reported profits are not fully converting to cash. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should rise toward net income over ~12 months if the gap is timing-related. | Tripped— |
| CounterA 74% conversion is still solid in absolute terms and may reflect working-capital or capex timing rather than weak earnings. | ||
The company carries conservative debt levels and a perfect 9/9 Piotroski F-Score, supporting a 3.2% dividend and resilience through a downturn. Peer-rank breakdown | Financial-strength scores and debt levels should stay at current levels through the next 12 months. | — |
| CounterA strong balance sheet does not create returns on its own, and the lack of any identified edge means it may simply sit in a range. | ||
A forward P/E of 23.2x leaves little valuation cushion, and the engine finds no clear edge with upside exhausted, supporting an avoid sizing. Valuation breakdown | A re-rating or a clear earnings catalyst should emerge before the multiple looks justified. | — |
| CounterA PEG of 0.70 suggests growth could justify the multiple, and the stock may re-rate if earnings accelerate. | ||
Momentum at 3.1 is below the engine's 4.5 threshold, with falling on-balance volume showing distribution despite the price holding above its 200-day average.
—Momentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum should recover above 4.5 with rising volume within ~12 months for the setup to improve.
CounterThe stock still sits above its 200-day moving average and is range-bound, so the weak score may reflect consolidation rather than a real downtrend.
The company has posted consecutive earnings misses (2), signalling weak near-term execution against analyst expectations.
—Bear case
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat estimates in the next reports, starting with the 2026-11-04 release.
CounterEstimates for a small-cap with lumpy quarters can be noisy, and one beat in the four-quarter window shows misses are not uniform.
Earnings quality is flagged with free cash flow at only 74% of net income, so reported profits are not fully converting to cash.
Tripped—Quality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should rise toward net income over ~12 months if the gap is timing-related.
CounterA 74% conversion is still solid in absolute terms and may reflect working-capital or capex timing rather than weak earnings.
The company carries conservative debt levels and a perfect 9/9 Piotroski F-Score, supporting a 3.2% dividend and resilience through a downturn.
—Peer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Financial-strength scores and debt levels should stay at current levels through the next 12 months.
CounterA strong balance sheet does not create returns on its own, and the lack of any identified edge means it may simply sit in a range.
A forward P/E of 23.2x leaves little valuation cushion, and the engine finds no clear edge with upside exhausted, supporting an avoid sizing.
—Valuation breakdown
- Expectation
- A re-rating or a clear earnings catalyst should emerge before the multiple looks justified.
CounterA PEG of 0.70 suggests growth could justify the multiple, and the stock may re-rate if earnings accelerate.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.0 |
| ROA | 6.7 |
| Gross margin | 2.4 |
| Op margin | 8.2 |
| Net margin | 6.8 |
| Current ratio | 6.3 |
| FCF quality | 5.6 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 74% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
| EPS growth | 8.6 |
Momentum
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 5.4 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
5.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $44,395 (0.009% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.3 |
| quality rank | 4.5 |
| growth rank | 3.6 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.7 |
| support resistance | 2.9 |
| 52w position | 9.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 7.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.9 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 3.1%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:29d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
13.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 6.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.00 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 6.7, Value at 6.6, and Growth at 6.5; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.6, Momentum at 4.0, and Technical at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Negative Price Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from the current 3.1.
- P2Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Earnings Cash Conversion GapTripped
Trip ifFree cash flow rises above 90% of net income from the current 74%.
- P4Fortress Balance Sheet
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 from the current 9.
- P5Full Valuation No Edge
Trip ifForward P/E falls below 18x from the current 23.2x.